1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Active equity fund positions have reached the highest level of the year, with continuous increases in the communication industry position. The market's broad - based indices generally rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3700 points. TMT industries performed strongly, while dividend - related industries such as banking and coal were weak. [4][12] - Active equity public funds have been continuously increasing their positions, and the overall position has reached the highest level of the year. Even relatively cautious "fixed - income +" funds have been continuously raising their positions. In terms of style, public funds have focused on the growth sector and shifted towards small - cap stocks. [4][12] - Public funds are optimistic about the communication industry, which has seen the most significant position increase in the past three months. The proportion in the consumer sector has decreased, and the allocation ratio of the food and beverage industry has reached a multi - year low. It is recommended to shift the allocation towards the growth sector. [4][12] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: Last week (2025/8/11 - 2025/8/15), A - share broad - based indices generally rose, with the ChiNext Index rising significantly. As of 2025/8/15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77 points, up about 1.70% week - on - week; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11634.67 points, up about 4.55%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2534.22 points, up about 8.58%; and the CSI 300 closed at 4202.35 points, up about 2.37%. [13] - **Industry Index Performance**: TMT and non - banking industries performed well last week. The top - performing industries in terms of weekly returns were communication, comprehensive finance, non - bank finance, electronics, and computer, with returns of 7.11%, 7.07%, 6.57%, 6.44%, and 6.31% respectively. The bottom - performing industries included banking, steel, textile and apparel, coal, and construction, with returns of - 3.22%, - 2.00%, - 1.36%, - 0.77%, and - 0.59% respectively. [16] 3.2 Public Funds - **Net Value Performance**: The average net value change of active partial - stock funds last week was 3.47%. Among the 4468 funds, 3990 rose, accounting for 89.30%. The top five funds in terms of net value performance were Yongying Digital Economy Smart Selection Hybrid A, SDIC UBS Jinbao Flexible Allocation Hybrid, SDIC UBS Advanced Manufacturing Hybrid, SDIC UBS New Energy Hybrid A, and SDIC UBS Industry Trend Hybrid A, with weekly net value changes of 18.81%, 17.88%, 17.34%, 17.29%, and 17.01% respectively. [4][18] - **Position Calculation**: As of 2025/8/15, the average position of active equity funds was about 89.14%. Among them, the average position of common stock funds was about 91.41% (up 0.86 pct from the previous week), the average position of partial - stock hybrid funds was about 88.93% (up 1.90 pct), the average position of allocation funds was about 88.23% (up 2.61 pct), and the average position of "fixed - income +" funds was about 23.48%, up 0.43 pct from the previous week. [2][22] - **Style Trends**: Recently, public funds have mainly been allocated to the small - cap growth style. As of 2025/8/15, the positions of active partial - stock funds in large - cap growth, large - cap value, mid - cap growth, mid - cap value, small - cap growth, and small - cap value were 27.52% (up 0.19 pct from the previous week), 9.4% (down 0.69 pct), 9.51% (down 0.37 pct), 5.96% (up 0.3 pct), 43% (up 1.06 pct), and 4.62% (down 0.5 pct) respectively. [3][29] - **Industry Trends**: From the perspective of the weighted average of stock - holding market value, the industries with a significant increase in the allocation ratio of active equity funds last week were communication (about 6.19%, up 0.86 pct from the previous week), non - ferrous metals (about 4.31%, up 0.42 pct), petroleum and petrochemicals (about 1.17%, up 0.33 pct), comprehensive (about 0.52%, up 0.30 pct), and real estate (about 1.03%, up 0.24 pct). The industries with a significant decrease were food and beverage (about 3.96%, down 0.62 pct), electronics (about 15.99%, down 0.54 pct), national defense and military industry (about 5.05%, down 0.52 pct), banking (about 3.57%, down 0.43 pct), and textile and apparel (about 1.09%, down 0.32 pct). [4][32] - **ETF Market Tracking**: Last week (2025/8/11 - 2025/8/15), domestic stock ETFs had a net outflow of about 23.799 billion yuan, cross - border ETFs had a net inflow of about 16.335 billion yuan, bond ETFs had a net inflow of about 12.633 billion yuan, and commodity ETFs had a net outflow of about 1.719 billion yuan. [39] - **Newly Established Funds**: This year, 171 active equity funds have been newly issued, with a total scale of about 68.102 billion yuan, about 130.65% of the same period in 2024; 356 passive equity funds have been newly issued, with a total scale of 184.103 billion yuan, about 320.38% of the same period in 2024. [44] 3.3 Main/Active Capital Flows - **Main Capital Flow**: Last week, the main capital flowed into non - bank and electronics sectors and flowed out of national defense and military industry and machinery sectors. [5][56] - **Active Capital Flow**: The net main - buying amount last week was about - 1016.139 billion yuan. Active capital flowed into non - bank and electronics sectors. The industries with the highest net main - buying amounts were non - bank finance, electronics, computer, communication, and non - ferrous metals; the industries with significant outflows were machinery, national defense and military industry, banking, power and public utilities, and medicine. [5][56]

