Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in the attractiveness of the United States as a travel destination due to political actions and policies under the Trump administration, leading to a decrease in international tourist spending and overall tourism revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Tourism Industry - The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) reports that U.S. international tourist spending is expected to drop by $12.5 billion by 2025, making the U.S. the only country among 184 analyzed to forecast negative growth in international tourist spending last year [2][4]. - The projected international tourism revenue for the U.S. in 2025 is slightly below $169 billion, a decrease of approximately $12.5 billion from the previous year, and significantly lower than the peak levels of 2019 [4]. - The decline in tourism is affecting local economies that rely on international visitors, with notable impacts on hotel occupancy rates, job losses in the tourism service sector, and reduced demand for tourism-related services [4]. Group 2: Public Perception and Policy Effects - The political climate in the U.S. has transformed the perception of traveling to the country into a political statement for many potential visitors, with 46% of surveyed tourists indicating a reduced willingness to travel to the U.S. due to the Trump administration's policies [2][3]. - The article suggests that the U.S. is missing out on a global tourism boom, as the decline in inbound tourists and tourism spending reflects broader implications for the country's standing in the global tourism landscape [4]. - Recent U.S. actions, including threats towards other countries, are not only affecting travel to the U.S. but are also influencing tourists' decisions regarding travel to other destinations, such as Cuba [5].

一、研究观点 有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 有色商品日报 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，昨晚日本在提 | | | 前选举预期叠加扩张性财政叙事下，长期国债惨遭大量抛售，引起市场紧张情绪；而在 | | | 国际市场特朗普声称必须拥有格陵兰岛，威胁要在达沃斯高级别会议前对多个欧洲国 | | | 家加征关税，其主张也引发欧盟主要国家的反噬，使得美国再现股债汇三杀局面。库存 | | | 方面，LME 库存增加 8875 吨至 156300 吨；Comex 库存增加 4277 吨至 496805 吨； | | 铜 | SHFE 铜仓单下降 4462 吨至 148193 吨，BC 铜下降 25 吨至 11261 吨。昨晚美金融市场 | | | 动荡下避险情绪增加，铜价随之调整。另外，当前国内消费进入淡季，铜消费转弱，累 | | | 库力度强于近两年，这加大了产业内的分歧，单从产业现状和基本面来去看也存在调 | | | 整的需求，不过需要注意的是资金对铜的支撑仍然存在，因此较难出现大幅回落行情， ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesia's policy uncertainties, including nickel ore quota adjustments, consideration of taxing associated minerals, and fines for illegal mining, have led to a divergence in market expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will also be affected by these factors, with a wide - range of fluctuations in the short - term [4][8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in market sentiment next Tuesday, with a supply - demand situation of weak supply and strong demand. It is not recommended to participate in futures directly, but options can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are strong, and the spot purchase intention is increasing. The short - term downside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [52][55]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation. A clearer buying opportunity is expected in February - March. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [79][80][84]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: After the market has digested the negative factors, soybean meal prices may rebound at low levels. Soybean No.1 spot prices are stable and strong, and futures prices will follow the market sentiment [94][99]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with limited downward adjustment space before the Spring Festival [113][118]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, sugar prices are in a low - level consolidation. Domestically, the market maintains a weak basis expectation, and it is necessary to pay attention to import policy changes [136][138][164]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton lacks fundamental drivers, and domestic cotton prices continue to adjust. It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to trade based on demand [165][180]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices will fluctuate and adjust, and the futures market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage. Attention should be paid to the trading of off - season expectations after the Spring Festival [181][182][183]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices are in a pattern of weak peak - season performance. Futures prices are weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [197][198]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Nickel prices fluctuate widely, and stainless steel prices are affected by nickel - related factors and show wide - range fluctuations [7][8][9]. - **Inventory**: Refined nickel inventory