1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of August, convertible bonds rebounded strongly, recovering losses from the end of July and reaching new highs. High - priced bonds performed strongly, while low - priced bonds were mediocre. Tech and cyclical sectors led the gains, and the pharmaceutical sector declined. The industry theme showed high rotation. The strong performance of convertible bonds was supported by three factors: the resilience of the equity market, high bullish sentiment and continuous inflow of funds into the convertible bond market, and a high forced - redemption rate leading to an imbalance in supply - demand. The positive sentiment in the convertible bond market is expected to continue. It is recommended to pay attention to dividend - low - volatility convertible bonds such as bank convertible bonds and bottom - up opportunities of high - elasticity varieties [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's Viewpoint and Outlook - In the first week of August, convertible bonds rebounded strongly. Structurally, high - priced bonds were strong and low - priced bonds were mediocre. Tech and cyclical sectors led the gains, and the pharmaceutical sector declined. The industry theme had high rotation. The strong performance was due to the resilience of the equity market, high bullish sentiment and fund inflow, and a high forced - redemption rate. There are no obvious short - term negative factors, and the positive sentiment in the convertible bond market is expected to last. Attention should be paid to the cost - performance switch between pure bonds and convertible bonds, especially bank convertible bonds, and bottom - up opportunities of high - elasticity varieties. The future will shift from position - winning to structure - winning [1][5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, convertible bonds and underlying stocks rebounded, with valuations rising strongly and convertible bonds having strong follow - up ability. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the whole - market convertible bonds was 33%, up 1.68% week - on - week, and the latest quantile was at the 91.10% percentile since 2017. The valuation increase of high - and low - rated convertible bonds was similar this week, and the valuation quantile of high - rated convertible bonds was higher than that of low - rated ones. - This week, convertible bonds rose strongly following the underlying stocks, and the yield to maturity hit a new low since 2017, reporting - 5.60%. As of now, the conversion premium rate index, pure bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 42.35%, 39.35%, and - 5.60% respectively, changing + 0.29%, + 3.87%, and - 0.86% from last week, and their current quantile levels were at the 62.60, 68.90, and 0.00 percentiles since 2017 [4][6][9]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Youzu, Baidian, Haopeng, Dongcai, Xince, and Longhua Convertible Bonds issued early - redemption announcements. Currently, there are 24 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements and have not delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 5.1 billion yuan. There are 45 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 10 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Three convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [4][14][18]. 3.3.2 Downgrade - This week, Ou22 Convertible Bond proposed a downgrade, and Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 announced a downgrade to the bottom. As of now, 139 convertible bonds are in the non - downgrade period, 24 cannot be downgraded due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downgrade trigger price without an announcement, 31 are accumulating downgrade days, and 4 have issued board - of - directors' plans for downgrades but have not gone to the general meeting of shareholders [4][21]. 3.3.3 Put - back - This week, Tianchuang Convertible Bond issued a put - back announcement. As of now, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - back announcements, 4 are accumulating put - back trigger days, 3 of which are in the non - downgrade period and 1 has proposed a downgrade [4][24]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Weidao Convertible Bond issued an issuance announcement. According to the latest announcement, there are no bonds to be listed next week. As of now, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approval - registration process, with a to - be - issued scale of 5.7 billion yuan, and 4 in the listing - committee - approval process, with a to - be - issued scale of 9 billion yuan [4][26][28].

