文字早评 2026/01/13 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中国机电商会：中欧成功推动电动汽车反补贴案实现"软着陆"；欧委会承诺，符合条件的企业可 用价格承诺替代反补贴征税； 2、力鸿一号完成首次亚轨道飞行试验，其运送的返回式载荷舱顺利着陆完成回收，这是国内商业航天 首次百公里亚轨道伞降回收试验； 3、脑机海河实验室：在航空航天领域开发五代空间站在轨脑机交互系统，完成人类首次"太空脑机接 口实验"； 4、多个有色及贵金属期货品种价格创新高。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.19%/-0.33%/-1.14%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.30%/0.11%/-0.15%/-2.01%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/-0.03%/-0.55%/-3.02%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.06%/-0.14%/-0.11%/-0.33%。 【策略观点】 年初增量资金入场，融资规模大幅走高，市场成交量快速放大。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周一，TL ...

地缘预期向上 基本面上限拉锯 甲醇周报 2026/01/10 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 资料来源：WIND、五矿期货研究中心 因子评估&策略 图2：短期因子评估表 因素 核心变量 方向预测 供给 开工率方面：海外开工季节性放缓，境内开工维持高位 贸易流方面：海外前期高发运开始到港，海外当前发运季节性降低 中性 需求 开工率方面：MTO、烯烃、甲醛开工维持较高，MTO估值较低但无明显驱动 *需要注意的是下游对当前甲醇价格存在犹豫情绪，因而高度受限 中性 库存 港库方面：高位去库放缓，后预计重新累库 厂库方面：维持平淡 中性偏空 成本 煤炭方面：动力煤补库不及预期开始高位下跌 油气方面：维持弱势震荡，预计波幅不大 中性 上周观点 我们认为当前估值较低，且甲醇来年格局边际转好，向下空间已然有限。虽然短 期利空压力仍在，但我们认为伊朗 ...

Market Overview - On October 22, US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 300 points, down 0.71% [2]. - The Nasdaq index fell 0.93%, and the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53% [2]. - The US Tech Giants Index declined by 0.51%, with Amazon and Apple each falling over 1% [4]. Tesla Performance - Tesla's stock fell 0.82% and continued to decline in after-hours trading, dropping over 4% at one point [4]. - For Q3, Tesla reported revenue of $28.1 billion, exceeding the estimate of $26.36 billion, with an operating profit of $1.62 billion, slightly below the forecast of $1.65 billion [4]. - The company's gross margin for Q3 was reported at 18.0% [4]. Commodity Market - In the commodities market, international gold prices showed mixed trends, with London spot gold down 0.65% to $4,097.94 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $4,116.60 per ounce [5]. - Oil prices surged, with Brent crude futures increasing over 4% and WTI crude futures rising more than 3% [8]. - Factors contributing to the rise in oil prices include changes in international trade dynamics, an unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories reported by the EIA, and plans by the US Energy Department to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [8]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.93%, with notable declines in individual stocks such as Pony.ai dropping nearly 7% and Hesai Technology and JinkoSolar each falling over 5% [4]. European Market - European stock indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.74%, France's CAC40 down 0.63%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.93% [4].