in China decreased slightly, while LME nickel inventory increased. The inventory of the nickel - stainless steel industry chain decreased [10]. - **Market News**: Indonesia has introduced a series of policies, including restricting new smelting licenses, adjusting nickel ore quotas, and considering taxing associated minerals [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices fluctuated within a range [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased [30][31][32]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventory increased, and polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate [30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures prices first rose and then fell, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: High lithium prices may lead to the resumption of overseas lithium mines. Demand is strong in the off - season, and inventory has decreased [53][54]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Palm oil prices fluctuated, and soybean oil prices were in a range - bound operation [79][84]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Palm oil production in Malaysia may decrease in January, and Indonesia's B50 policy is uncertain. Soybean oil is affected by the US biodiesel policy and South American soybean production [80][83]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Price Trends**: Soybean meal prices were weak, and soybean No.1 prices oscillated [94]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: China's continuous purchase of US soybeans has a positive impact, while the USDA report has a short - term negative impact. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased, and spot prices are stable [94][97]. Corn - **Price Trends**: Spot and futures prices both increased [113][114]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices were stable, and corn starch inventory decreased [115][116][117]. Sugar - **Price Trends**: Internationally, New York raw sugar prices increased slightly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices decreased slightly [136][137]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's production increased slightly, India's production increased significantly, and Thailand's production decreased [154][155]. Cotton - **Price Trends**: ICE cotton prices first rose and then fell, and domestic cotton prices continued to adjust [165][168]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The USDA report adjusted the US and global cotton balances. Domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is in the off - season [169][174]. Pigs - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were strong, and futures prices fluctuated strongly [181]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is tight, and demand is stable. The market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage [181][182]. Peanuts - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [197]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. The inventory pressure may be postponed to after the Spring Festival [197][198].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Growth Forecast**: The economy is projected to achieve a 5% growth target for 2025, supported by year-end PMI surprises and earlier policy implementations [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth**: Estimated GDP growth for Q4 2025 is 4.6% YoY, with industrial production strengthening to 5.6% YoY due to improved PMI [1][6] - **K-Shaped Recovery**: The economy is expected to remain K-shaped, characterized by resilient exports and sluggish domestic demand [1] - **Exports and Imports**: Exports are estimated to grow by 2.0% YoY, while imports are expected to increase by 1.5% YoY in December, leading to a trade surplus of US$108.4 billion for the month [1][6] - **Retail Sales**: Retail sales are projected to remain subdued at approximately 1.0% YoY, primarily due to diminishing government subsidies [1][6] - **Fixed Asset Investment**: A contraction of -2.8% YoY in fixed asset investment is anticipated, marking the first decline since 1992 [1][6] Additional Important Insights - **Inflation Trends**: CPI is expected to rise to 0.8% YoY in December, while PPI may remain stable at -2.1% YoY, influenced by food prices and gold [2] - **Credit Data**: New RMB loans are projected at RMB1,000 billion, with a significant impact from a RMB500 billion policy-financing tool [3] - **Trade Dynamics**: Despite a slowdown in US-China trade, overall cargo throughput is expected to rise by approximately 1.9% YoY, with semiconductor demand remaining strong [1][6] Conclusion - The Chinese economy is on track to meet its growth targets, but challenges such as sluggish domestic demand and a contraction in fixed asset investment pose risks. The K-shaped recovery indicates disparities in growth across different sectors, with exports showing resilience while retail and investment lag behind.