Core Viewpoint - The bank convertible bond market is experiencing a significant contraction in supply, driven by strong performance in bank stocks, leading to a reduction in the total balance of bank convertible bonds from nearly 300 billion yuan at the peak in 2023 to approximately 150 billion yuan currently [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total balance of bank convertible bonds is expected to shrink by at least 100 billion yuan this year due to the early redemption of several bonds and the lack of new issuances [2][3]. - As of July 14, 2023, the market share of bank convertible bonds has decreased from a peak of approximately 38.97% to about 22.64% [2][7]. - The strong performance of bank stocks, with the bank sector index reaching a historical high, has triggered the early redemption of several convertible bonds [5][10]. Group 2: Institutional Response - Institutions are beginning to shift their asset allocation strategies in response to the rapid loss of quality assets in the bank convertible bond market, with some moving towards high-rated convertible bonds in non-bank financials and public utilities [1][11]. - The average allocation of convertible bonds in various asset management products has reached around 78%, indicating a sustained interest despite the market's contraction [9]. - Institutions are actively seeking alternative investment opportunities, focusing on high-rated, low-volatility convertible bonds as replacements for bank convertible bonds [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing contraction in the bank convertible bond market may lead to increased difficulty in selecting suitable bonds, prompting some investors to exit the market [10]. - The focus on non-bank financial and public utility sectors is expected to grow, as these sectors are perceived to have lower credit risk and potential benefits from improved equity risk preferences [12]. - The potential for a "Davis double" effect, where both stock price increases and valuation improvements occur, is seen as a favorable scenario for convertible bonds in the current market environment [10].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing a significant reduction in supply, leading to increased scarcity and heightened interest from investors, particularly in bank convertible bonds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since July, there has been a concentrated redemption and conversion of bank convertible bonds, resulting in a shrinking asset pool. As of July 10, the total market for convertible bonds has decreased to 668.08 billion yuan, down 65.54 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [1]. - The current market is undergoing a period of intensive adjustment, with 456 convertible bonds entering redemption and conversion phases, representing 95.36% of the total market size [1]. - The convertible bond market has shown strong upward momentum this year, with the Wind convertible bond index rising by 18.17% year-to-date as of July 10 [2]. Group 2: Performance of Bank Convertible Bonds - Bank convertible bonds are particularly attractive due to the strong credit quality of the issuing banks and the performance of bank stocks, which have seen significant increases due to institutional investments [2][3]. - Several bank convertible bonds have successfully triggered mandatory redemption and conversion, achieving high conversion rates, such as Chengdu Bank and Suzhou Bank with rates of 99.94% and 99.93% respectively [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - There is a growing concern among investors regarding the high valuation of convertible bonds, with some analysts suggesting that entering the market at this stage may not be wise [2][4]. - Despite the high valuations, there remains a demand for convertible bonds, particularly from institutional investors seeking to enhance their fixed-income portfolios [5][6]. - Investment strategies are shifting, with a preference for large-cap convertible bonds linked to major stocks, especially in sectors like banking, photovoltaic, and agriculture [6].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 755 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan on the same day due to 985 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [2] - The overnight pledged repo rate slightly increased to 1.31%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate rose to 1.47% [4] - The yield on major interbank bonds mostly increased, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's June CPI rose by 0.1%, marking a turnaround after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [13] - The June PPI fell by 3.6%, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%, influenced by seasonal price drops in raw materials and increased green energy supply [13] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - The central government plans to issue 60 billion yuan of government bonds in Macau on July 16 [16] - The National Development Bank will auction up to 38 billion yuan of fixed-rate bonds on July 10 [16] - A series of negative credit events were reported for various companies, indicating a trend of downgrades in credit ratings [16]

Core Viewpoint - The modification of CIPS rules is expected to accelerate the internationalization of the RMB, benefiting banks' cross-border business expansion [1][5] Summary by Sections Bank Sector Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market with a 3.77% increase, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.54%. The performance of different types of banks includes: state-owned banks (+2.76%), joint-stock banks (+4.41%), city commercial banks (+4.01%), and rural commercial banks (+2.47%). Notably, 41 listed banks saw their stock prices rise, with Zhejiang Commercial Bank (+7.92%), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (+7.6%), and Shanghai Bank (+7.53%) leading the gains. As of July 4, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.70, and the dividend yield was 5.65% [2] CIPS Rule Revision - On July 6, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) solicited opinions on the draft of the revised CIPS business rules. The main focus of the revision is to improve the management mechanism for participants and set only principle-based requirements for their business behaviors. This revision is expected to further promote the internationalization of the RMB and support the development of banks' cross-border business. The optimization of business rules is seen as necessary and forward-looking, enhancing the attractiveness of CIPS and increasing the international influence of the RMB [3] Investment Opportunities in the Banking Sector - The banking index reached a closing price of 4603.91 on July 4, marking a nearly 