Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - This week, crude oil fluctuated repeatedly following geopolitical situations. US inventories entered the inventory accumulation window, but refinery demand remained, and the fundamentals did not decline. - In terms of supply and demand changes, US commercial crude oil inventories increased, and Iraq in the Middle East stated it would increase exports. - At the macro - political level, the IMF raised its economic forecast, and the IEA also raised its crude oil demand forecast, expecting a global demand growth rate of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, slightly higher than 850,000 barrels per day in 2025. Politically, the US - Iran relationship remained in a stalemate, and the US Energy Secretary said he would visit Venezuela in the coming weeks. - Satellite maps show that the Caribbean Islands (excluding Cuba) imported at least about 230,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela's oil has flowed back to Caribbean storage tanks for the first time in years, creating conditions for refineries in the US, Europe, and Asia to obtain heavy - sulfur crude oil. It is believed that with the US Energy Secretary's planned visit to Venezuela, Venezuela's production increase is in progress, with an expected step - by - step and slow growth. At the same time, it is judged that the internal unrest in Iran and the US - Iran relationship will enter a state of low - intensity frictions, and Iran's production capacity has passed the peak black - box test. Against the backdrop of one increase (Venezuela) and one shortfall (Iran), there is still a bottom for oil prices. From a medium - to - long - term perspective, it is still cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, crude oil fluctuated with geopolitical situations. US inventories entered the accumulation phase, but refinery demand remained, and fundamentals did not decline [15]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased, and Iraq planned to increase exports [15]. - **Macro - Political Situation**: The IMF raised the economic forecast, and the IEA raised the crude oil demand forecast. Politically, the US - Iran relationship was in a stalemate, and the US Energy Secretary planned to visit Venezuela [15]. - **View Summary**: Venezuela's production increase is in progress, and the US - Iran relationship will enter a state of low - intensity frictions. Oil prices have a bottom, and it is cost - effective to go long in the shale oil break - even range [15]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread, all related to WTI oil prices [44]. - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: Such as the euro - zone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, and GDP growth rate forecasts of major countries, which are related to oil consumption [48][49]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil - producing countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [55]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyzed the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, and the M1/M4 month - spread of WTI crude oil [59]. - **Inter - Regional Spreads**: Studied the spreads between Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI [62]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyzed the forward curve of LGO diesel, the near - far structure of refined oils, and the spreads between RB/HO and LGO/RB [65][66]. - **Crack Spreads**: Examined the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [72][75][78]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC & OPEC+ Supply**: OPEC has a series of production policies, including production cuts and increases. The production and supply situations of OPEC 12 countries and OPEC+ major member countries are also presented [84][86]. - **US Supply**: The US has various policies and actions related to oil supply, such as changes in SPR funds, sanctions on other countries, and policies on oil well and rig operations [114][115]. - **Other Supply**: The production situations of Canada, Norway, Brazil, and China are included [123]. 5. Crude Oil Demand - **US Demand**: Covers refinery operations, direct and derived demands for crude oil, and micro - level demand indicators [129][134][146]. - **China Demand**: Includes direct and derived demands for crude oil, refinery operations, and micro - level demand indicators [151][156][164]. - **European Demand**: Analyzed refinery operations and direct and derived demands for crude oil [170][174]. - **Indian Demand**: Focused on refinery operations and direct and derived demands for crude oil [180]. - **Other Demand**: Such as the average daily speeds of different types of oil tankers and the oil transportation quality model [184][187]. 6. Crude Oil Inventory - **US Inventory**: Includes commercial crude oil inventory, inventory available days, and inventories in different regions, as well as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene inventories [194][196][198]. - **China Inventory**: Covers port inventories, gasoline, and diesel inventories [203][206][209]. - **European Inventory**: Analyzed the ARA inventory and the inventories of 16 European countries [214][219][222]. - **Singapore Inventory**: Includes gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories [226]. - **Fujairah Inventory**: Covers gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories [231]. - **Marine Inventory**: Analyzed the floating storage of refined oils and crude oil at sea [236][240][244]. 7. Meteorological Disasters - **Meteorological Disasters in Crude Oil Supply Areas**: Include storm models in the US Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East, as well as wildfire probability models in Canada and rainstorm & thunderstorm in the US Gulf of Mexico [249][255]. 8. Alternative Data - **Crude Oil Alternative Data**: Such as the in - transit supply of crude oil by sea, the crude oil transportation demand model, the shipping freight in the Arabian Sea, and the probability of the Hormuz Strait being blocked [261].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] - For rubber, it has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 4.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.89%, at 444.90 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 34.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.33%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil fell 15.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%, to 3087.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.45 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; SPR increased by 0.21 million barrels to 413.68 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 8.98 million barrels to 251.01 million barrels, a 3.71% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 129.24 million barrels, a 0.02% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.74 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.55% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 43.14 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2273 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 17 yuan [5][10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 61 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 13 yuan/ton, closing at 1801 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 3.1 - ton increase from the previous week, a 2.5% increase. The spot prices of some rubber products also changed [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 124 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. Factory and social inventories increased [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5585 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene widened by 59 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 7250 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the active styrene contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 7103 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene strengthened by 113 yuan/ton to 147 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 tons to 10.06 tons. The weighted operating rate of the "Three S" products on the demand side was 40.90%, a 0.11% increase [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6840 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis strengthened by 25 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 6 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6592 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The basis strengthened by 48 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread