新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 库存仍有压力，盘面维持震荡运行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-09-25，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2511开于9035元/吨，最后收于9055元/吨，较前一日结算变化（65） 元/吨，变化（0.72）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓259965手，2025-09-25仓单总数为50066手，较前一日变化 141手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8900-9100（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8900-9100（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM统计9月25日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比持平。其中社会普通仓库12万吨，较上周环 比持平，社会交割仓库42.3万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比持平。近期新疆地区部分工业硅货物 陆续向天津等地区转移，故不同地区之间库存变化大。国庆节前下游备货需求增加，仓库货物进出量较好。（不含 内蒙、 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 23, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.29% to 13119.82, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.21% to 3114.55. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2494.4 billion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4519.78, down 2.83 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Price: The weighted index of coke closed at 1734.4, down 10.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1229.0 yuan, down 10.7 [3][4]. - Factors: For coke, the third - round price cut is still expected, while some coking plants start the first - round price increase. The overall inventory is increasing, and traders' purchasing willingness has improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the pre - National Day replenishment sentiment is strong, and the total inventory has increased [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Price: Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the possible reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated lower on Tuesday and rebounded at night [5]. - Supply: Based on the current crop growth, India's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season may reach about 487 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous season, and the total sugar production is expected to increase 18% to 34.9 million tons [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Price: Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, with natural rubber being weak and 20 - number rubber being slightly stronger. It rose slightly at night due to the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - Production: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the production increased 1.6% to 7.95467 billion pieces [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - Price: The M2601 main contract of soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.49% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient, the oil mills maintain a high operating rate, and the inventory is rising. The price is expected to be weak under the supply pressure [8]. 2.5 Live Pigs - Price: The LH2511 main contract of live pigs closed at 12665 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.02% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of standard pigs increased significantly in September, and the market supply pressure is large. Although the pre - festival stocking enthusiasm has increased, the consumption has not reached the expected level, and the price may remain weak [8]. 2.6 Palm Oil - Price: The P2601 main contract of palm oil closed at 9054, a decline of 3.27%. The highest price was 9294, and the lowest was 8946 [9]. - Production: An Indonesian state - owned palm oil producer aims for a crude palm oil production of 415,000 tons in 2025 and 1.07 million tons in 2026 [9]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Price: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price is under pressure. The inventory is rising, and the spot basis premium has narrowed to 60 points [9]. - Factors: The macro - level policies are not releasing more positive signals, and the Fed's internal differences increase market uncertainty. The supply is tightened due to a mine shutdown, but the demand is still cautious [9]. 2.8 Cotton - Price: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13580 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday, and the inventory decreased by 181 lots [10]. - Export: From January to August 2025, China's cotton product export volume was 4.9341 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.49%, but the export value decreased 4.95%, and the unit price dropped 13.11% [10]. 2.9 Logs - Price: The 2511 contract opened at 808, closed at 805, with a daily reduction of 362 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [10]. - Market: The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [10]. 2.10 Iron Ore - Price: The 2601 main contract of iron ore fell 1.23% to 802.5 yuan [11]. - Supply - demand: The shipment decreased, the arrival increased, and the steel mills have pre - festival replenishment demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. 2.11 Asphalt - Price: The 2511 main contract of asphalt fell 1.2% to 3373 yuan [12]. - Supply - demand: The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly last week, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment increased. The price will fluctuate in the short term [12]. 2.12 Alumina - Price: The ao2601 contract closed at 2877 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the expected supply expansion suppresses the price. The price may fluctuate around the cost line [12]. 2.13 Shanghai Aluminum - Price: The al2511 contract closed at 20685 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The downstream peak - season characteristics are not obvious, but the consumption willingness is expected to improve. The price is looking for a bottom in the range [12]. 2.14 Steel - Price: The rb2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3340 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply - demand: The supply is weak and the demand is increasing, but the downstream has not improved. The price will fluctuate under the game of multiple factors [13].

