赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者赵伟 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大 经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大 经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 以下观点整理自赵伟在 CMF 宏观经济月度数据分析会（ 2025 年 12 月）（总第 81 期） 上的发言 本文字数：4186字 阅读时间：13分钟 我将从三个维度进行探讨：第一，2025年经济运行中值得提示的转折性变化； 第二，近期部分指标下滑的原因；第三，基于"宏微观温差"视角的政策建议。 一、2025年经济运行的四大转折性变化 在我看来，2025年经济运行包含三到四个关键的转折性变化，主要体现在以下 方面： 第一，疫后"疤痕效应"的影响明显弱化。 可以将出行人流数据作为衡量经济活 动"量"维度的刻画，可以发现今年的表现明显好过过去几年同期；将核心商品 CPI和PPI视为"价"的维度，可以看到今年以来PPI和CPI走势开始出现背离，尽 管核心PPI仍处于底部徘徊状态， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that by 2025, the domestic economic environment will experience significant changes, including the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts, and the gradual formation of a new supply-side reform framework [1][8][30] - The "scar effect" is showing signs of retreat, with improvements in consumer behavior and a rapid decline in accounts receivable growth for enterprises, indicating a recovery in economic confidence [15][20] - The trade conflict's impact on the domestic economy is diminishing, with a shift in export structure towards high value-added products and a reduction in the proportion of exports to the US [20][21] Group 2 - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures and debt clearance policies are crucial for addressing the stagnation in economic circulation, with a focus on enhancing corporate profitability and revitalizing operations [2][50] - The economic forecast indicates a "non-typical recovery" driven by domestic demand policies, with expectations of improved corporate profitability and investment recovery by 2026 [4][6] - The emphasis on reform in 2026 is seen as a critical period for accelerating economic growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the efficiency of the economic system [60][79] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of a unified national market and systemic reforms to enhance economic resilience and competitiveness, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [63][84] - The focus on service industry development and the acceleration of institutional opening-up are expected to create significant investment opportunities in the coming years [86][87] - The modernization of the industrial system is prioritized, with a clear strategy for upgrading traditional industries and fostering new and future industries [67][73]