浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘 埃落定，9 月剑指重启降息？ 特朗普关税政策更新——"新关税框架"已浮现，仍需关注行业关税和 中美谈判。虽然印度、瑞士、加拿大和墨西哥尚未与美国达成协议，但 是随着美国接连和日本和欧盟两大贸易伙伴达成协议，以及新关税税率 的公布，关税政策的不确定性显著下降。然而，我们并不认为关税风险 已经完全化解。接下来行业关税和中美贸易谈判将会是美国关税政策不 确定性的重点所在：首先，自特朗普今年上任以来，美国商务部启动的 "232 调查"数量显著增加。短期来说，芯片和药品的调查结果和潜在 关税加征的影响不容小觑。中期来看，我们不能排除有更多行业被卷入 "232 调查"的可能性，这将继续牵动市场对关税问题的担忧，尽管整 体风险或已显著小于此前对"对等关税"全部实施的担忧。其次，中美 关税谈判或仍存在变数。中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的公布过程 较为曲折。 美国经济数据回顾——7 月通胀略微回升但符合预期；实体经济数据喜 忧参半。美国核心 CPI 通胀率 7 月微升。关税对商品价格的影响正在逐 渐显露，不过相对 6 月数据并未显著增强。7 月数据最为惹眼的 ...

Core Insights - The insurance industry in China is projected to see a significant increase in premium income and total assets by 2025, with a growth of over 25% in premium income and 68% in total assets compared to 2020 [1] Group 1: Strengthening Social Welfare - The insurance sector has expanded its capacity to improve and guarantee livelihoods, with personal insurance payouts reaching 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 88.08% from 2020, and property insurance payouts at 1.1 trillion yuan, up 57.14% [2] - The insurance industry is actively developing commercial insurance products, enhancing the supply of insurance for new industries and urban residents, and improving the inclusive insurance system to better meet public needs [2] - Catastrophe insurance has achieved full coverage for common natural disasters in China, with over 20 provinces piloting comprehensive catastrophe insurance [2] Group 2: Enhancing Support for the Real Economy - The insurance industry provides risk protection across various sectors, including agriculture, with agricultural insurance premiums increasing from 97.6 billion yuan in 2021 to 148.37 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The introduction of innovative insurance products, such as weather index insurance for oil tea plantations, demonstrates the industry's commitment to supporting agricultural resilience [3] - Insurance funds are increasingly being utilized for long-term investments in major projects, with the balance of insurance company funds rising from 21.68 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 to 34.93 trillion yuan by the first quarter of this year [4] Group 3: Ongoing Reforms in Key Areas - The insurance industry is undergoing significant reforms, including the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for life insurance product pricing linked to market rates, aimed at enhancing pricing accuracy [7] - The implementation of the "Car Insurance Good to Insure" platform has facilitated the coverage of over 880,000 new energy vehicles, with total insured amounts reaching 888.95 billion yuan [6] - Reforms in the auto insurance sector have led to a 21.2% decrease in average premiums, while the compulsory insurance coverage has increased significantly [6]

展望未来，邮储银行抚州市分行将继续坚守服务实体经济的根本，以客户为中心，持续深化金融创新， 提升服务水平，在支持产业发展、助力消费升级的道路上不断迈进，为抚州地区经济社会的高质量发展 贡献更多金融智慧和力量。（供稿：邮储银行抚州市分行） 以江西某新能源科技有限公司为例，作为抚州市重点培育的绿色发展企业，该公司专注于锂电池材料的 研发与生产。伴随市场需求的持续攀升，企业急需资金扩大生产规模、升级研发设备，却因缺乏抵押物 陷入融资困境。邮储银行抚州市分行获悉后，第一时间组建专项服务团队深入企业实地调研，结合 其"科技+绿色"的双重属性，创新推出"科技信用贷+绿色信贷"组合融资方案，仅用一周便完成500万元 信用贷款发放，高效解决了企业的燃眉之急。据悉，截至当前，该行公司贷款余额已成功突破20亿元， 达到20.80亿元，为抚州产业的高质量发展提供了坚实的金融保障。 在助力居民消费升级方面，邮储银行抚州市分行充分发挥金融纽带作用，聚焦居民在住房、汽车、教 育、医疗等重点领域的消费需求，持续拓展消费场景，优化金融服务流程。通过推出利率优惠、审批提 速、线上办理等便民措施，为居民提供更便捷、优惠、贴心的金融服务，有效激发 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the capital interest rates maintained a "low-level and low-volatility" state, with a slight increase during the tax period. The central bank's flexible injections and large banks' high net lending maintained a comfortable liquidity environment. The market's expectation of further monetary easing converged, but the capital market remained relatively stable, with fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open market operations were mainly net withdrawals, but turned to net injections during the tax period, and a 6M repurchase agreement was implemented on the tax day. The capital interest rates were close to the bottom, rising slightly on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending reached a new high, and the yield spread of certificates of deposit (CDs) in the primary and secondary markets fluctuated narrowly, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [1]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report confirmed sufficient liquidity, suggesting that interest rates may remain low and fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited room for further decline. The central bank may be cautious in using aggregate tools, focusing more on implementing existing policies and improving the transmission mechanism, and paying attention to non-interest financing costs. The fundamental purpose of the financial system to serve the real economy may be more prominent, and the market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [1]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to