Core Insights - The automotive finance industry in China is undergoing significant changes, with total assets of 24 automotive finance companies declining to 855.134 billion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.37%, marking the largest drop in history [1][3][8] Group 1: Industry Overview - The decline in asset scale is attributed to multiple pressures, including the accelerated electrification of the automotive industry, with new energy vehicle sales expected to grow by approximately 40.8% in 2024, while traditional energy vehicle sales are projected to shrink by about 14.1% [1][3] - The competition from commercial banks in the automotive finance sector is intensifying, as banks shift their focus from personal consumption loans to automotive loans due to pressures in the real estate market [4][5] Group 2: Financial Performance - The overall non-performing loan (NPL) rate for the automotive finance industry is 0.65% at the end of 2024, a slight increase from 0.58% in 2023, but still significantly lower than the 1.50% average for commercial banks [2][8] - The industry maintains a high provision coverage ratio of approximately 450%, well above the 211.2% level of commercial banks, providing a robust buffer against future risks [2][9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The financial penetration rate of automotive finance companies has decreased from 29% in 2023 to 23% in 2024, with new energy vehicle financial penetration dropping sharply to 14% [5][6] - Despite a 17.31% year-on-year decline in the total number of retail financing vehicles financed by automotive finance companies, the loan balance for new energy vehicles has increased by 23.44% to 204.096 billion yuan [4][6] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory actions have aimed to address issues related to high-interest and high-reward loan models in the automotive finance sector, which may lead to a more favorable competitive environment for automotive finance companies [7] - A new government subsidy policy for personal consumption loans may pose challenges for automotive finance companies, as it does not include them, potentially diverting some customers to commercial banks [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Pig Industry - The current pig spot price is weak, with smooth downstream procurement and normal slaughterhouse deliveries. Local epidemics continue to suppress the market. The market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand. In August, the slaughter volume of large pig farms is expected to recover, and there is also a need to sell the large pigs previously held back by small farmers. Therefore, the short - term pig price is still not optimistic. The spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - month 09 contract faces strong upward pressure. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market offers good hedging profits, the impact of hedging funds also needs to be considered [2]. 2.2 Meal Industry - Trump's statement that he hopes China will significantly increase its imports of US soybeans has improved the export outlook for US soybeans, leading to a sharp increase in US soybean prices. The recent continuous increase in Brazilian soybean premiums has supported domestic import costs, but the improved outlook for US soybean imports may suppress price increases. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously rising, and short - term supply remains at a high level, keeping the spot price under pressure. In terms of operations, the strengthening support from US soybeans limits the downward space for domestic soybean meal on a single - side basis. However, if domestic supply increases, it may affect the trend of the 2601 contract on the futures market. Considering the relatively strong performance of oils, investors holding long positions should be cautious [7]. 2.3 Oil Industry No clear overall core view was found in the oil industry report, but price changes and related data for various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are presented. 2.4 Corn Industry - The current channel inventory of corn is relatively tight, and some traders are willing to support prices. The number of trucks arriving at the market remains low, but the spot price is running weakly due to weak market sentiment and the upcoming new grain harvest in some areas. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises and feed companies mainly purchase based on rigid demand, with inventory continuously decreasing and no obvious boost in consumption, resulting in general purchasing enthusiasm. In the substitution market, wheat prices are strongly supported by the government's minimum purchase price policy. The price difference between corn and wheat is within the substitution range, squeezing the demand for corn. In summary, the tight supply of remaining grain supports the price, but the weak market sentiment persists, and the futures price remains in a low - level oscillation. In the long term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and the output may increase steadily, resulting in supply pressure and a potential decline in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [17]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - ISMA predicts that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will reach 34.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The strong production signs have caused the raw sugar price to decline slightly. However, it is worth noting that although Brazil's sugarcane crushing is in full swing and the sugar - making ratio is high, the total sugar production has not increased year - on - year. The expectations of high yields in India and Thailand are high, and attention should be paid to the later weather conditions. It is expected that the raw sugar price will have difficulty falling below the previous low in the short term, but considering the overall production increase pattern, a bearish view should be maintained. The increase in imports and the entry of processed sugar into the market have put pressure on prices. The terminal market demand is average, with most purchases being made as needed, and the willingness to stockpile is low. Therefore, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is expected to remain bearish [22]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - On the supply side, the spot basis is currently firm. There has been a marginal improvement in the downstream industry this week, but the improvement is not significant. There has been a slight increase in sample orders for grey fabrics in some areas, and the sales of cotton yarn have improved slightly after the cotton price stabilized. The inventory of finished products has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized, providing some support for the cotton price. However, the overall confidence in the downstream industry is still insufficient, and expectations are not high. As the new cotton harvest season approaches, the expected increase in the output of new - season cotton will bring some pressure on the long - term supply. In summary, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is listed [23]. 