宏 观 研 究 月度前瞻 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 温差一：2025 年底反映生产的开工指标转弱，但制造业 PMI 超季节性回升。2025 年底，高炉开 工、PTA 开工、货运量等指标有所回落；制造业 PMI 在 12 月却回升 0.9 个百分点至 50.1%。从行 业来看，黑色压延、化学原料等传统行业 12 月 PMI 均有回落，与高炉、PTA 开工表现一致；但电 气机械、医药等新兴行业 PMI 有所回升，大类行业中高技术制造业、装备制造业 PMI 均有改善。 2026 年 01 月 12 日 再议宏微观"温差"？ ——"月度前瞻"系列专题之六 ⚫ 一问：2025 年底经济的"温差"？PMI 等宏观数据走强，但生产、消费等中观指标却走弱。 温差二：消费高频在 2025 年底进一步走低，但消费品行业 PMI 却回升至景气区间。2025 年四季 度以来，汽车、家电零售量呈现回落态势，12 月以来进一步下行。但整体消费品行业 PMI 在 12 月 有所回升、较前月上行 1 个百分点至 50.4%；表现较强的行业如纺织服装服饰业、PMI 回升 4.5 个 百分点至 57.5%。 温差三：映射投 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the economy, suggesting a stable recovery driven by various policies, particularly the "old-for-new" policy and infrastructure investments [2][6]. Core Insights - The economic data for January-February 2025 shows a steady performance, indicating a recovery supported by policies targeting new industries and infrastructure [2]. - Consumer spending is expected to improve, with significant government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, including a special bond issuance of 300 billion yuan [6]. - Manufacturing investment is on the rise, particularly in high-tech sectors, driven by equipment upgrades and government support [17][18]. - Infrastructure investment is also increasing, with broad-based support from government policies and a focus on major projects [19][20]. - The real estate sector is facing challenges, with sales declining, but government measures are anticipated to stabilize the market [25]. Summary by Sections Consumption - Retail sales in January-February 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, slightly below expectations but showing improvement from December 2024 [3][5]. - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted sales in furniture and home appliances, with growth rates of 11.7% and 10.9% respectively [4]. Manufacturing - Fixed asset investment increased by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and previous months' performance [11]. - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.0%, with significant contributions from transportation and general equipment sectors [17]. Infrastructure - Broad infrastructure investment grew by 9.9% year-on-year, indicating strong government support and project initiation [19]. - The construction PMI new orders index has shown an upward trend, suggesting increased activity in the sector [20][23]. Real Estate - Real estate sales saw a decline, with sales area and value dropping by 5.1% and 2.6% respectively [25]. - However, the decline in development investment has slowed, with a year-on-year drop of 9.8%, indicating some stabilization efforts [25].