remain stable, with limited upward pressure on interest rates and a need for more policy signals to break through the lower limit. The maturity scale of reverse repurchases and CDs will decrease, and the influencing factors will be staggered, making the market fluctuations controllable. The coordinated monetary and fiscal policies will ensure sufficient liquidity supply. Interest rates may continue to show "low - volatility and rigidity", and it is unlikely to break through the previous low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Capital Market Steady State - This week, the capital market remained comfortable, with minor fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open - market operations were mainly net withdrawals from Monday to Thursday, but turned to net injections on August 15, the tax deadline, along with a 5000 - billion - yuan 6M repurchase agreement. Capital interest rates were "low - level and low - volatility", rising on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending remained high, and CD prices were stable, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [11]. - The continuous loosening of capital in August was due to the phased injection of repurchase agreements and the fact that August is not a major tax - paying month, with lower tax revenues and reduced mid - month payment pressure [18][20]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report was more positive about the domestic economy, emphasizing strategic stability. The central bank may continue to "targeted and precise" regulation, with short - term liquidity remaining stable. The central bank is concerned about financial risk prevention, may be cautious in using aggregate tools, and will focus on supporting the real economy through structural policies. The market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [21][22]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to be stable. The pressure will ease as the maturity scale of reverse repurchases, government bonds, and CDs decreases. The influencing factors will be staggered, and with the coordinated policies, there is no need to worry about liquidity. Interest rates are likely to remain "low - level and low - volatility", and it is difficult to break through the previous low without additional liquidity or policy support [25]. 3.2. Open Market Operations - From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases, 1126.7 billion yuan in maturities, and 500 billion yuan in 6M repurchase agreements. From August 18 - 22, the open - market maturity will be 931.8 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [31]. - The reverse repurchase balance continued to decline. As of August 15, it was 711.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 414.9 billion yuan from August 8. In August, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature for 300 billion yuan, and repurchase agreements will mature for 900 billion yuan (400 billion yuan for 3M and 500 billion yuan for 6M). The net injection of repurchase agreements was 300 billion yuan [33][35]. 3.3. Government Bonds - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, including 310.3 billion yuan in treasury bond issuance, 91.4 billion yuan in local bond issuance, 95.6 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities, and 73.2 billion yuan in local bond maturities. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 731.2 billion yuan, including 362 billion yuan in treasury bonds and 369.2 billion yuan in local bonds, with 40.1 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities and 167.9 billion yuan in local bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds will be 84.9 billion yuan, and that of local bonds will be 179.2 billion yuan [38]. - This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 214.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 4555.5 billion yuan this year, reaching 74% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 248.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3454.4 billion yuan, reaching 66% of the annual plan [39]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 1.32%, a decrease of about 0.08 percentage points from July and 0.09 percentage points from the same period last year. The predicted excess reserve at the end of July was 4413.6 billion yuan. From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was - 120 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was 2.62 billion yuan, and the tax payment was 998.5 billion yuan [44][45]. 