narrowed by 37 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and PX CFR fell 16 dollars to 881 dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 3). The 3 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX operating rate was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian operating rate was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, a 5 - ton decrease from the previous month [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 5050 yuan. The basis was - 64 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan (- 8). The PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot and futures processing fees increased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis was - 140 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 yuan (+1). The overall supply - side operating rate was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and the East China departure was 0.79 tons on January 14. The port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of some raw materials changed [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for next year is marginally improving with limited downside. Due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, there will be bearish fundamentals, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The short - term trading strategy is neutral, with a short - selling strategy if it falls below 16,000. It is also recommended to partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [10][11][14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. In the short - term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, while in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large upward repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage after short - term inventory drawdown. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks in the short - term due to the tense situation in Iran [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.02% decline, at 416.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.00 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 33.00 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase, to 2929.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419.06 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 413.46 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 242.04 million barrels, a 3.29% increase; diesel inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels to 129.27 million barrels, a 4.52% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 22.98 million barrels, a 0.27% decrease; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.05 million barrels to 44.03 million barrels, a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 15 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 127 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The tire开工率 has marginally deteriorated. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 tons as of December 21, 2025, a 2.5% increase from the previous month [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral short - term trading strategy, or wait and see. Short if it falls below 16,000. Partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 255 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period, with the calcium - carbide method at 78.4% (a 0.1% decrease) and the ethylene method at 79.3% (a 5% increase). The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. Factory inventory was 30.9 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons), and social inventory was 106.3 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons) [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5442 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The basis was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 138.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 99.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The EB spread between the first and second contracts was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, a 2.47 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase [22]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, a 2.3 - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, a 2.75 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 7.11 tons, a 0.48 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 144 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decrease [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the oversupply situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom out [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 14 dollars to 886 dollars. The basis was 1 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 42 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX operating rate was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase. A 820,000 - ton overseas plant in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, a 42,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In November, the inventory was 4.02 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 367 dollars (a 2 - dollar decrease), the South Korean PX - MX was 147 dollars (a 7 - dollar decrease), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 dollars (a 1 - dollar decrease) [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5070 yuan. The basis was - 48 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. Some plants were under maintenance or restarted. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 203 tons as of January 4, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 43 yuan to 367 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market increased by 14 yuan to 384 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, paying attention to the rhythm [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan to 3717 yuan. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, a 0.2% increase, with the syngas - based method at 78.6% (a 2.8% increase) and the ethylene - based method at 71.3% (a 1.2% decrease). Some plants were under maintenance or planned to start production. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 7 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 72.5 tons, a 5000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 756 yuan, that of domestic ethylene - based production was - 892 yuan, and that of coal - based production was 188 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 540 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious of short - term rebound risks due to the tense situation in Iran. Expect further valuation compression in the medium - term without further production cuts in China [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply situation has slightly improved, but the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level in December. The port inventory build - up will continue, and there is a risk of further price rebounds due to potential increased overhauls [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The U.S. Department of Energy postponed data release due to the Christmas holiday. INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.10 yuan/barrel, or 0.02%, to 442.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 15.00 yuan/ton, or 0.61%, to 2489.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, or 0.33%, to 3016.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 35 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 2.5 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2162 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 23 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 30 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities generally rose, and rubber prices increased significantly. Rubber winter - storage buying demand is a bullish factor. Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls focus on factors such as limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and potential under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire inventory increased. As of December 14, 2025, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 1.152 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons, or 2.6%. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed. [9][10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 24 yuan to 4757 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 277 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 120 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of ethylene was 745 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of caustic soda was 715 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton). The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%; the calcium - carbide method was 77.