2026.01. 26 本文字数：2170，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 随着地缘政治紧张局势高烧不退、全球财政风险忧虑卷土重来，投资者当地时间26日开盘再次涌向 贵金属寻求避险。 截至第一财经发稿时，纽约商品交易所2月交割的COMEX黄金期货上涨超2%，突破5100美元关口， 2月白银期货日内飙升超6%，一度站上108美元/盎司，或创下史上最大月涨幅纪录。 黄金再迎里程碑 近期从格陵兰岛、委内瑞拉到中东的多个冲突热点都推高了地缘政治风险，进一步凸显黄金对冲不确 定性的属性，成为这一贵金属价格飙升的重要原因。上周末，美国总统特朗普威胁对加拿大加征 100%关税，再次引发外界对全球经济不确定性担忧。 汇丰银行在最新研报中表示："黄金和白银价格近期的进一步上涨，与地缘经济问题密切相关。" 与此同时，美元弱势也提振了大宗商品市场，投资者关注可能再次到来的政府停摆。26日盘初，美 元指数下跌0.4%，报97.11，创近四个月新低。23日日本政府表态将采取措施应对日元回落波动背后 的市场投机行为，并警告称已做好干预准备，此后投资者将持续密切关注日本股市与日元走势。巴克 莱银行认为："干预预期升温推动日 ...

Core Insights - The conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela is fundamentally a result of geopolitical competition and resource contention, impacting both non-ferrous and precious metal markets [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risk Transmission Mechanism - Venezuela's metal resources are highly concentrated, with the Orinoco iron ore belt holding 92% of the country's total iron ore reserves, estimated at 21 billion tons [2] - Historical U.S. sanctions have significantly disrupted global metal supply chains, with a 42% drop in Venezuela's metal exports in 2023 due to expanded sanctions on nickel, aluminum, and palladium [3] - Regional conflicts disrupt logistics, affecting transportation systems and increasing shipping costs, particularly for metals reliant on maritime transport [4][5] Group 2: Key Metal Supply and Demand Analysis - Aluminum and bauxite supply risks are heightened due to Venezuela's low production capacity and historical economic challenges, leading to negligible impact on global supply [6][7] - Copper production remains stable, but potential regional instability could disrupt output and exacerbate raw material shortages [10] - Nickel exports from Venezuela have plummeted, with production effectively at zero, reshaping the global nickel market dynamics [11] Group 3: Regional Market Differentiation Trends - The Venezuelan crisis has prompted a restructuring of metal trade patterns in Latin America, with China emerging as a key alternative partner for Venezuelan exports [22] - Asian buyers are increasingly cautious about Venezuelan metal supplies, leading to a shift towards sourcing from Africa and Australia due to political stability and resource availability [23][24] Group 4: Corporate Emergency Strategy Matrix - Companies are advised to establish safety thresholds for raw material inventories and apply force majeure clauses in long-term contracts to mitigate risks [4] - The use of futures hedging tools is recommended to optimize risk management strategies in response to market volatility [4]