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in commodity markets is driven by geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, and market sentiment, which presents both opportunities and risks for medium to long-term investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - The rise in crude oil prices is primarily due to tightening sanctions against Russia by the EU and the impending U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, leading to a decrease in supply [3]. - WTI crude oil has maintained a price above $60, with traders suggesting that it is unlikely to fall below this level unless there is a significant market downturn [3]. - The potential for further price increases exists if new sanctions are announced, indicating a bullish outlook for the medium to long term [3][5]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - The decline in copper and other industrial metals is linked to changing expectations regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with investors cautious ahead of upcoming employment data [4][5]. - Industrial metals are closely tied to economic demand, and concerns about delayed rate cuts have led to increased selling pressure, despite previous supply concerns [4]. - For medium to long-term investors, focusing on metals with strong demand and supply constraints is recommended, particularly after price corrections [5]. Group 3: Gold Market - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion among investors, particularly in light of stock market volatility [4]. - Gold prices are also influenced by interest rate expectations, and while there may be short-term gains, long-term trends will depend on broader market conditions [4][5]. - It is advised to maintain a portion of gold as a hedge against risk rather than pursuing aggressive trading strategies [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors should focus on supply-demand dynamics for oil and industrial metals, particularly in light of geopolitical developments and economic recovery trends [5][6]. - Monitoring U.S. employment reports is crucial for understanding future monetary policy directions, which will impact commodity markets significantly [5][6]. - Practical investment strategies include waiting for price corrections in oil, avoiding panic selling in industrial metals, and maintaining a balanced approach to gold investments [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to the game between high inventory accumulation and Indonesian risks. Stainless steel has a weak reality that drags down steel prices and is in a short - term low - level oscillation. Industrial silicon has a strong upward drive for the disk due to warehouse receipt depletion. Polysilicon is in a policy vacuum period and the disk returns to fundamentals. Lithium carbonate may face downward risks from mine resumption. Palm oil may see the end of short - term negative news with the MPOB report next week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in November. Soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation without an independent upward drive. Soybean meal is oscillating, waiting for the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report. Soybean No.1 is oscillating due to repeated trade sentiment. Corn requires attention to the spot market. Sugar requires attention to policy changes. Cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the near term. Live pigs are accumulating contradictions and waiting for spot confirmation. Peanuts are facing supply pressure [2][4][5][28][69][80]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and supply - demand imbalance on the one hand, and uncertainties in Indonesian policies on the other hand, result in a low - level oscillation. The replacement of nickel plates with ferronickel in the nickel alloy end and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity. However, the uncertainty of Indonesian supply governance policies makes short - sellers lack confidence [4]. - Stainless steel: The lack of upward drive in the real fundamentals, with weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle, high upstream inventory, and a large number of expiring warehouse receipts, leads to a low - level oscillation. Although the supply is elastic, the cost decline also limits the downward space [5]. - **Inventory Tracking** - Refined nickel: On November 7, the 27 - warehouse social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1934 tons to 50,680 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1002 tons to 253,104 tons [6]. - Stainless steel: In October, SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. On November 6, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly decreased to 946,000 tons, and the total social inventory of steel - linked stainless steel increased by 0.29% week - on - week [8]. - **Market News** - There are multiple events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of a nickel mine by the forestry working group, sanctions on mining companies, and regulations on the approval of RKAB. In addition, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Trump has proposed additional tariffs on China [9][10][11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The disk price is strongly oscillated, and the spot price has increased. It closed at 9220 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - Polysilicon: The disk center has declined, and the spot price is stable, closing at 53,215 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a slight reduction in weekly industry inventory. The southwest region has reduced production, and the overall output in November - December is expected to decrease. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone, but the demand may decline in the future [29][30]. - Polysilicon: The short - term weekly output has decreased, and the upstream inventory is flat. The demand side has a decrease in silicon wafer production scheduling [30][31]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon: The depletion of warehouse receipts provides upward drive for the disk. It is recommended to take a long - position approach when the price drops [33]. - Polysilicon: In the policy vacuum period, the disk trades based on supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices [33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract oscillates widely in the range of 77,000 - 83,000 tons. The 2511 contract closes at 80,460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1160 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract closes at 82,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1520 yuan/ton [69]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The weekly output increases to 21,534 tons, and the inventory decreases by 3405 tons to 124,000 tons. The cost of lithium carbonate may increase due to the supplementary payment of mining rights transfer income [70]. - Demand: In October 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 10GW/29.4GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting bidding, showing a decline compared to September [70]. - **Market Outlook** - There is a risk of price decline after the resumption of mines in Jiangxi. The futures main - contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [71]. 