3.5. Money Market - Interest rates increased. As of August 15, compared with August 8, DR001 increased by 9.03 basis points to 1.4%, DR007 increased by 5.47 basis points to 1.48%, R001 increased by 9.78 basis points to 1.44%, and R007 increased by 3.2 basis points to 1.49%. Overnight interest rates hovered around 1.4%. The spreads between various interest rates and the OMO rate also changed [47]. - The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 1.67 basis points and 0.21 basis points to 1.33% and 1.44% respectively. The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 27.57 basis points and 7.13 basis points to 1.49% and 1.53% respectively. The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by - 0.58 basis points and 0.71 basis points to 1.52% and 1.57% respectively. The weekly average of six - month national and city commercial bill transfer rates changed by - 0.03 percentage points to 0.65% and 0.76% respectively [52][55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8151.4 billion yuan, an increase of 42.3 billion yuan from August 4 - 8. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2084.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.8 billion yuan from August 4 - 8 [57]. - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 3.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of 153.3 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the average net lending of large state - owned banks was 4.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 105 billion yuan from last week, with an overnight lending ratio of 97%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points from last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 258.3 billion yuan from last week [60]. 3.6. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - This week (August 11 - 15), the total issuance of CDs was 774.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 130.3 billion yuan, a decrease compared with last week. By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest issuance scale, and city commercial banks had the highest net financing. By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 9 - month CDs had the highest net financing [69]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 8.09 months, longer than last week's 6.4 months. Among different types of banks, state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had weighted average issuance terms of 9.8, 8.1, 6.7, and 7.4 months respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.31, 0.67, 0.52, and 0.91 months from last week [73]. - In terms of issuance success rates, joint - stock banks had the highest success rate. By maturity, 1 - month CDs had the highest success rate, and by credit rating, AA - rated CDs had the highest success rate [75]. - Next week (August 18 - 24), the maturity scale of CDs will be 797.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.7 billion yuan from this week. The maturity is mainly concentrated in state - owned banks and city commercial banks, and the terms are mainly 1 - year and 3 - month [78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the equity market remained high this week, putting more pressure on the capital side of the REITs market. The liquidity continued to weaken, and the index回调幅度较大. The consumer sector showed relatively strong resistance [2]. - Three REITs projects submitted responses to the exchange inquiries this week. Compared with the prospectuses, all three projects lowered the valuations of their underlying assets by 3% to 15%, and made more cautious forecasts and evaluations regarding rent, occupancy rates, and collection rates [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First - level Market - As of August 15, 2025, 14 REITs had been successfully issued this year (6 in Q1, 4 in Q2, and 4 in July), with a total issuance scale of 27.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [3]. - This week, 3 new - issue public REITs made progress. The China International Capital Corporation Vipshop Outlet REIT completed the book - building process, with a final issuance price of 3.48 yuan per share, and is expected to raise 3.48 billion yuan based on an issuance volume of 1 billion shares. The Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT and the CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT entered the feedback stage. One REIT expansion project, the Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT, also entered the feedback stage [3]. - Currently, in the approval process: (1) For new - issue REITs, 9 have been submitted, 5 have responded to inquiries, and 1 has been registered and is awaiting listing. (2) For expansion REITs, 9 have been submitted, 3 have responded to inquiries, and 3 have passed the review [3]. 