2.7 Egg Industry - Egg prices have reached a phased low, and downstream traders and food factories may replenish their stocks at low prices, increasing the demand for eggs and supporting price increases. However, the high inventory of laying hens ensures sufficient egg supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs may suppress the price increase. Overall, the egg futures market remains bearish, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of low - level capital fluctuations [26]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Futures Market - The basis of the main contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.97%. The price of the main contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 14,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57%. The position of the main contract increased by 59,598 lots to 59,600 lots, an increase of 1.00% [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - Spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend, with price decreases ranging from 50 to 200 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.3 Slaughter Volume - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 866 to 138,986, an increase of 0.63% [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%. The futures price of M2601 increased by 16 yuan/ton to 3,094 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%. The basis of M2601 increased by 4 to - 154, an increase of 2.53%. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu changed from m2509 - 110 to m2509 - 130. The import crushing profit for US Gulf shipments remained unchanged, while that for Brazilian October shipments decreased by 12 to 92, a decrease of 11.5%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,950 [7]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,660 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%. The futures price of RM2601 increased by 37 yuan/ton to 2,506 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 7 to 154, a decrease of 4.35%. The spot basis quote in Guangdong changed from rm09 - 140 to rm09 - 150. The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments increased by 30 to 369, an increase of 8.85%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5,110 to 9,063, an increase of 129.27% [7]. 3.2.3 Soybeans - The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 4,067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02%. The basis of the main soybean contract increased by 42 to - 107, an increase of 28.19%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,660 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 3,726 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%. The basis of the main soybean - 2 contract increased by 23 to - 66, an increase of 25.84%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 450 to 13,123, a decrease of 3.32% [7]. 3.2.4 Spreads - The soybean meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) decreased by 2 to - 49, a decrease of 4.26%. The rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) decreased by 3 to 267, a decrease of 1.11%. The oil - meal ratio in the spot market decreased by 0.02 to 2.93, a decrease of 0.68%. The oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.007 to 2.75, a decrease of 0.26%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market decreased by 10 to 280, a decrease of 3.45%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2509 decreased by 21 to 588, a decrease of 3.45% [7]. 3.3 Oil Industry 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton. The futures price of Y2601 increased by 56 yuan/ton to 8,456 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67%. The basis of Y2601 decreased by 56 to 154, a decrease of 26.67%. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu changed from 09 + 180 to 09 + 190. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,584 to 21,954, an increase of 7.78% [10]. 3.3.2 Palm Oil - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The futures price of P2509 increased by 238 yuan/ton to 9,218 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.65%. The basis of P2509 decreased by 288 to - 238, a decrease of 576.00%. The spot basis quote in Guangdong remained unchanged at 09 + 100. The import cost for Guangzhou Port in September decreased by 60.1 to 9,297.8, a decrease of 0.64%. The import profit for Guangzhou Port in September increased by 298 to - 80, an increase of 78.89%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 850 to 1,420, an increase of 149.12% [11]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 9,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31%. The futures price of 01509 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 9,588 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%. The basis of 01509 decreased by 44 to 52, a decrease of 45.83%. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu changed from 09 + 80 to 09 + 90. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,487 [12]. 