3.4 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The market is worried about high production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract decreased by 1.59% last week, with a possible short - term stabilization [80]. - Soybean oil: In a large - supply environment, it follows the oil and fat sector to oscillate weakly, but its strong export demand makes it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties, and the 01 contract increased by 0.39% last week [80]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: Malaysia may have high production in the fourth quarter, and the inventory is expected to be high. Indonesia has large export pressure in November. Although it may show a short - term end of negative news, the market has not fully priced in the high production in November - December. The inventory at the origin is expected to increase, and the price needs additional demand stimulation to stabilize [81]. - Soybean oil: The production situation in Brazil is good, and the supply is large. The domestic soybean arrival is sufficient, and the export demand may maintain the monthly de - stocking process. It is mainly for long - allocation but has no independent upward drive [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Report's Core View - Although the US Department of Agriculture has not released the latest data, Brazil's current export situation is good, significantly higher than the historical average, which has put downward pressure on CBOT soybean prices. Meanwhile, the increase in Brazilian exports has led to sufficient domestic supply, and the soybean inventory is still rising. It is expected that the supply will remain abundant in the future. The focus of the market will be on policy changes, and the import of new - season US soybeans will affect the market supply and demand around the Spring Festival [3] - Domestically, in the corn market, the new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is being concentratedly supplied. The quality and yield of corn in the Northeast are good, and farmers are actively selling, leading to price cuts. In North China, most of the corn is wet, with only a small amount of dried corn on the market. On the demand side, the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing enterprises is acceptable, and feed enterprises with low inventories are more willing to purchase. Currently, the supply exceeds demand, and the price of new grain is generally low. Future attention should be paid to national policies [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 粕类 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2938 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+1.84%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2339 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+1.39%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 32, down 33 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 28, down 3 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2920 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 18, down 13 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 211, down 2 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters estimates that the soybean export volume in October 2025 will be 734 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 731 million tons, a 65.7% increase from 443 million tons in October last year, and also higher than the 697 million tons in September this year. China accounted for 93% (650 million tons) of Brazil's soybean exports in September. From January to September this year, China accounted for 79.9% of Brazil's soybean exports, higher than the historical average of 74%. The soybean export volume in the first 10 months of this year will reach 102 billion tons, compared with 93.49 billion tons in the same period last year. The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association predicts that the soybean output in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 178.5 billion tons, a 3.9% increase from the revised output of 171.8 billion tons last year [2] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2140 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2450 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C01 + 40, down 7 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS01 + 100, down 24 from the previous day [4] Recent Market Information - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters estimates that the corn export volume in October 2025 will be 657 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 646 million tons, lower than the 698 million tons in September, but a 15.9% increase from 567 million tons in October last year. The estimated corn export volume from January to October this year is 3052 million tons, compared with 2929 million tons in the same period last year. ANEC estimates that the corn export volume in Brazil this year will be 4500 million tons, higher than 3780 million tons in 2024 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that natural rubber prices are expected to rise initially and then fall in the fourth quarter, with supply being a critical factor in determining rubber prices [1] - Supply-side conditions will significantly influence the annual production volume, and there is a high possibility of preemptive trading in the market [1] - If supply disruptions continue, the expectation for weaker prices will enhance the elasticity of rubber prices [1] Group 2 - Demand is expected to maintain moderate growth, with third-quarter data showing overall performance better than anticipated [1] - There is little change expected in overseas demand for the fourth quarter, while domestic demand is steadily increasing, awaiting favorable policy drivers [1] - Macro news this year has significantly impacted rubber prices, amplifying volatility, necessitating ongoing attention to the recovery situation post-U.S. interest rate cuts and the stimulating effects of domestic policies on the fundamentals [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to drive, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure and difficult price transmission. In the short - term, the trading situation has