注：本文发表于《财贸经济》2025年第5期，转载请注明出处。为方便阅读，此版本省略了技术细节、参考文献与脚注。全文请参见中国知网。 内容提要：使用1960—2021年全球191个经济体数据，本文系统考察了实际汇率升值对经济总量赶超的作用。研究发现，第一，实际汇率小幅升值（约4% 左右）不仅有助于国内经济增长，而且在统计层对经济赶超起到拉动作用；第二，经济增长是实现经济赶超的根本手段，对经济赶超的贡献度接近80%， 实际汇率的贡献度约为20%；第三，在经济增长较快时期，实际汇率发挥着更大的正向作用，此时经济体呈现出名义汇率适度贬值、适度通货膨胀和实际 汇率适度升值的组合。而在危机时期，实际汇率大幅贬值会拖累经济赶超速度；第四，经济增速较低、名义汇率大幅波动及高通胀的国家容易陷入"中等 收入陷阱"；第五，与日韩相比，中国在跨越"中等收入陷阱"前经济增速就明显回落，面临更大的赶超压力。 二、文献综述 实际汇率是宏观经济中最重要的相对价格。尽管受货币中性假设影响，传统宏观经济模型并未突出实际汇率的作用，但实际汇率与经济增长之间有着纷繁 复杂的关系，且近年来随着"罗德里克新论"的出现，有关实际汇率与经济增长关系的讨论重 ...

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the comparison of the value of the Chinese Yuan (RMB) and the US Dollar (USD), highlighting that the RMB has not consistently appreciated over the decades, with a significant depreciation observed from 1979 to 2025 [2] - The concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) is discussed as a valuable tool for evaluating a country's economic balance, but it is argued that using PPP to define the actual exchange rate of RMB against USD is flawed, as it does not account for international pricing mechanisms [4] - The article emphasizes that while PPP can serve as a reference tool, it cannot fully capture the dynamic nature of market conditions, supply and demand, and the real value of currencies [6] Group 2 - The long-standing trade deficit between China and the US is attributed to China's low labor costs and high purchasing power, which does not necessarily indicate that the RMB is more valuable [8] - The article points out that the low living costs in China, combined with a hardworking population, have led to overcapacity and squeezed corporate profits, raising questions about the true value of labor in the market [8] - The potential for a financial crisis is mentioned if foreign exchange controls are lifted, suggesting that the true value of the RMB would be tested in a freely convertible currency environment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naoki Tamura, stated that Japan's real exchange rate is very low, indicating potential implications for the country's economic competitiveness and monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights concerns regarding Japan's real exchange rate, which is perceived as undervalued [1] - This low real exchange rate may affect Japan's export competitiveness and overall economic growth [1] - The commentary suggests that adjustments in monetary policy may be necessary to address the implications of the low real exchange rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential restructuring of the global trading system, focusing on the implications of the U.S. dollar's strength and the possibility of a new international monetary framework, particularly in light of recent comments from President Trump regarding currency devaluation by trade partners [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Dollar and Currency Valuation - The U.S. dollar is considered overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency, which imposes costs on U.S. manufacturers and exporters [2][5]. - President Trump has criticized the devaluation of currencies like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, asserting that such actions create an unfair disadvantage for the U.S. [2][5]. - The actual exchange rate of the dollar has strengthened, with the International Bank for Settlements indicating that the dollar's real exchange rate is at a high level compared to the pre-Plaza Accord period [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the Plaza Accord of 1985, which aimed to induce a depreciation of the dollar through coordinated intervention by major economies [5][6]. - The scale of the foreign exchange market has significantly increased since the Plaza Accord, complicating any potential coordinated intervention today [6][7]. - The historical context highlights that the intervention during the Plaza Accord involved approximately $10 billion, while recent interventions, such as Japan's, have reached much higher amounts, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Implications - Achieving a new agreement similar to the Plaza Accord would require participation from emerging economies, which presents significant challenges compared to the past [6][7]. - There is speculation that Trump may push for a weaker dollar through tariffs, which could lead to increased pressure on countries like Japan to adjust their monetary policies [7]. - The potential for a new monetary agreement, referred to as the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," remains uncertain, but if realized, it could have profound implications for the foreign exchange market and the global economy [1][7].