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“易中天”被高估了?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-26 01:08
本文来自格隆汇专栏:虎嗅,作者:董必政 随着股市持续上涨,大A"恐高症"来了。 说到当下的A股,"易中天"(新易胜、中际旭创、天孚通信)、"纪连海"(寒武纪、工业富联、海光信息)均属于AI算力概念股,因涨幅巨大 而被股民津津乐道。他们会调侃:"易中天"调整,"纪连海"接下所有。 其中,新易胜、中际旭创、天孚通信自2025年以来分别上涨了320%、231%、174%;寒武纪、工业富联、海光信息自2025年分别上涨了 118%、182%、63%。 就在"易中天"屡创新高之际,知名金融机构摩根士丹利开始看空了。 摩根士丹利认为,光模块行业的基本面利好已基本反应在股价中。 新易盛和天孚通信的估值已飙升至历史+1标准差以上。其中, 新易盛的前 瞻市盈率从年初的8倍跃升至20倍,中际旭创也从14倍涨到24倍。 摩根士丹利对多只光模块相关股票进行了评级调整,将新易盛、天孚通信的评级下调至减持。 打个比方:GPU是"一秒能削100个苹果的顶级厨师",而带宽瓶颈就是"每秒只能递1个苹果的服务员"——厨师再厉害,也只能站在原地等苹 果,一身本事全白费。 而光模块的作用,就是把"服务员"换成"每秒能递200个苹果的自动传菜机",让 ...
看空“易中天”,怕高就是苦命人
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-20 09:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, particularly focusing on the "Yizhongtian" stocks, which are heavily influenced by AI computing power and have seen significant price increases. The article raises questions about whether these stocks are overvalued or undervalued and how investors should respond to the high valuations [1][2]. Industry Trends - The competition in AI computing power is not only about GPU capabilities but also about data transmission efficiency, where optical modules play a crucial role. The article compares GPUs to top chefs and optical modules to waitstaff, emphasizing the importance of efficient data transfer [2]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to rise due to the rapid development of AI, leading to upgrades in transmission speeds. The transition from 400Gb/s to 800Gb/s optical modules is already reflected in the performance of "Yizhongtian" stocks [3][5]. Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, the revenue and profit growth of key companies in the optical module sector were significant. For instance, Xinyi Sheng reported a revenue of 10.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 282.64%, while Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue was 14.79 billion yuan, up 36.95% [4]. - The sales volume of optical modules also showed strong growth, with Zhongji Xuchuang selling 9.05 million units, a 45.96% increase, and Xinyi Sheng selling 6.95 million units, a 112.53% increase [9]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with a 69% year-on-year increase in Q2 2025, totaling $87.4 billion. This trend is expected to continue, with projected capital expenditures for major cloud providers reaching $333.8 billion in 2025 [10][11]. - Chinese internet giants are also ramping up their capital expenditures, with a 99.38% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, totaling 55.01 billion yuan [11]. Future Projections - The market for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to grow rapidly, with predictions indicating that the overall market size will exceed $22 billion by 2030 [5]. - By 2026, the performance of 1.6T optical modules is anticipated to start reflecting in the financial results of companies in the sector [8]. Valuation Considerations - Analysts have incorporated the expected performance from 1.6T optical modules and increased capital expenditures into their 2026 earnings forecasts, predicting significant profit growth for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [16]. - The article suggests that the current market environment may allow for higher valuations, with a reasonable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for "Yizhongtian" stocks estimated between 30-40 times, potentially increasing to 40-50 times if liquidity improves [18][19].