weakened, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions at low prices [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price trended stronger. The main contract 2511 opened at 9035 yuan/ton and closed at 9055 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (0.72%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 259,965 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,066 lots, an increase of 141 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 25 was 543,000 tons, unchanged from last week. Before the National Day, the downstream stocking demand increased, and the goods turnover in warehouses was good [1] Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. This week, the DMC quotes of some domestic monomer enterprises increased slightly by 100 - 200 yuan/ton compared to last week. The slight increase in the transaction price of DMC this week was supported by cost, supply - demand, and expectations [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, go long at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 51,480 yuan/ton and closed at 51,365 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.89% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 105,474 lots, and the trading volume was 184,786 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory also increased. The overall market sentiment cooled down, with large inventory pressure and expected insufficient production reduction in October [3][5] Strategy - Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 23, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.29% to 13119.82, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.21% to 3114.55. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2494.4 billion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4519.78, down 2.83 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Price: The weighted index of coke closed at 1734.4, down 10.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1229.0 yuan, down 10.7 [3][4]. - Factors: For coke, the third - round price cut is still expected, while some coking plants start the first - round price increase. The overall inventory is increasing, and traders' purchasing willingness has improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the pre - National Day replenishment sentiment is strong, and the total inventory has increased [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Price: Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the possible reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated lower on Tuesday and rebounded at night [5]. - Supply: Based on the current crop growth, India's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season may reach about 487 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous season, and the total sugar production is expected to increase 18% to 34.9 million tons [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Price: Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, with natural rubber being weak and 20 - number rubber being slightly stronger. It rose slightly at night due to the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - Production: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the production increased 1.6% to 7.95467 billion pieces [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - Price: The M2601 main contract of soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.49% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient, the oil mills maintain a high operating rate, and the inventory is rising. The price is expected to be weak under the supply pressure [8]. 2.5 Live Pigs - Price: The LH2511 main contract of live pigs closed at 12665 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.02% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of standard pigs increased significantly in September, and the market supply pressure is large. Although the pre - festival stocking enthusiasm has increased, the consumption has not reached the expected level, and the price may remain weak [8]. 2.6 Palm Oil - Price: The P2601 main contract of palm oil closed at 9054, a decline of 3.27%. The highest price was 9294, and the lowest was 8946 [9]. - Production: An Indonesian state - owned palm oil producer aims for a crude palm oil production of 415,000 tons in 2025 and 1.07 million tons in 2026 [9]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Price: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price is under pressure. The inventory is rising, and the spot basis premium has narrowed to 60 points [9]. - Factors: The macro - level policies are not releasing more positive signals, and the Fed's internal differences increase market uncertainty. The supply is tightened due to a mine shutdown, but the demand is still cautious [9]. 2.8 Cotton - Price: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13580 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday, and the inventory decreased by 181 lots [10]. - Export: From January to August 2025, China's cotton product export volume was 4.9341 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.49%, but the export value decreased 4.95%, and the unit price dropped 13.11% [10]. 2.9 Logs - Price: The 2511 contract opened at 808, closed at 805, with a daily reduction of 362 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [10]. - Market: The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [10]. 2.10 Iron Ore - Price: The 2601 main contract of iron ore fell 1.23% to 802.5 yuan [11]. - Supply - demand: The shipment decreased, the arrival increased, and the steel mills have pre - festival replenishment demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. 2.11 Asphalt - Price: The 2511 main contract of asphalt fell 1.2% to 3373 yuan [12]. - Supply - demand: The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly last week, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment increased. The price will fluctuate in the short term [12]. 2.12 Alumina - Price: The ao2601 contract closed at 2877 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the expected supply expansion suppresses the price. The price may fluctuate around the cost line [12]. 2.13 Shanghai Aluminum - Price: The al2511 contract closed at 20685 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The downstream peak - season characteristics are not obvious, but the consumption willingness is expected to improve. The price is looking for a bottom in the range [12]. 2.14 Steel - Price: The rb2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3340 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply - demand: The supply is weak and the demand is increasing, but the downstream has not improved. The price will fluctuate under the game of multiple factors [13].