1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so it is recommended to take profits at high prices [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, geopolitical instability in Iran has brought certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [6]. - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [9]. - For rubber, the seasonal pattern is weak. A short - term bearish view is adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be considered, and partial position - building is suggested for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, fundamentally, corporate comprehensive profits are at a moderately low level. Supply reduction is limited with production at a historical high, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. Although there may be short - term export rush before April 1st due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, the overall situation of strong supply and weak demand persists, and a short - term long position is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, while a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, currently, styrene non - integrated profits are moderately low with large upward valuation repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and styrene production is increasing with continuous inventory reduction at ports. It is advisable to go long on styrene non - integrated profits before the first quarter [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. PE valuation has further downward space. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, inventory may decline from a high level, and it is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out after the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA will be strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is under profit pressure and will gradually reduce load due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and medium - term opportunities to go long on dips should be grasped [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new plant commissioning. The valuation is currently neutral year - on - year, and there is a risk of a rebound in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran. In the medium term, the valuation is expected to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes in Shandong, Henan, etc., with a total basis of - 41 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1791 yuan/ton [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes in Jiangsu, etc., the main futures contract increased by 45 yuan/ton to 2239 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 53 yuan [5]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan/barrel, a 3.01% decline, to 438.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures also declined. Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed inventory accumulation for gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly with a technical bearish signal. Bulls cited seasonal and demand expectations, while bears pointed to weak demand and uncertain macro expectations. As of January 15, 2026, Shandong tire enterprise full - steel tire and semi - steel tire operating rates changed, and as of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Spot prices of some rubber products decreased [11][12][13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan, with a basis change. Cost - end prices were stable, the overall operating rate was 79.6% with changes in different methods. The downstream operating rate was 43.9% and decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed [15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene decreased, and the basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene was unchanged, and the futures price increased with a weakened basis. Upstream operating rate, port inventory, and downstream operating rates of related products changed [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polyethylene decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 6695 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased. The basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polypropylene decreased by 96 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased. The basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and production enterprise, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and the PX CFR decreased. The basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. PX and PTA loads decreased, some domestic and overseas plants had load - adjustment operations. January imports from South Korea increased, and November - end inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased. The basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. PTA and downstream loads decreased, some plants had load - adjustment operations, and social inventory decreased [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased. The basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The supply - side load increased slightly with different changes in different production methods. Some domestic and overseas plants had load - adjustment operations. Downstream loads decreased, import arrivals were expected, and port inventory increased. Valuation and cost - related profits and prices changed [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] - For rubber, it has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 4.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.89%, at 444.90 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 34.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.33%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil fell 15.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%, to 3087.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.45 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; SPR increased by 0.21 million barrels to 413.68 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 8.98 million barrels to 251.01 million barrels, a 3.71% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 129.24 million barrels, a 0.02% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.74 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.55% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 43.14 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2273 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 17 yuan [5][10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 61 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 13 yuan/ton, closing at 1801 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 3.1 - ton increase from the previous week, a 2.5% increase. The spot prices of some rubber products also changed [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 124 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. Factory and social inventories increased [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5585 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene widened by 59 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 7250 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the active styrene contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 7103 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene strengthened by 113 yuan/ton to 147 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 tons to 10.06 tons. The weighted operating rate of the "Three S" products on the demand side was 40.90%, a 0.11% increase [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6840 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis strengthened by 25 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 6 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6592 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The basis strengthened by 48 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread narrowed by 37 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and PX CFR fell 16 dollars to 881 dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 3). The 3 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX operating rate was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian operating rate was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, a 5 - ton decrease from the previous month [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 5050 yuan. The basis was - 64 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan (- 8). The PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot and futures processing fees increased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis was - 140 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 yuan (+1). The overall supply - side operating rate was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and the East China departure was 0.79 tons on January 14. The port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of some raw materials changed [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and wait for OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall for verification [2]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, there is feasibility to buy on dips [5]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, bearish expectations for the fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral strategy, trade short - term, enter and exit quickly, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, but supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is entering the off - season, and exports also face off - season pressure. With a strong supply and weak demand situation, short - term electricity prices support PVC, and in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial industry production cuts [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and styrene's port inventory is decreasing. One can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, and the overall inventory is expected to decline from a high level. One can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight decline in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. The disk price may bottom out when the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, the import decline in January is limited, and the port inventory accumulation period will continue. In the medium term, it is expected to compress the valuation without further domestic production cuts [31]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 11.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 2.57%, at 416.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories decreased, while diesel inventory increased [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and wait for OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall for verification [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes, and the main futures contract fell 26 yuan/ton to 2267 yuan/ton, with an MTO profit of - 106 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, there is feasibility to buy on dips [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas changed, with an overall basis of - 60 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, bearish expectations for the fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the rubber price broke through the range. Bulls and bears had different views. Tire开工率 showed marginal changes, and inventory increased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral strategy, trade short - term, enter and exit quickly, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The overall start - up rate increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased, and inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, but supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is entering the off - season, and exports also face off - season pressure. With a strong supply and weak demand situation, short - term electricity prices support PVC, and in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial industry production cuts [13]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - end price of pure benzene and the price of the active contract rose, and the basis decreased. The spot and active contract prices of styrene rose, and the basis strengthened. Supply - side start - up rate increased, and port inventory decreased. Demand - side start - up rate also increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and styrene's port inventory is decreasing. One can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price and spot price rose, the basis weakened, the upstream start - up rate increased, inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate decreased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, and the overall inventory is expected to decline from a high level. One can go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price and spot price rose, the basis weakened, the upstream start - up rate decreased, inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate decreased [21][22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The EIA monthly report predicts a slight decline in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. The disk price may bottom out when the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. PX load increased in China and Asia. Some domestic and overseas devices had changes. PTA load increased. Import volume from South Korea to China increased, and inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan, the spot price rose, the basis increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased. PTA load increased, some devices restarted or increased production, and some downstream devices had maintenance. Terminal load decreased, and inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan, the spot price rose, the basis decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased. Supply - side load increased, some domestic and overseas devices had changes. Downstream load increased, terminal load decreased, and port inventory decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall load is still high, the import decline in January is limited, and the port inventory accumulation period will continue. In the medium term, it is expected to compress the valuation without further domestic production cuts [31].