3.2 Second - level Market 3.2.1 Market Review - As of August 15, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index (932047.CSI) closed at 1080.91 points, down 1.49% for the week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.87 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 0.39 percentage points. The CSI REITs Total Return Index has risen 11.68% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend by 4.88 and 12.18 percentage points respectively [3]. - By project attribute, equity - type REITs fell 1.24% this week, and concession - type REITs fell 1.53%. By asset type, the data center (+4.72%), consumer (-0.75%), warehousing and logistics (-1.27%), and transportation (-1.34%) sectors performed relatively well. Among individual bonds, 6 rose and 67 fell this week. The Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT (+5.59%), Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (+4.26%), and Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT (+0.62%) led the gainers, while the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT (-8.57%), China Merchants Expressway REIT (-4.59%), and China International Capital Corporation Xiamen Anju REIT (-4.56%) were the biggest losers [3]. 3.2.2 Liquidity - The average daily turnover rates of equity - type and concession - type REITs this week were 0.67% and 0.52% respectively, down 15.36 and 1.65 basis points from last week. The trading volumes during the week were 545 million and 144 million shares respectively, down 16.98% and 3.07% week - on - week. The data center sector had the highest activity level [3]. 3.2.3 Valuation - Based on the ChinaBond valuation yields, the yields of equity - type and concession - type REITs were 3.74% and 4.72% respectively. The transportation (5.98%), warehousing and logistics (5.21%), and park (4.28%) sectors ranked among the top [3]. 3.3 This Week's News and Important Announcements - On August 14, 2025, the central bank issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - style Industrialization", stating that it would strengthen digital empowerment of finance, promote the in - depth integration of the digital economy and the real economy, and actively use REITs and other means to broaden the sources of funds for digital infrastructure construction [35]. - There were multiple important announcements this week, including share unlocking announcements for several REITs such as the Hua'an Bailian Consumer REIT and dividend announcements for the China Aviation Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT, Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, etc. [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economic tone is more positive, reducing the short - term urgency for policy intensification. The overseas environment shows positive changes but still requires caution, and domestic policies should enhance flexibility and predictability [1][6]. - Monetary policy maintains its stance, and liquidity will remain abundant. Central bank regulation will continue to be targeted, and the use of aggregate tools may be more cautious [3][15]. - The financial system's focus on serving the real economy is more prominent. Short - term capital fluctuations may have less signal significance, and the central bank is more focused on achieving multiple monetary policy goals [4][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Economy Steady with Progress, Overseas Environment with Prudent Optimism - **Domestic Economy**: The report's tone on the domestic economy is more positive. In H1 2025, the economy grew steadily with a GDP growth of 5.3%. The stock and bond markets' pricing of July economic data was limited. The positive tone may reduce the short - term need for policy intensification, and incremental policies need a longer observation period [6][13]. - **Overseas Environment**: The description of the overseas economic recovery process and tariff policies in the report has become less severe. The RMB exchange rate has certain resistance, and the impact of tariff games is gradually weakening. However, uncertainties such as Sino - US tariff games and the Fed's interest - rate cut path still exist, so vigilance cannot be relaxed [2][7]. 3.2 Policy Maintains Stance, Liquidity Abundance Re - confirmed - The moderately loose monetary policy emphasizes "implementation and refinement", indicating good implementation in H1 and more focus on policy effectiveness in H2. The central bank's regulation will continue to be targeted, and liquidity will remain abundant with interest rates likely to fluctuate within a narrow range. - The central bank pays attention to preventing financial risks, aiming to balance reducing bank liability costs and supporting the real economy. Aggregate tools may be used more cautiously, with more focus on improving frameworks and transmission mechanisms and reducing non - interest financing costs [3][15]. 3.3 Focus on Multiple Goals, Signal Significance of Short - term Capital Fluctuations May Weaken - The Q2 monetary policy report has four columns highlighting how finance supports the real economy, and structural monetary policy tools will continue to be the main means. - The central bank is more focused on achieving multiple monetary policy goals. Short - term capital fluctuations may be due to temporary supply - demand frictions, and the market should not over - interpret them [4][18].