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. Factory inventory was 329,000 tons (down 16,000 tons), and social inventory was 1.057 million tons (down 3,000 tons) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5315 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5434 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton (widened by 27 yuan/ton). The spot price of styrene rose 25 yuan/ton to 6625 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active styrene contract rose 40 yuan/ton to 6638 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 13 yuan/ton (weakened by 15 yuan/ton). The BZN spread was 127.75 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton), the non - integrated EB device profit was - 198.35 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton (narrowed by 19 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 139,300 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6390 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6325 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 65 yuan/ton (strengthened by 68 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%. The production enterprise inventory was 458,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,200 tons; the trader inventory was 32,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,200 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 16 yuan/ton (strengthened by 12 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. The production enterprise inventory was 533,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the trader inventory was 187,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,100 tons; the port inventory was 68,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 64 yuan to 7358 yuan, the PX CFR rose 5 US dollars to 901 US dollars, and the basis was 24 yuan (up 43 yuan) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was 4 yuan (down 12 yuan). The PX load: China's load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous month; Asia's load was 78.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. In terms of devices, Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, a 260,000 - ton device of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 200,000 - ton device of Idemitsu was restarting. The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of December, an increase of 8,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 361 US dollars (up 7 US dollars), South Korea's PX - MX was 154 US dollars (unchanged), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (down 1 US dollar) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 58 yuan to 5152 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 5050 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (up 6 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was 94 yuan (up 16 yuan). The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 19 was 2.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market rose 16 yuan to 325 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract was unchanged at 3818 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 3653 yuan, the basis was - 8 yuan (up 5 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 73 yuan (down 11 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 72.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on December 24 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 969 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1052 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan. The cost of ethylene was unchanged at 745 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. The port inventory will continue to decline, but there are still pressures in the future due to high imports and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies [3]. - For urea, the market continues to oscillate higher. The demand has improved in the short term, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, currently having a neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended. It is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong domestic supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. - For PX, the load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market performance: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.68%, to 444.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 2.00 yuan/ton, or 0.08%, to 2,480.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 14.00 yuan/ton, or 0.47%, to 3,014.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory data: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.70 million barrels to 6.27 million barrels, a 10.08% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 2.29 million barrels, a 14.25% decline; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 10.38 million barrels, an 8.95% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.10 million barrels to 18.94 million barrels, a 10.00% decline [1]. Methanol - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Hebei decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton respectively, while Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 2,172 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 24 yuan [2]. - Strategy: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port inventory will decline, but there are future pressures. The fundamentals have pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while Hubei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 1,735 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: The market oscillates higher. The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand has improved, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Rubber - Market performance: Bulls believe in factors such as limited production growth due to weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, the seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the off - season demand, and the possible under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.152 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 748,000 tons, a 2.5% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 404,000 tons, a 2.8% increase. The total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 494,200 (+94,000) tons [9][10]. - Strategy: A neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended, and it is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market performance: The PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan to 4,781 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,480 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (+17) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 135 (-7) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77.4%, a 2.1% decline from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decline. The factory inventory was 329,000 tons (-16,000), and the social inventory was 1.057 million tons (-3,000) [12]. - Strategy: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, and in the medium term, shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.46 million tons to 13.93 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products on the demand side was 40.60%, a 1.67% decline [16]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,408 yuan/ton, a 112 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 112 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%, a 0.76% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 17,200 tons to 487,800 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 35,600 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decline [19]. - Strategy: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,278 yuan/ton, a 120 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 120 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%, a 0.31% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 537,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 90,000 tons to 198,300 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 67,500 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decline [21]. - Strategy: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. PX - Market performance: The PX03 contract fell 8 yuan to 7,294 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 901 dollars. The basis was 24 yuan (+43), and the 3 - 5 spread was 16 yuan (-4). The Chinese PX load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period; the Asian load was 78.9%, a 0.4% decline. Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, and some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. In mid - and early December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 283,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons [24]. - Strategy: The load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. PTA - Market performance: The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan to 5,094 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan to 5,015 yuan. The basis was - 19 yuan (-2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 78 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom load decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 2.15 million tons, a 19,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee rose 17 yuan to 309 yuan [26]. - Strategy: The supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Market performance: The EG05 contract rose 195 yuan to 3,818 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 3,573 yuan. The basis was - 13 yuan (-8), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 62 yuan (+19). The ethylene glycol load was 72%, a 2% increase. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure was 12,000 tons on December 23. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a 30,000 - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 995 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1,064 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan [28]. - Strategy: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [4]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended [7]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to bottom out while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [11]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently taken. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is advised, and partial closing of the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profits and high supply. With domestic demand entering the off - season and only some support from exports, the fundamental situation is poor. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term [19]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large room for upward valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [22]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026 may support oil prices. Although the downward space of PE valuation is limited, high warehouse receipts suppress the market. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [25]. - For polypropylene, with expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [28]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips should be watched [31]. - For PTA, the supply has high maintenance in the short term, and demand will decline due to the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations should be watched [34]. - For ethylene glycol, although the domestic supply situation has improved due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue. Attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal caused by further increases in maintenance [36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures on INE closed up 8.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.92% increase, at 440.90 yuan/barrel. China's crude oil weekly data showed that the arrival inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 206.16 million barrels, a 0.14% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 15 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, and in Henan by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, closing at 2156 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 179 yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended [7]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, and in Hubei by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 23 yuan/ton, closing at 1721 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 31 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to bottom out while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [11]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were in an oscillating consolidation. The buying demand for winter storage was a bullish factor. The long - side believed in limited rubber production growth in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases, and improved demand expectations in China, while the short - side cited uncertain macro expectations, off - season demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral approach is currently taken. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is advised, and partial closing of the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 147 yuan, closing at 4738 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 318 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 128 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% month - on - month decrease. Factory inventory was 32.9 million tons (-1.6), and social inventory was 105.7 million tons (-0.3) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has low comprehensive profits and high supply. With domestic demand entering the off - season and only some support from exports, the fundamental situation is poor. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5315 yuan/ton with no change, and the active contract closed at 5425 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6600 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6509 yuan/ton, a 31 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.46 million tons to 13.93 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products decreased by 1.67% to 40.60% [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large room for upward valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [22]. Polyolefin (Polyethylene and Polypropylene) Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 6296 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6300 yuan/ton with no change. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%, a 0.76% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 1.72 million tons to 48.78 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons to 3.56 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% month - on - month decrease [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026 may support oil prices. Although the downward space of PE valuation is limited, high warehouse receipts suppress the market. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [25]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6158 yuan/ton, a 39 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6250 yuan/ton with no change. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%, a 0.31% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.07 million tons to 53.78 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons to 19.83 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons to 6.75 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [28]. Polyester (PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol) PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 44 yuan, closing at 7302 yuan. The CFR price of PX increased by 4 dollars to 896 dollars. The Chinese PX operating rate was 88.1% with no change, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, a 0.4% month - on - month decrease. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days were 28.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 million tons, a 4.8 - million - ton month - on - month increase [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips should be watched [31]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 42 yuan, closing at 5082 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 70 yuan to 4955 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, a 0.5% month - on - month decrease. The downstream operating rate was 91.2% with no change. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 million tons, a 1.9 - million - ton month - on - month decrease [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance in the short term, and demand will decline due to the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations should be watched [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 112 yuan, closing at 3623 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 3563 yuan. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, a 2% month - on - month increase. The port inventory was 71.6 million tons, a 3 - million - ton month - on - month increase [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic supply situation has improved due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue. Attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal caused by further increases in maintenance [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol futures market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The urea futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - The current view on rubber is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. - The PVC fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. - For PTA, the processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, and the inventory accumulation rate at the port may slow down. However, the medium - term supply situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the rebound risk [29]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 4.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.04%, at 439.70 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 38.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%, at 2382.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 20.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.67%, at 2986.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 411.92 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; gasoline inventories increased by 6.40 million barrels to 220.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%; diesel inventories increased by 2.50 million barrels to 116.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.20 million barrels to 21.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.26%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.38 million barrels to 42.57 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 27, in Lunan by 7.5, and in Inner Mongolia by 2.5. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 21 yuan, reported at 2074 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 31. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 30, reported at - 46 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 7 yuan, reported at 1638 yuan, the basis was + 42, and the 1 - 5 spread was + 3, reported at - 65 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and consolidated. The low inventory of exchange - traded RU warehouse receipts was a bullish factor. The bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than the previous week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than the previous week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Both domestic and export shipments slowed down. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 112.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1 tons, an increase of 1.9%; the total social inventory of dark rubber was 73 tons, an increase of 2.4%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%; and the total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.48 (+ 0.98) tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current view is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 52 yuan, reported at 4276 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4300 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was 24 (+ 22) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 870 (0) yuan/ton, the ethylene price was 745 (0) US dollars/ton, and the caustic soda spot price was 710 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the calcium carbide method was 82.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 73.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The in - plant inventory was 32.6 tons (+ 0.3), and the social inventory was 105.9 tons (+ 1.6) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 5265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5428 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton; the basis was 169 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB plant profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.42 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, an increase of 0.10%; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, an increase of 1.70%; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52%; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.93 tons, and the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75 tons, the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 tons, and the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The LL - PP spread was 364 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 80 yuan, reported at 6834 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 US dollars, reported at 836 US dollars. The basis was - 5 yuan (- 44) according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 1 - 3 spread was 18 yuan (+ 10). The PX load in China was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and the Saudi Satorp plant overseas restarted. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 13.9 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of December, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 tons. In terms of valuation cost, the PXN was 273 US dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 7) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 48 yuan, reported at 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan, reported at 4640 yuan. The basis was - 21 yuan (+ 4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (+ 10). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. The downstream load was 91.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The 300,000 - ton filament and 250,000 - ton staple fiber plants of Hengyi were under maintenance, and the 200,000 - ton long - stopped filament plant of Sanfangxiang restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 83%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 67%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 5 was 216.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 18 yuan to 172 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 193 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 83 yuan, reported at 3599 yuan. The East China

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness by observing export decline when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. - For PTA, with the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures on INE closed down 10.30 yuan/barrel, a 2.26% decline, at 446.10 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 58.00 yuan/ton (2.34%) to 2418.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 52.00 yuan/ton (1.70%) to 3014.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a 1.91 - million - barrel draw in arrival inventory to 205.87 million barrels, a 2.03 - million - barrel build in gasoline commercial inventory to 87.33 million barrels, a 1.13 - million - barrel draw in diesel commercial inventory to 90.57 million barrels, and a 0.90 - million - barrel build in total refined oil commercial inventory to 177.90 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high. Currently, wait and see for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The Taicang price dropped by 7, the Lunan price remained stable, the Inner Mongolia price fell by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market dropped by 23 yuan to 2066 yuan/ton, and the basis was +7. The 1 - 5 spread was +11, reported at - 77 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract dropped by 3 yuan to 1643 yuan, the basis was +37, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 4, reported at - 68 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly consolidating. The potential bullish factors include the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and low inventory warrants on the exchange. The bulls are optimistic about the seasonal increase and demand expectations, while the bears are concerned about weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the EUDR postponement. The tire factory operating rate was mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped by 64 yuan to 4367 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4360 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 7 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 287 (+8) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.9% (down 0.3%), with the calcium - carbide method at 82.7% (down 1%) and the ethylene method at 73.4% (up 1.1%). The downstream operating rate was 49.1% (down 0.5%), and both factory and social inventories increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The non - integrated styrene profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton (up 15.5 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 67.29% (down 