中国银河证券首席策略分析师认为，从外部环境来看，中美经贸磋商取得阶段性成果，直接缓解市场对 外部不确定性的担忧。从国内来看，后续宏观政策有望持续加力，为A股市场营造良好的政策环境，也 为资本市场注入稳定的长期预期。叠加上市公司三季报展现出基本面韧性，市场向好趋势不改。短期来 看，11月正值政策与业绩空窗期，市场轮动速度或将加快。 自由现金流ETF（159201））及其联接基金（A：023917；C：023918）成分股聚焦自由现金流充裕的 行业龙头，行业覆盖有色金属、汽车、石油石化、电力设备等高壁垒领域，行业分散性显著，有效规避 单一行业波动风险，是底仓配置的有利选择。基金管理年费率0.15%，托管年费率0.05%，均为市场最 低费率水平。 11月5日，A股市场弱势调整，国证自由现金流指数低开后震荡上行，跌幅持续缩窄，现跌约0.5%左 右，成分股海陆重工涨停，常宝股份、上海建工、辽宁能源等跟涨。相关ETF方面，同类规模最大的自 由现金流ETF（159201）近16天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"8.93亿元，盘中成交额率先突破1.7亿 元，交投活跃且频现溢价交易。 每日经济新闻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The bank convertible bond market is experiencing a significant supply contraction, with the balance dropping from nearly 300 billion yuan in 2023 to about 150 billion yuan currently, and the market share declining from 38.97% to 22.64%. This is due to factors such as long - term net - breaking valuation in the banking sector and stricter regulatory reviews. The continuous reduction in supply has changed the market structure and triggered demand for alternative assets. Four types of assets are expected to replace bank convertible bonds, and the overall market impact is controllable [5][7][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bank Convertible Bond Status 3.1.1 Supply Side Since 2023, the balance of bank convertible bonds has been continuously declining and recently accelerated its contraction. The scale has shrunk from the peak of nearly 300 billion yuan in 2023 to about 150 billion yuan, and the proportion in the whole market has dropped from 38.97% to 22.64%. The issuance peak was from 2019 - 2022, and after 2022, new issuance stopped due to factors like net - breaking valuation and stricter regulations [7][9]. 3.1.2 Demand Side The decline in bank convertible bond balance has led to a decrease in fund allocation. The allocation of bank convertible bonds by funds has a high correlation with the balance change. Among them, first - tier bond funds show more resilience, while second - tier bond funds, convertible bond funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds continue to reduce their positions. In the past, some funds have used financial bonds, high - grade corporate bonds, or low - price bank convertible bonds as substitutes [14][16]. 3.2 Subsequent Selection of Bottom - Position Assets 3.2.1 Long - Duration Positive - Equity Dividend Assets Long - duration and high - rated utility - type convertible bonds can be used as high - quality bottom - position assets after the exit of bank convertible bonds. They have stable cash flows, continuous dividend policies, and high sensitivity to interest rate changes, providing reliable returns and price elasticity in a declining interest rate environment. Relevant convertible bonds include Yushui Convertible Bonds, Guiran Convertible Bonds, etc. [20]. 3.2.2 Relatively Low - Price Bank Convertible Bonds Relatively low - price and high - cost - effective bank convertible bonds have low call risk and long - term stability. Their underlying stocks are generally below the call price, and the credit risk is generally controllable due to high ratings and local government support. Examples are Ziyin Convertible Bonds and Qingnong Convertible Bonds [22][23]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bonds with 2 - Year Remaining Maturity and YTM Protection Convertible bonds with a remaining maturity of about 2 years and a yield between 0% - 8% can effectively reduce interest rate risk, have a balance between defense and income elasticity, and can provide a stable safety margin in a volatile market [24]. 3.2.4 Other State - Owned and Central - Enterprise Convertible Bonds State - owned and central - enterprise convertible bonds with a positive YTM have low credit risk, high yields, and stable inventories. They can meet the comprehensive allocation needs of institutions for low - volatility bottom - position assets, credit substitution, and potential conversion elasticity [28]. 3.3 Summary The continuous exit of bank convertible bonds is expected to have relatively limited overall market impact. The market has long - term expectations for this trend, and there are sufficient alternative assets. Institutions can also adjust their strategies. Four types of assets are expected to replace bank convertible bonds in the future [33][34].