一是保持货币信贷合理增长。5月降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元， 并综合运用公开市场操作、中期借贷便利、再贷款再贴现等工具，保持流动性充裕。引导金融机构充分 满足实体经济有效信贷需求，提高资金使用效率，提升服务实体经济质效。 来源：中国人民银行 2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，更加积极有为的宏观政策加紧实施，经济运行 稳中有进，主要经济指标表现良好，展现出强大活力和韧性。上半年国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长 5.3%，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新进展。中国人民银行坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会 主义思想为指导，认真落实党中央、国务院决策部署，货币政策适度宽松，强化逆周期调节，综合运用 多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济持续回升向好创造了适宜的货币金融环境。 （文章来源：中国基金报） 落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度 和节奏，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹 配，持续营造适宜的金融环境。把促进物价合理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in registered capital by brokerage firms' alternative investment subsidiaries, highlighting their role in supporting the real economy and promoting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [1][4]. Group 1: Capital Adjustment - Several brokerage firms have flexibly adjusted the registered capital of their alternative investment subsidiaries this year to meet development needs and optimize resource allocation [2][3]. - Zhongyuan Securities announced a reduction in the registered capital of its subsidiary Zhongzhou Blue Ocean from 2.426 billion to 2.226 billion yuan, with previous adjustments occurring in January and April [2]. - Northeast Securities and Guodu Securities also reported reductions in their alternative subsidiaries' registered capital, indicating a trend among brokerages to enhance capital efficiency [2][3]. Group 2: Service to the Real Economy - Brokerage firms' alternative subsidiaries are actively engaging in alternative investment activities, including direct equity investments and sponsorship projects, thereby playing a significant role in driving technological innovation and supporting national strategies [4]. - These subsidiaries are seen as vital links between capital markets and the real economy, providing targeted financing support to early-stage and growth-stage technology enterprises [4]. - The "sponsorship + follow-up investment" mechanism allows brokerages to offer comprehensive financial services to technology companies, enhancing the synergy between investment banking and investment activities [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Future Plans - Brokerage firms are adopting a "invest early, invest small, invest in hard technology" approach to promote technological innovation and industrial upgrades [5]. - Companies like Industrial Securities and Nanjing Securities are focusing their investments on high-growth sectors such as semiconductors, new energy, and high-end manufacturing, with Nanjing Securities planning to invest 700 million yuan over the next three years [5]. - Several brokerages, including Zhongtai Securities and Nanjing Securities, are planning to increase their investments in alternative subsidiaries, with Zhongtai intending to raise up to 1 billion yuan for alternative investment activities [5].

中国人民银行8月13日发布了7月金融统计数据。一系列金融政策落地见效，推动信贷总量平稳增长、结 构持续优化。信贷资金主要流向了哪些领域？如何理解主要数据变化？ 支持实体经济有力有效 中国人民银行当日发布的金融统计数据显示，7月末，我国人民币贷款余额268.51万亿元，同比增长 6.9%；社会融资规模存量为431.26万亿元，同比增长9%；广义货币（M2）余额329.94万亿元，同比增 长8.8%。 7月历来是贷款投放的"小月"，6月银行季末信贷冲量明显，把6月和7月贷款数据合并来看，信贷增长保 持平稳。 今年以来，债券融资增长较多，推动社融规模持续较快增长。前7个月社会融资规模增量比上年同期多 5.12万亿元，其中政府债券数据表现突出，政府债券净融资同比多4.88万亿元。 "通过债券置换，此前地方政府大量以高息短贷形式存在的隐性债务转化为低息长债，这对贷款数据产 生一定影响。"西南财经大学中国金融研究院副院长董青马表示，地方债务置换有助于风险出清和金融 稳定，腾挪更多地方财力惠民生、促发展，也有利于释放更多信贷资源流向实体经济。 具体来看，金融"活水"流向哪些领域？一组数据或能给出答案。 7月末，普惠小微贷款 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several listed companies are increasingly engaging in financial investments using their own funds, aiming to enhance capital efficiency and maximize returns for the company and its shareholders [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Companies are utilizing idle funds for various investments, including stock subscriptions, equity investments, and bond investments, as permitted by regulations [1]. - Some companies have successfully improved capital efficiency and generated additional income through prudent investments in relatively safe financial products [2]. - Conversely, there are companies that have suffered significant losses by prioritizing speculative trading over their core business, leading to a loss of competitive advantage [2]. Group 2: Considerations for Investment - Companies should assess whether their investment scale is manageable to avoid excessive risk, particularly if leveraging is involved [3]. - The quality of investment products should be prioritized, ensuring that the underlying assets are robust and align with the company's strategic goals [3]. - A transparent decision-making process, including timely information disclosure and a professional investment team, is essential to mitigate market concerns and prevent irrational investments [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Recommendations - Regulatory bodies should tighten controls on non-core investments by setting strict limits to prevent speculative financial activities from undermining core business operations [3]. - Increased scrutiny and accountability should be applied to companies that frequently engage in high-risk investments or exhibit significant losses [3]. - The fundamental strength of listed companies lies in their core business operations rather than speculative trading in the securities market [3].