1.66%), and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.59 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.34% (up 0.10%), with mixed operating rates for PS, EPS, and ABS [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6557 yuan/ton (down 91 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the basis was 78 yuan/ton (strengthened by 41 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 84.12% (down 0.05%). The production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 44.8% (up 0.11%). The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton (widened by 9 yuan/ton) [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6192 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6270 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan/ton), and the basis was 69 yuan/ton (strengthened by 14 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 77.97% (up 0.8%). The production enterprise, trader, and port inventories all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 53.7% (up 0.13%). The LL - PP spread was 365 yuan/ton (narrowed by 17 yuan/ton) [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract dropped by 62 yuan to 6780 yuan, the PX CFR price dropped by 9 dollars to 832 dollars, and the basis was 7 yuan (+26). The 1 - 3 spread was 0 yuan (+36). The Chinese and Asian operating rates both decreased slightly. Some overseas plants restarted, and some domestic PTA plants were under maintenance. The November PX exports from South Korea to China decreased year - on - year, and the inventory increased in October [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped by 50 yuan to 4644 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 20 yuan to 4630 yuan, and the basis was - 26 yuan (+4). The 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (+12). The PTA operating rate remained unchanged, with some domestic plant changes. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The social inventory decreased in November, and the processing fees increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped by 10 yuan to 3691 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 45 yuan to 3654 yuan, and the basis was - 11 yuan (-2). The 1 - 5 spread was - 116 yuan (-8). The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, with some plant restarts and shutdowns. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.6 million tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly. Therefore, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further reduced due to port back - flow and trans - shipment, but the subsequent port pressure remains due to high import arrivals and potential maintenance of port olefin plants. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be in low - level consolidation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. - **Urea**: The market continues to fluctuate higher. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have improved short - term demand, and the overall supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is expected to build a bottom in a fluctuating manner, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is weakly falling. The flood in the main rubber - producing areas of Thailand is receding, and the subsequent bullish factors are decreasing. The inventory of exchange RU is low, and the fundamental driving force is weak. It temporarily follows macro - fluctuations. A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [11][13][14]. - **PVC**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level, and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, but the supply is high, and the demand is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is difficult to digest the excess capacity. In the face of a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [14][16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still ample, and the styrene inventory in ports is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18][19]. - **Polyethylene**: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may have bottomed out the oil price. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21][22]. - **Polypropylene**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and an expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [23][25]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, while the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans and a low load. The PTA processing fee is under pressure, and PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [25][26]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to be stable due to the gradual repair of processing fees, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply is expected to decline in December due to large - scale accidental maintenance, and the import volume will slightly decrease, so the inventory accumulation rate at ports may slow down. However, in the medium - term, the supply is expected to be high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [28][29]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 3.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.73% increase, at 452.60 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.57 million barrels to 427.50 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; SPR replenished by 0.25 million barrels to 411.67 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 4.52 million barrels to 214.42 million barrels, a 2.15% increase; diesel inventories increased by 2.06 million barrels to 114.29 million barrels, a 1.83% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 22.89 million barrels, a 0.09% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.61 million barrels to 43.95 million barrels, a 1.41% increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10, the price in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable, the 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 15 yuan to 2113 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 1. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 96 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20, in Henan by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 1688 yuan, the basis was + 2, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 57 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell weakly. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas receded, and the exchange RU inventory was low. The fundamentals had little driving force and temporarily followed macro - fluctuations. The tire factory operating rate was weak. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than last week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than last week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 110.2 tons, a 2.3 - ton increase, a 2.1% increase [11][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 41 yuan to 4500 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 yuan/ton (down 40), the basis was - 40 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 282 (down 9). The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.2%, a 1.4% increase; the calcium carbide method was 83.6%, a 2.3% increase; the ethylene method was 72.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a 0.4% increase. The factory inventory was 32.3 tons (+ 0.7), and the social inventory was 104.3 tons (+ 1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price increased, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a 1.66% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.59 tons to 16.42 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6776 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6820 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 16 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.93 tons to 45.4 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.33 tons to 4.71 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6359 yuan/ton, a 27 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6410 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a 0.8% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.75 tons to 54.63 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.29 tons to 20.05 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 6.53 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 417 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan narrowing [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 2 yuan to 6870 yuan, the PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 845 dollars, and the basis was - 17 yuan (- 61). The 1 - 3 spread was - 36 yuan (unchanged). The PX load in China was 88.3%, a 1.2% decrease; the Asian load was 78.7%, a 1% decrease. The Sinochem Quanzhou plant was under maintenance, and the overseas South Korea GS 550,000 - ton plant reduced its load. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. In November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 390,000 tons, a 35,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a 48,000 - ton month - on - month increase [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 6 yuan to 4724 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 10 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 32 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan (- 4). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 28 was 2.173 million tons, a 58,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee increased by 9 yuan to 171 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 28 yuan to 194 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 4 yuan to 3826 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 18 yuan to 3822 yuan, the basis was - 7 yuan (- 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 94 yuan (+ 10). The ethylene glycol load was 72.9%, a 0.2% decrease, of which the syngas - based load was 72.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene - based load was 73.1%, a 0.6% decrease. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The import arrival forecast was 161,000 tons, and the East China departure on December 3 was 600 tons. The port inventory was 753,000 tons, a 21,000 - ton increase [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait for signs of OPEC's export price - support intention by observing price drops and export declines [3] - For methanol, with the potential bullish factors from Iranian plant shutdowns materializing, the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term bottom may have emerged. Supply is expected to remain high, limiting further upside. Suggest waiting and observing for single - side trading and looking for positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [6] - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply at a relatively high level and demand improving, the downside is limited. Consider buying on dips [8][10] - For rubber, adopt a neutral stance, suggest waiting and observing or short - term quick - in - and - out trading. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14] - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but short - term valuation is low and costs are rising. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium term [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits [19] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Consider narrowing the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, wait for the change in the cost - side supply - surplus pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25] - For PX, expect a slight inventory build - up in December. Look for buying opportunities on dips [28] - For PTA, with supply and demand stabilizing, look for buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29][30] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. Suggest shorting on rallies [31] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.09%, to 453.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 5.00 yuan/ton, or 0.20%, to 2469.00 yuan/ton. Low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 19.00 yuan/ton, or 0.63%, to 3035.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.30 million barrels to 207.78 million barrels, a 0.14% increase; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 85.30 million barrels, a 0.18% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.16 million barrels to 91.70 million barrels, a 0.17% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 0.01 million barrels to 176.99 million barrels, a 0.00% increase [2] - **Strategy View**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and observe, waiting for signs of OPEC's export price - support intention [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 14, Lunan by 45, Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 - contract on the market fell 4 yuan to 2132 yuan/ton, with the basis at par. The 1 - 5 spread was - 4, reported at - 100 [5] - **Strategy View**: The short - term bottom may have emerged. Supply is expected to remain high, limiting further upside. Suggest waiting and observing for single - side trading and looking for positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong, Henan, and Hubei spot prices remained stable. The 01 - contract on the market rose 12 yuan to 1687 yuan, with the basis at - 17. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4 to - 65 [7] - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply at a relatively high level and demand improving, the downside is limited. Consider buying on dips [8][10] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices declined, with short - term technical breakdown. The flood in the main rubber - producing area in Thailand receded, reducing bullish factors. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low. The fundamental driving force of rubber weakened, temporarily following macro - fluctuations. Tire factory operating rates were weak, with inventory increasing [12][13] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral stance, suggest waiting and observing or short - term quick - in - and - out trading. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4575 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4510 (+20) yuan/ton, with the basis at - 65 (-2) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 278 (+1) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, and the overall operating rate was 80.2%, up 1.4%. Factory and social inventories increased [14] - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but short - term valuation is low and costs are rising. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium term [16] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene was unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene decreased, and the port inventory increased. The three - S weighted operating rate on the demand side increased slightly [18] - **Strategy View**: When the inventory reversal point appears, consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 28 yuan/ton to 6831 yuan/ton. The spot price was unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly. Production enterprise and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [21] - **Strategy View**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Consider narrowing the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 6410 yuan/ton. The spot price was unchanged. The upstream operating rate increased. Production enterprise, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [24] - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand, wait for the change in the cost - side supply - surplus pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 18 yuan to 6912 yuan. PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 851 dollars. The basis was 32 yuan (+38). The 1 - 3 spread was - 32 yuan (-4). The PX load in China and Asia decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had maintenance or load reduction. PTA load increased. November imports from South Korea decreased. Inventory increased at the end of October [27] - **Strategy View**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in December. Look for buying opportunities on dips [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 62 yuan to 4762 yuan. The East China spot price rose 75 yuan to 4710 yuan. The basis was - 33 yuan (+5). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (-10). The PTA load increased. The downstream load increased slightly. Terminal load was mixed. Social inventory decreased in late November. Spot and futures processing fees changed [28] - **Strategy View**: With supply and demand stabilizing, look for buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29][30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 3882 yuan. The East China spot price rose 19 yuan to 3901 yuan. The basis was 4 yuan (unchanged). The 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan (-5). The supply - side load increased, with multiple domestic and overseas plant changes. The downstream load increased slightly. Terminal load was mixed. Import arrivals were expected, and port inventory increased [30] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. Suggest shorting on rallies [31]