10-year high, with a weekly increase of 3.77%. Three key investment opportunities are identified: 1. The low interest rate environment continues to attract medium to long-term funds, with insurance capital increasingly investing in bank stocks. For instance, Ping An Life increased its stake in Postal Savings Bank of China H-shares to 13% as of June 30. The stable dividend yield of banks is expected to outperform bonds and wealth management returns [4] 2. The low allocation of public funds and the expansion of broad-based indices are expected to bring incremental capital inflows, benefiting quality regional banks significantly [4] 3. The acceleration of convertible bond conversions among small and medium-sized banks is anticipated to provide short-term opportunities, as seen with Qilu Bank announcing early redemption of its convertible bonds [4] Investment Recommendation - The modification of CIPS rules is expected to enhance the internationalization of the RMB and benefit banks' cross-border business. The acceleration of convertible bond conversions among small and medium-sized banks is likely to strengthen their capital base. The growth of medium to long-term funds and the potential recovery of public fund allocations are expected to reshape bank valuations positively. The company maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector's allocation value and continues to recommend investment in this area [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market for convertible bonds in the banking sector is expected to shrink significantly this year, with an estimated reduction of up to 100 billion yuan due to the large-scale exit of convertible bonds, which may pose challenges for asset management institutions in their asset allocation strategies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The anticipated "shrinkage" of the convertible bond market is driven by the expiration of existing bonds, leading to a decrease in the overall market size [1] - The decline in the supply of convertible bonds is expected to increase pressure on the existing market, potentially affecting the valuation of these financial instruments [1] Group 2: Asset Management Implications - Convertible bonds have become a standard component in the "fixed income plus" strategy for asset management products, enhancing yield for institutions [1] - With the supply of convertible bonds decreasing while demand remains strong, asset management firms may need to explore more diverse options for yield-enhancing base assets beyond just increasing their allocation to convertible bonds [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by approximately 10 billion yuan this year, and by the end of 2025, it may be around 9 billion yuan. If other commercial banks can follow the example of state - owned banks' low - PB private placements, there may be a possibility of supplementary supply of bank convertible bonds [3][4]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have the characteristics of high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities for low - volatility and high - rating, and photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds for large capital capacity [3][40]. - For photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds, it is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. When the convertible bond price is low, gradually build a position [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by about 10 billion yuan this year - As of June 30, 2025, there were 10 bank convertible bonds in the market, with a balance of 13.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 bonds and 11.1 billion yuan compared with the end of 2023. If the relevant convertible bonds are all delisted, the balance of bank convertible bonds will further shrink by 10.13 billion yuan to 8.98 billion yuan by the end of 2025 compared with the end of 2024 [4]. - The shrinkage of bank convertible bond scale may be irreversible in the short term. It is necessary to observe the progress of bank capital replenishment. Currently, the policy supports state - owned large - scale banks to replenish core tier - one capital. This year, the private placement prices of four state - owned big banks were lower than 1 - time PB, about 0.7 - time PB. There are bank convertible bonds totaling 2.9 billion yuan that have been announced but not issued, and the current PB multiples of the underlying stocks are between 0.5 - 0.7 times [4]. 2. The replacement bottom - position varieties should have three characteristics: high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity - Before 2024, bank convertible bonds mainly served as bottom - position allocation varieties, with limited contribution to returns. Since 2024, due to the strengthening of the dividend style, bank convertible bonds have advantages in both returns and volatility. After bank convertible bonds exit the market, investors may return to the pre - 2024 investment model, and the difficulty of participation has increased. Some investors may leave the convertible bond market [13]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. Configuration is the primary function, and individual bond elastic returns are a by - product [13]. 3. Low - volatility and high - rating: AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities - As of June 30, there were 4 non - banking finance convertible bonds, with 3 AAA - rated ones having a total scale of 1.46 billion yuan. They belong to the same large - finance industry as bank convertible bonds, with low risks of underlying stock delisting and credit default. After a sharp rise, it is not recommended to chase the high. When the convertible bond price returns to around 110 - 115 yuan, it may be a good bottom - position allocation buying point [17]. - The so - called "general public utilities" include public utilities and transportation. There are 3 AAA - rated convertible bonds in this sector, with a balance of 1 billion yuan. The advantage is a long remaining term, and the disadvantage is a relatively high current convertible bond price and insufficient defense against underlying stock decline [18][20]. 4. Large capital capacity: Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds - Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding are both strong - cycle industries. The current balance of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds is 6.08 billion yuan, and the balance of pig - breeding convertible bonds is 2.72 billion yuan. The photovoltaic equipment sector's net profit turned negative in 2024, and the pig - breeding sector may have passed the most difficult period, but the pig price has been falling since August 2024 [21]. - The advantages of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds are low prices and high capital accommodation. It is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. The advantage of pig - breeding convertible bonds is mainly large capital capacity, and it is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in the pig price [22].