3.3.4 Spreads - The soybean oil inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) increased by 4 to 16, an increase of 33.33%. The palm oil inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) remained unchanged at - 20. The rapeseed oil inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) decreased by 18 to - 5, a decrease of 138.46%. The soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market increased by 50 to - 370, an increase of 11.90%. The soybean - palm oil spread of 2509 decreased by 182 to - 762, a decrease of 31.38%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the spot market decreased by 30 to 1,030, a decrease of 2.83%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread of 2509 decreased by 42 to 1,132, a decrease of 3.58% [13]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Corn - The price of corn 2509 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2,262 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%. The semi - cabin price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 7 to 38, a decrease of 15.56%. The 9 - 1 spread of corn increased by 3 to 74, an increase of 4.23%. The bulk grain price in Shekou remained unchanged at 2,390 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit remained unchanged at 19. The CIF price increased by 2 to 1,928, an increase of 0.11%. The import profit decreased by 2 to 462, a decrease of 0.48%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 48 to 198, an increase of 32.00%. The position decreased by 4,383 to 1,706,905, a decrease of 0.26%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 to 143,037, a decrease of 0.69% [17]. 3.4.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2509 remained unchanged at 2,642 yuan/ton. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,710 yuan/ton. The spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged at 68. The 9 - 1 spread of corn starch decreased by 8 to 82, a decrease of 8.89%. The spread between the starch and corn futures decreased by 7 to 380, a decrease of 1.81%. The starch production profit in Shandong increased by 5 to - 103, an increase of 4.63%. The position increased by 3,282 to 299,462, an increase of 1.11%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,450 [17]. 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 remained unchanged at 5,573 yuan/ton. The price of sugar 2509 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 5,678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%. The price of ICE raw sugar's main contract increased by 0.27 cents/pound to 16.54 cents/pound, an increase of 1.66%. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 2 to - 105, an increase of 1.87%. The position of the main contract increased by 6,182 to 307,158, an increase of 2.05%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 305 to 18,240, a decrease of 1.64%. The number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 0 [22]. 3.5.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16%. The spot price in Kunming remained unchanged at 5,825 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning decreased by 68 to 282, a decrease of 19.43%. The basis in Kunming increased by 2 to 147, an increase of 1.38%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 4,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79%. The import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5,584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the Nanning spot price increased by 35 to - 1,562, an increase of 2.19%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and the Nanning spot price increased by 24 to - 376, an increase of 6.00% [22]. 3.5.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,1

Group 1: ETF Performance - In July, the top-performing ETFs included the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF and the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF, both rising over 26% [1] - The top 10 ETFs in July all recorded gains exceeding 23.9%, with year-to-date increases surpassing 86% [1] - Conversely, gold-related ETFs experienced declines, with several falling over 2% in July [1] Group 2: A-share Market Trends - The A-share market in August is expected to be influenced by policies, external events, and economic fundamentals [5][6] - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has had a mixed performance in August, with 7 out of 15 years seeing gains [4] - Positive policies and limited external risks are likely to boost market sentiment in August [6] Group 3: Economic and Profit Recovery - Economic recovery trends are anticipated to continue in August, with improvements in industrial and overall A-share earnings growth [6] - The impact of mid-year earnings reports on A-share performance is diminishing, as seen in previous years [5] Group 4: Market Liquidity - Liquidity conditions are expected to remain accommodative in August, with potential increases in foreign capital inflows due to economic recovery expectations [6] - High market sentiment may lead to increased financing activities and new fund launches [6] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The market style in August is expected to be balanced, with growth and cyclical sectors likely to outperform [7] - The "barbell strategy" (combining technology and dividend stocks) may yield limited excess returns this August due to improving economic and profit expectations [8]

Core Insights - Pinduoduo's Q1 2025 revenue was 95.6722 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, but below market expectations of 101.6 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 14.7418 billion yuan, a 47% year-on-year decline, while non-GAAP net profit was 16.916 billion yuan, down 45% [1] - The company's stock price fell 13.64% in the US market following the earnings report, reflecting investor concerns about future growth [1][4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 95.6722 billion yuan, with online marketing services and other services generating 48.7222 billion yuan (15% growth) and transaction services generating 46.95 billion yuan (6% growth) [4] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 43% year-on-year to 33.4027 billion yuan, primarily due to higher promotional and advertising expenditures [4] - Pinduoduo's market capitalization dropped to 146.2 billion USD, losing over 10 billion USD in value after the stock price decline [4] Competitive Landscape - The e-commerce industry is experiencing intensified competition, with Pinduoduo facing limitations in policy incentives for consumers and insufficient responses to national subsidy policies compared to competitors [4] - To support merchants during short-term