巴拉萨 - 萨缪尔逊效应

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实际汇率三年累贬15%,人民币资产和外汇资产的配置选择题
和讯· 2025-07-22 10:39
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 20th anniversary of the "7·21" exchange rate reform, highlighting the significant changes in the RMB exchange rate since 1994, including a nearly 60% appreciation from 2005 to early 2022, followed by a depreciation of over 15% since 2022, indicating a deviation from reasonable valuation [1][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate has shown a trend of appreciation until 2022, but has since weakened significantly, reaching its lowest level in nearly a decade by March 2025 [1][4]. - The depreciation of the RMB is attributed to a combination of nominal effective exchange rate decline and a decrease in China's price level relative to trade partners, with the latter accounting for two-thirds of the decline [5][6]. - Despite a record trade surplus, the actual depreciation of the RMB has not been offset, indicating that lower prices have not translated into expected competitiveness in international markets [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Policy Recommendations - Demand insufficiency is identified as the primary reason for the RMB's depreciation, exacerbated by price stickiness and market coordination failures [6][7]. - The article notes that while economic growth has shown resilience, investment growth has slowed, particularly in real estate, which has seen a significant decline [8][9]. - CF40 suggests that expanding domestic demand should be the core focus of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year, with fiscal spending being a critical lever to stimulate total demand [10][11]. - The projected fiscal budget for 2025 indicates a significant increase in public spending, which could effectively boost total demand if achieved [10][11]. - Urban renewal is highlighted as a suitable area for government-led public investment to stimulate economic activity [12].
卢锋:可适时降准降息,“大水漫灌”刺激经济不可取
和讯· 2025-05-06 10:59
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on China's economy, emphasizing the need for effective policy responses to external shocks and the importance of domestic demand stimulation in the current economic context [2][4][18]. Group 1: Economic Context and Historical Comparison - The article highlights the differences in China's economic development stages compared to previous crises, noting that per capita GDP has significantly increased, reaching approximately $13,451 in 2024, nearing high-income status [7]. - It compares the external demand shocks from the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, indicating that the average negative GDP impact was 0.63 percentage points from 1999-2001 and 1.87 percentage points from 2009-2011, totaling a cumulative impact of 5.6 percentage points [3]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, with average GDP growth from 2022-2024 projected at 4.4%, significantly below potential growth rates [8][9]. Group 2: External Economic Environment - China's trade surplus reached a record high in 2024, with total exports amounting to $3.6 trillion and a surplus close to $1 trillion, accounting for approximately 36%-37% of global trade surplus [9][10]. - The article notes that the US has shifted from monetary to fiscal stimulus policies, leading to challenges in maintaining export growth and trade surpluses due to rising inflation and fiscal discipline concerns [10]. - The structure of China's trade surplus has diversified, with significant growth in high-tech product surpluses, indicating competitive advantages in both high and low-end products [11]. Group 3: Policy Responses and Recommendations - The article suggests that China should adopt direct measures to counteract the US's trade pressures while maintaining an open dialogue for resolution [18]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to stimulate domestic demand, particularly through targeted fiscal transfers to low-income populations, to enhance consumption and economic rebalancing [18]. - The article advocates for structural reforms to improve social security systems, which have historically supported consumption growth and reduced trade surplus levels [17].