1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to the game between high inventory accumulation and Indonesian risks. Stainless steel has a weak reality that drags down steel prices and is in a short - term low - level oscillation. Industrial silicon has a strong upward drive for the disk due to warehouse receipt depletion. Polysilicon is in a policy vacuum period and the disk returns to fundamentals. Lithium carbonate may face downward risks from mine resumption. Palm oil may see the end of short - term negative news with the MPOB report next week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in November. Soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation without an independent upward drive. Soybean meal is oscillating, waiting for the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report. Soybean No.1 is oscillating due to repeated trade sentiment. Corn requires attention to the spot market. Sugar requires attention to policy changes. Cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the near term. Live pigs are accumulating contradictions and waiting for spot confirmation. Peanuts are facing supply pressure [2][4][5][28][69][80]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and supply - demand imbalance on the one hand, and uncertainties in Indonesian policies on the other hand, result in a low - level oscillation. The replacement of nickel plates with ferronickel in the nickel alloy end and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity. However, the uncertainty of Indonesian supply governance policies makes short - sellers lack confidence [4]. - Stainless steel: The lack of upward drive in the real fundamentals, with weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle, high upstream inventory, and a large number of expiring warehouse receipts, leads to a low - level oscillation. Although the supply is elastic, the cost decline also limits the downward space [5]. - **Inventory Tracking** - Refined nickel: On November 7, the 27 - warehouse social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1934 tons to 50,680 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1002 tons to 253,104 tons [6]. - Stainless steel: In October, SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. On November 6, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly decreased to 946,000 tons, and the total social inventory of steel - linked stainless steel increased by 0.29% week - on - week [8]. - **Market News** - There are multiple events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of a nickel mine by the forestry working group, sanctions on mining companies, and regulations on the approval of RKAB. In addition, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Trump has proposed additional tariffs on China [9][10][11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The disk price is strongly oscillated, and the spot price has increased. It closed at 9220 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - Polysilicon: The disk center has declined, and the spot price is stable, closing at 53,215 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a slight reduction in weekly industry inventory. The southwest region has reduced production, and the overall output in November - December is expected to decrease. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone, but the demand may decline in the future [29][30]. - Polysilicon: The short - term weekly output has decreased, and the upstream inventory is flat. The demand side has a decrease in silicon wafer production scheduling [30][31]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon: The depletion of warehouse receipts provides upward drive for the disk. It is recommended to take a long - position approach when the price drops [33]. - Polysilicon: In the policy vacuum period, the disk trades based on supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices [33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract oscillates widely in the range of 77,000 - 83,000 tons. The 2511 contract closes at 80,460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1160 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract closes at 82,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1520 yuan/ton [69]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The weekly output increases to 21,534 tons, and the inventory decreases by 3405 tons to 124,000 tons. The cost of lithium carbonate may increase due to the supplementary payment of mining rights transfer income [70]. - Demand: In October 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 10GW/29.4GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting bidding, showing a decline compared to September [70]. - **Market Outlook** - There is a risk of price decline after the resumption of mines in Jiangxi. The futures main - contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [71]. 3.4 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The market is worried about high production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract decreased by 1.59% last week, with a possible short - term stabilization [80]. - Soybean oil: In a large - supply environment, it follows the oil and fat sector to oscillate weakly, but its strong export demand makes it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties, and the 01 contract increased by 0.39% last week [80]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: Malaysia may have high production in the fourth quarter, and the inventory is expected to be high. Indonesia has large export pressure in November. Although it may show a short - term end of negative news, the market has not fully priced in the high production in November - December. The inventory at the origin is expected to increase, and the price needs additional demand stimulation to stabilize [81]. - Soybean oil: The production situation in Brazil is good, and the supply is large. The domestic soybean arrival is sufficient, and the export demand may maintain the monthly de - stocking process. It is mainly for long - allocation but has no independent upward drive [84].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Zinc prices are in a repeated game between overseas macro - sentiment, low - inventory support, and weak domestic reality. There is still some risk - aversion sentiment in the market. LME zinc inventory is below 40,000 tons, and the LME0 - 3 Back structure has risen to $200/ton, increasing structural risks. The domestic import - export profit and loss has expanded to 5,100 yuan/ton, and the export window is almost open [7]. - SHFE zinc fluctuated narrowly during the day and weakened in the afternoon. The main contract closed at 22,220 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.29%. The trading volume was 124,307 lots, and the open interest decreased by 6,505 lots to 95,194 lots [7]. - After the holiday, the downstream提货 speed was slower than the arrival speed. The seven - region zinc ingot inventory has continuously increased to 163,100 tons. Some holders plan to export and are not eager to sell. The spot premium remained stable. The Shanghai market had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the November contract, the Tianjin market had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market had a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the November contract [7]. - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, with greater volatility driven by overseas factors. The upside is limited by the domestic fundamentals. Consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity if there is a large - scale delivery of overseas inventory and the actual realization of domestic export volume [7]. Group 3: Industry News - On October 14, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 22,310 - 22,405 yuan/ton, Shuangyan at 22,400 - 22,495 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc at 22,240 - 22,335 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 40 - 60 yuan/ton over the SMM average price [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 22,280 - 22,355 yuan/ton, with a discount of 35 yuan/ton to the November contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,250 - 22,410 yuan/ton, and Zijin at 22,320 - 22,470 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc ordinary had a discount of 50 to a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the November contract, and Zijin had a premium of 20 - 80 yuan/ton to the November contract. The Tianjin market had a premium of about 10 yuan/ton over the Shanghai market [8][9]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,250 - 22,380 yuan/ton, with a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the November contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind and SMM, as well as the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][12]