fluctuations, Pinduoduo launched a "100 billion support" strategy, increasing assistance and subsidies for small and medium-sized businesses, which may impact short-term profits [4] Management Outlook - Pinduoduo's management emphasized a focus on long-term intrinsic value rather than short-term financial performance [5] - The company aims to control costs, improve gross margins, and accelerate overseas expansion to stabilize stock prices, although challenges remain in achieving a profitable business model and performance recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing downward pressure due to multiple factors, including monetary policy changes, supply chain dynamics, and weakening demand [1] Supply Side - As of May 19, the current treatment charge (TC) is -43.03 USD/thousand tons, and the current refining charge (RC) is -4.30 cents/pound, indicating an expansion of negative processing fees [1] - Significant amounts of scrap copper are expected to continue entering the domestic market [1] - In April 2025, China imported 300,200 tons of refined copper, a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%, while exports reached 53,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 216.38% [1] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory rebounded from low levels during the week, while U.S. copper inventories increased significantly [1] Demand Side - Downstream demand is showing marginal weakness, with social inventory rebounding and terminal momentum weakening [1] - As of March 2025, apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1,372,400 tons, an increase of 93,800 tons, or 7.34% [1] - May marks the beginning of the demand off-season, with expected reductions in apparent consumption [1] - Cumulative sales of passenger vehicles from January to April 2025 reached 6.872 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] Market Outlook - Overall market expectations are uncertain, with copper prices under pressure due to weakening demand fundamentals, low social inventory, and tight supply expectations [1] - Despite domestic policy measures providing some support, the market remains in a state of strong expectations but weak realities [1] - Continuous monitoring of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probabilities and U.S.-China tariff policies is necessary [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. business activity is experiencing a significant slowdown in April, with a marked decline in market confidence [1] - The PMI data indicates that the growth rate of business activity is at its slowest since December 2023, reflecting an annualized growth rate of only 1.0% [1] - Inflationary pressures are increasing, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to stimulate a weakening economy [1] Economic Activity - The output growth in April is the slowest recorded since December 2023, indicating a concerning trend for the U.S. economy [1] - Manufacturing is largely stagnant, with any positive effects from tariffs being offset by heightened economic uncertainty, supply chain concerns, and declining exports [1] - The service sector is also slowing down, particularly in areas related to tourism and exports, due to a decrease in demand growth [1] Market Confidence - There is a sharp deterioration in confidence regarding business conditions for the upcoming year, largely driven by increasing concerns over policy impacts [1] - The overall sentiment in the market is negatively affected by the combination of economic slowdown and rising inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price spread between silicon iron and ferrosilicon is primarily influenced by cost and supply-demand changes, with significant price movements often triggered by cost variations since the futures market was established [2][30]. Group 1: Cost Changes - Cost changes predominantly drive price spread variations, often leading to extreme market conditions. Historical data shows that major price movements are frequently linked to manganese ore and coal-related costs, with manganese ore being particularly volatile due to high import dependence and various uncontrollable factors [3][31]. - The cost structure for silicon iron is mainly composed of electricity (50%-60%), coal (15%-25%), and other materials (10%-15%), while for ferrosilicon, manganese ore constitutes 55%-60% of the cost, followed by electricity (20%-35%) [7][10]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - Supply-demand fluctuations generally result in smaller price movements compared to cost changes. In recent years, the supply side has become more self-regulated, reducing the impact of policy-driven supply constraints on price spreads [4][32]. - The demand for ferrosilicon is significantly higher in steel production (over 90%) compared to silicon iron (60%-70%), which affects the price spread based on inventory levels and demand strength [10][11]. Group 3: Price Spread Evolution - The evolution of the price spread has matured over time, with trading becoming more timely and efficient since the futures market for silicon iron and ferrosilicon was launched in 2014. The price spread has transitioned from being lagged by spot prices to being actively traded [5][33]. - The historical price spread has undergone significant changes, particularly post-2020, where the price of silicon iron began to exceed that of ferrosilicon due to various factors including energy policies and production constraints [12][26]. Group 4: Historical Price Spread Review - The price spread between silicon iron and ferrosilicon has experienced various phases influenced by cost, demand, and supply dynamics. For instance, from 2015 to 2016, the price spread was primarily driven by cost changes and environmental regulations affecting supply [14][19]. - In 2021, the price spread saw a significant shift due to policy impacts, with silicon iron prices reaching historical highs while ferrosilicon prices lagged, leading to an expanded price spread [26][27]. Group 5: Recent Trends and Outlook - Since 2022, the price volatility of silicon iron and ferrosilicon has narrowed, returning to a cost-driven pricing logic. The price spread is expected to continue its downward trend into 2023, influenced by easing energy prices and high inventory levels [28][29].