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the equity market showed strong performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3400 points, driven by sector rotation and strong small-cap stocks [5][6] - The convertible bond index recorded a notable increase of 3.34% in June, supported by core bank convertible bonds and the strong performance of small-cap stocks [6][5] - The report highlights that the potential yield correction for convertible bonds has reached a critical point, with a remaining potential yield of only 0.74% as of June 27, indicating a significant change in asset characteristics [21][22][24] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the need to adapt strategies in response to high valuations, suggesting a focus on identifying high-cost performance convertible bonds while avoiding overexposure to high valuations [15][46] - It recommends a diversified approach in constructing portfolios, including the exclusion of bank convertible bonds, a relaxed requirement for absolute YTM in the 1-2 year high YTM strategy, and increased allocation to the technology sector [46][47][48] - The report identifies specific convertible bonds to focus on, including Green Energy Convertible Bond, Jia Yuan Convertible Bond, and others, categorized by strategy [50][49]

Group 1 - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 350 billion yuan, indicating the arrival of an index-based investment era in the bond market [1] - Public funds in the first half of the year distributed a total of 127.5 billion yuan, with bond funds accounting for over 85% of the total distribution [1] - International gold prices increased by over 25% in the first half of 2025, driven by safe-haven demand, and are expected to continue rising [1] Group 2 - Several bank convertible bonds are facing mandatory redemption due to strong stock performance, leading to a contraction in the convertible bond market [2] - Chinese banks are increasingly investing in bonds, with small and medium-sized banks' bond investment balances rising to 46.41 trillion yuan, and large banks reaching 49.54 trillion yuan [2] Group 3 - The production of forest food in China has exceeded 200 million tons annually, with significant contributions from various regions [3] - The "thermal quenching" technology developed by researchers allows for precise switching of quantum materials between conductive and insulating states, potentially increasing electronic product speeds significantly [3] Group 4 - Leading photovoltaic glass companies are planning to reduce production by up to 30% due to a significant drop in prices [4] - *ST Yuancheng is under investigation for suspected financial data misrepresentation, which could lead to forced delisting [4] Group 5 - Lenovo Holdings plans to reduce its stake in Lakala by up to 3%, equating to approximately 23.64 million shares, due to business arrangements [5] - The actual controller of Baichuan Co., Ltd. is under investigation, but the company's operations remain normal [6] Group 6 - *ST Aowei reported an asset loss of approximately 25.04 million yuan due to poor storage management by a processing partner [6] - Shida Shenghua expects a net loss of 52 to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to production issues and declining product prices [7] Group 7 - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.82% and the Dow Jones up 0.89%, influenced by a strong labor market and reduced interest rate expectations [8] - Tesla's stock fell over 7% amid legislative changes, while solar and wind energy stocks rose [9]

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - In the first half of 2025, institutional behavior showed three major changes: asset management extended duration, banks faced dual pressure on liabilities and performance, and insurance shifted some demand towards equities [3][4]. - The bond market outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates limited compression space for short-term spreads, while long-term demand from banks remains, potentially benefiting the downward trend of interest rates [4][5]. - The continuous reduction in bank convertible bonds is significantly altering market structure and triggering alternative allocation demands, with various funds seeking to fill the gap left by diminishing convertible bond supply [5][6]. Group 2: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - From January to May 2025, the motorcycle industry saw total sales of 6.822 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with significant growth in exports [8][9]. - Specific companies like Chunfeng Power and Qianjiang Motorcycle reported varied sales performance, with Chunfeng Power's fuel motorcycle sales increasing by 23% year-on-year, while Qianjiang Motorcycle experienced a 6% decline in total sales [9][10]. - The overall outlook for motorcycle exports remains positive, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [15]. Group 3: Aluminum Industry Overview - The aluminum market is currently experiencing a tight supply situation, with domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory dropping to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons week-on-week [17][18]. - Despite a seasonal slowdown in demand, the low inventory levels are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices, while the overall aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth [22]. - The domestic aluminum oxide market is showing signs of recovery, with production capacity increasing and a slight rise in operating rates, although the market remains relatively loose [21][22]. Group 4: Alternative Investment Strategies - A民间预测指标 has emerged as a significant indicator for asset price movements, particularly in relation to the U.S. recession expectations, influencing various markets including stocks, bonds, and commodities [25]. - The indicator has shown strong correlations with market trends, suggesting that investors should integrate it with traditional economic data for more comprehensive asset allocation strategies [25]. Group 5: Gold Trading Strategy - The gold trading strategy is structured into three goals: determining long-term trends, analyzing strategic asset allocation value, and managing short-term volatility to control maximum drawdown [27]. - The strategy anticipates potential maximum drawdowns of 15%-20% during specific economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of market context in gold investment [27][28].