今天美日环境以及东南亚自身体质与当年大不相同 美国数据转弱、日本央行加息，是上周风险资产市场的两条主线。由于美国数据残缺不齐，加上临近圣 诞假期，美债市场反应不大。美股横盘、欧股升、亚股跌。日本加息，日本国债下挫，十年期收益率更 冲至2.04%的历史性高点。美元指数回升，金价升，银价大涨，石油价格下跌，大宗商品走强。 被延迟的美国通胀数据出炉了，11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，为2021年以来最小的物价上涨，低于彭博 社调查的所有经济学家的预测，同月CPI报2.7%。对此数据不宜过度解读，有经济学家称之为"瑞士芝 士"，意指充满了空洞。由于政府停摆，许多统计工作无法按程序完成，大量细分数据被留空，包括食 品、能源等，严重影响了数据质量与可比性。 数据质量上最受质疑的是，占CPI数据约三分之一比重的房租，由于细分数据未能妥善搜集，整体数据 靠人为处理。租金主项环比上涨0.06%，业主等价租金（OER）上涨0.14%，意味着租金在9月之后几乎 没有上涨，与观察到的情景不符。接下来需要逐步修正。笔者相信美国通胀在放缓，但是最新数据受到 过多扰动，无法为决策者及市场提供可靠的统计支持。 非农就业数据也以双月合并的形 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of learning from historical financial crises, particularly the Asian financial crisis, to establish effective early warning systems for monitoring global economic risks [2] Group 1: Economic Risks - The former president of the Asian Development Bank highlights the need to monitor bubble risks, particularly in real estate and stock prices, which may rise too quickly in Asian countries [2] - There is a warning about three specific risks currently facing financial markets: high government debt accumulation, potential overvaluation of stock prices due to expectations from the AI revolution, and excessive private debt with inadequate regulation of non-bank institutions [2]

Group 1 - The article draws parallels between the current economic challenges faced by China and the 1997 financial crisis in South Korea, highlighting issues such as high local government debt, rising corporate leverage, and a declining GDP growth rate [1][8] - It emphasizes the similarities in international conditions, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices, which echo the circumstances leading to the 1997 crisis [1][8] Group 2 - The mechanisms behind the 1997 crisis are analyzed, noting that the U.S. Federal Reserve's abrupt shift from a loose monetary policy to a tightening one triggered the crisis, with South Korea's corporate debt skyrocketing to alarming levels [3][5] - South Korea's dependency on the U.S. for political and military support is highlighted as a factor that compromised its economic sovereignty, leading to a liquidity crisis when international capital flowed back to the U.S. [5][6] Group 3 - The article discusses the severe consequences of the 1997 crisis, including a dramatic depreciation of the Korean won, a significant drop in the stock market, and the bankruptcy of major conglomerates [5][6] - It mentions the humiliating terms of the IMF bailout, which required South Korea to open its financial markets and allowed foreign entities to take control of local businesses, creating a dependency on international capital [6][8] Group 4 - The article concludes with a warning for China to learn from South Korea's experience, advocating for the maintenance of monetary policy independence, control over debt levels, and the establishment of a multi-layered defense system to safeguard economic stability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on China's economy, emphasizing the need for effective policy responses to external shocks and the importance of domestic demand stimulation in the current economic context [2][4][18]. Group 1: Economic Context and Historical Comparison - The article highlights the differences in China's economic development stages compared to previous crises, noting that per capita GDP has significantly increased, reaching approximately $13,451 in 2024, nearing high-income status [7]. - It compares the external demand shocks from the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, indicating that the average negative GDP impact was 0.63 percentage points from 1999-2001 and 1.87 percentage points from 2009-2011, totaling a cumulative impact of 5.6 percentage points [3]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, with average GDP growth from 2022-2024 projected at 4.4%, significantly below potential growth rates [8][9]. Group 2: External Economic Environment - China's trade surplus reached a record high in 2024, with total exports amounting to $3.6 trillion and a surplus close to $1 trillion, accounting for approximately 36%-37% of global trade surplus [9][10]. - The article notes that the US has shifted from monetary to fiscal stimulus policies, leading to challenges in maintaining export growth and trade surpluses due to rising inflation and fiscal discipline concerns [10]. - The structure of China's trade surplus has diversified, with significant growth in high-tech product surpluses, indicating competitive advantages in both high and low-end products [11]. Group 3: Policy Responses and Recommendations - The article suggests that China should adopt direct measures to counteract the US's trade pressures while maintaining an open dialogue for resolution [18]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to stimulate domestic demand, particularly through targeted fiscal transfers to low-income populations, to enhance consumption and economic rebalancing [18]. - The article advocates for structural reforms to improve social security systems, which have historically supported consumption growth and reduced trade surplus levels [17].

Group 1 - The article outlines five significant fluctuations in the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) exchange rate against the US Dollar, highlighting historical events that influenced these changes [1] - In 1985, the Plaza Accord led to a substantial appreciation of the NTD from 36 to 28 against the USD between 1985 and 1988 [1] - The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis caused the NTD to depreciate from 27.5 to 32.6 by the end of the year, marking a general trend of depreciation [1] Group 2 - In 2015, a significant decline in Taiwan's exports and economic growth resulted in the NTD depreciating from 31.6 to 33.8, a decrease of approximately 6.96% [1] - The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 led to a shift in Taiwan's economic environment, with the NTD appreciating from 30.10 to 28.67, an increase of 4.7% [1] - Concerns over a potential US recession and the exposure of Taiwan's life insurance industry to USD assets have recently triggered hedging operations, causing the NTD to briefly surpass the 30 mark against the USD [1]