平价购买力
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中国真实GDP已超美国?被低估的巨人与泡沫!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 10:18
Group 1 - The article argues that the commonly cited figure of the US GDP at $29 trillion is misleading and does not reflect the true economic strength of the country [1][3] - It claims that China's real GDP could be as high as $44 trillion, surpassing the US by $15 trillion, highlighting a significant discrepancy in economic measurement methods [3][5] - The article emphasizes that China uses a production-based method for GDP calculation, focusing on actual output, while the US employs an expenditure-based method that may inflate GDP figures [5][7] Group 2 - The US has seen a 35.8% increase in nominal GDP over the past five years, but its electricity production only grew by 4.9%, indicating a disconnect between GDP growth and real economic activity [3][5] - In contrast, China's GDP grew by 31.5% alongside a 42% increase in electricity production, suggesting a more robust economic performance [5][7] - The article critiques the US financial market, describing it as a significant bubble, with a market capitalization of $68 trillion compared to a GDP of $29 trillion, resulting in a market-to-GDP ratio of 218% [10][12] Group 3 - The article points out that the US economy heavily relies on sectors like healthcare and financial transactions, which may not represent true value creation, as seen in the high costs of medical care [12][14] - It contrasts this with China's efficient infrastructure spending, noting that the cost of high-speed rail in China is significantly lower than in California, indicating a more sustainable economic model [12][14] - The article concludes that China has already surpassed the US in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) since 2014, reflecting a more accurate measure of economic strength based on consumer purchasing power [14][16] Group 4 - The article asserts that China's economic strategy focuses on real production and asset growth rather than financial engineering or speculative bubbles [16][18] - It emphasizes the importance of optimizing state-owned enterprises and advancing technological upgrades to enhance economic stability and growth [16][18] - The narrative suggests that the ongoing global recognition of the discrepancies in US GDP figures will lead to a shift in perception regarding true economic power, with China positioned as a leader [16][18]
中国真实GDP比美国多出10万亿美元?美国是气球中国是实心球!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 13:12
Core Viewpoint - The debate over whether China's GDP surpasses that of the United States has intensified amid growing competition between the two nations, with claims that China's GDP has already exceeded that of the U.S. when calculated using different methodologies [1][7]. Economic Comparison - According to U.S. calculations, the U.S. remains the leader in GDP, but this is challenged by claims of a more accurate representation of China's economic strength [1]. - Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate, criticized the U.S. economy for relying on statistical manipulation to create an illusion of prosperity without corresponding production capacity [2]. Contribution to GDP - The contribution of intellectual property to the U.S. GDP is reported at 41%, while financial transactions contribute 12.7% and healthcare spending accounts for 17.6% [2][3]. - The high costs of healthcare in the U.S. are highlighted, with examples of significant expenses for basic medical needs, indicating inefficiencies in the system [3]. Energy Consumption as a Productivity Indicator - China's electricity generation increased by 42% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 10.1 trillion kilowatt-hours, while the U.S. saw only a 4.9% increase to 4.3 trillion kilowatt-hours, suggesting a weaker U.S. real economy [5]. - The energy consumption of a country is presented as a key indicator of its productivity, with China's growth in this area outpacing that of the U.S. [5]. Purchasing Power Parity - When using purchasing power parity (PPP) for comparison, China's economy is estimated to exceed the U.S. by $10 trillion, and by $15 trillion when using U.S. calculation methods [7]. - The metaphor of a balloon versus a solid ball is used to illustrate the perceived superficiality of U.S. economic strength compared to the tangible assets of China's economy [7].
人民币对美元汇率:平价购买力计算方式的盲点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 02:57
Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the comparison of the value of the Chinese Yuan (RMB) and the US Dollar (USD), highlighting that the RMB has not consistently appreciated over the decades, with a significant depreciation observed from 1979 to 2025 [2] - The concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) is discussed as a valuable tool for evaluating a country's economic balance, but it is argued that using PPP to define the actual exchange rate of RMB against USD is flawed, as it does not account for international pricing mechanisms [4] - The article emphasizes that while PPP can serve as a reference tool, it cannot fully capture the dynamic nature of market conditions, supply and demand, and the real value of currencies [6] Group 2 - The long-standing trade deficit between China and the US is attributed to China's low labor costs and high purchasing power, which does not necessarily indicate that the RMB is more valuable [8] - The article points out that the low living costs in China, combined with a hardworking population, have led to overcapacity and squeezed corporate profits, raising questions about the true value of labor in the market [8] - The potential for a financial crisis is mentioned if foreign exchange controls are lifted, suggesting that the true value of the RMB would be tested in a freely convertible currency environment [8]