- The report identifies three main industry models: the industry mainline model, the industry rotation model, and the left-side inventory reversal model [1][6][8] - The industry mainline model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify leading industries. The construction process involves calculating the price changes over 20, 40, and 60 trading days, normalizing these rankings, and averaging them to get the final RSI. If an industry shows an RSI greater than 90% by the end of April, it is likely to be a leading industry for the year [2][12][14] - The industry rotation model is based on a framework of prosperity, trend, and congestion. It suggests a balanced allocation with specific weights for different industries, such as 20% for banks, 17% for non-ferrous metals, and 15% for steel. The model has shown strong performance, with an annualized excess return of 14.1% and an IR of 1.54 [2][16][18] - The left-side inventory reversal model focuses on industries that are in a state of distress or have recently rebounded. It aims to capture the reversal in industries with low inventory pressure and high analyst expectations. The model has shown significant returns, with a 2023 absolute return of 13.4% and an excess return of 17.0% [27][28][29] - The industry mainline model's backtest results for 2024 showed that industries like coal, electric utilities, home appliances, banks, oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and automotive had significant returns when their RSI exceeded 90% [2][12][13] - The industry rotation model's backtest results showed an annualized return of 21.2%, an excess return of 14.1%, an IR of 1.54, and a maximum drawdown of -8.0%. The model's performance in 2023, 2024, and 2025 showed excess returns of 7.3%, 5.7%, and 4.1%, respectively [16][17][21] - The left-side inventory reversal model's backtest results showed an absolute return of 25.9% in 2024 and an excess return of 14.8%. In 2025, the model achieved an absolute return of 13.6% and an excess return of 3.5% [27][28][29] - The industry rotation model's ETF configuration showed an annualized excess return of 15.8% and an IR of 1.8. The model's performance in 2023, 2024, and 2025 showed excess returns of 6.0%, 5.3%, and 8.1%, respectively [21][22][26] - The industry prosperity stock selection model showed an annualized return of 25.8%, an excess return of 20.0%, an IR of 1.7, and a maximum drawdown of -15.4%. The model's performance in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 showed excess returns of 10.2%, 10.4%, 4.6%, and 4.7%, respectively [22][23][24] - The recommended industries for the left-side inventory reversal model include agricultural chemicals, general steel, building decoration, precious metals, optical and optoelectronics, special materials, components, and passenger cars [27][28][29]

行业轮动 6 月观点。 单 因子多策略推荐配置的多头行业为非银行金融、电子、银行。复合因子策略推荐 的多头行业为非银行金融、医药、建材、基础化工、钢铁。 风险提示： 模型失效风险、因子失效风险、海外市场波动风险。 报告导读： 风格轮动模型层面， 2025Q2 ，宏观量价双驱大小盘、价值成长模型分别发 出大盘、价值信号。 5 月，风格轮动模型预判获得持续印证。行业轮动模型层面， 5 月， 单因子多策略模型表现较优，月收益率为 3.31% ，相对基准的超额为 0.33% 。 风格层面， 2025Q2 ，大小盘双驱轮动策略发出大盘信号 ,5 月，大盘占优，相对小盘的月超额为 0.56% 。 2025Q2 ，价值成长轮动策略发出价值信号 ;5 月，价值占优，相对成长的月超额为 3.40% 。 风格轮动模型预判获得持续印证，市场偏向大盘、价值风格。 行业轮动模型层面， 5 月单因子多策略模 型表现较优，月收益率为 3.31% ，相对基准的超额为 0.33% 。 6 月，单因子策略、复合因子策略推荐 配置的多头行业均涵盖非银金融行业。 大小盘风格轮动 Q2 配置信号。 根据 2025 年 03 月 31 日的最新数据， ...

金融工程/[Table_Date] 2025.06.05 | 风格及行业观点月报（2025.06） | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 风格轮动模型持续得到验证，行业轮动两模型均推荐配置非银 | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | 本报告导读： | | 卓洢萱(分析师) | | 风格轮动模型层面，2025Q2，宏观量价双驱大小盘、价值成长模型分别发出大盘、 | | 021-38676666 | | 价值信号。5 月，风格轮动模型预判获得持续印证。行业轮动模型层面，5 月，单因 子多策略模型表现较优，月收益率为 3.31%，相对基准的超额为 0.33%。 | 登记编号 | S0880525040128 | 投资要点： 基 本 面 量 化 月 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 程 6947146 [Table_Summary] 风格层面，2025Q2，大小盘双驱轮动策略发出大盘信号,5 月，大盘 占优，相对小盘的月超额为 0.56%。2025Q2， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, highlighting it as one of the sectors with significant net inflows of capital [2][9]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has seen a net inflow of 27.05 billion in the past 5 days, making it the top industry for capital inflow [9]. - The report utilizes a model that assesses industries based on six factors: capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold conditions, and earnings, with the automotive sector scoring high in these evaluations [13][14]. - The consensus stock selection model identified stocks such as Baiyang Co., Zhongchong Co., and Hunan Silver as top picks based on high-frequency capital flow and price movement similarity [16][17]. Industry Capital Inflow Statistics - In the past 5 days, the automotive industry led with a net inflow of 27.05 billion, followed by home appliances with 8.44 billion and machinery equipment with 5.26 billion [9]. - Over the past 30 days, the automotive sector experienced a net outflow of 446.97 billion, indicating a contrasting trend compared to the recent 5-day performance [10][12]. A-Share Industry Rotation Model - The A-share industry rotation model ranks the automotive sector among the top performers, alongside non-bank financials and communications, based on a composite score derived from the six factors [14][15]. - The automotive sector received a high score in capital and valuation, indicating strong investor interest and favorable market conditions [15]. Consensus Stock Selection - The consensus stock selection model highlighted industries such as feed, precious metals, and animal health II as high-performing sectors, with specific stocks selected based on their capital flow and price movement [16][17].