硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2026年3月2日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点："弱现实"与"强成本"博弈，盘面偏强震荡 ◼ 微观：铁水产量环比抬升，关注两会前后钢厂对合金的需求变动与供应端的匹配程度。 ◼ 节后双硅开工回升且锰硅大幅累库，基本面供需矛盾加剧；但受南非锰矿供应收紧预期及远期报价上调，叠加内蒙当月电费实际上移与 陕西差别电价政策推进，双硅成本重心显著抬升，驱动盘面震荡走强。当前行情呈现"弱现实与强成本"的博弈，后市核心关注情绪退 潮后终端需求的实际承接力度、北方主产区生产节奏及锰矿到港兑现情况。 | 基本面 | 条目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | | 供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a divergence between futures and spot prices, with futures prices declining while spot prices remain stable [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - From October 30 to November 5, the main futures contract price dropped from 9155 CNY/ton to 9020 CNY/ton, a decrease of 135 CNY/ton [1]. - The national comprehensive price for industrial silicon on November 5 was 9174 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced at 8708 CNY/ton for 553, 9055 CNY/ton for 441, and 9658 CNY/ton for 421 [1][3]. - Regional price variations were noted, with prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan at 8798 CNY/ton, 9753 CNY/ton, and 9950 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic industrial silicon market is facing insufficient support from downstream demand, particularly in the organic silicon sector, which is entering a traditional off-peak season [2]. - Despite attempts by production companies to stabilize prices through production cuts, the price of organic silicon DMC fell by 200 CNY/ton to 11000 CNY/ton [2]. - In the aluminum alloy sector, demand continues to grow due to strong performance in downstream industries like automotive [2]. Group 3: Market Balance and Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is currently in a phase of "weak reality and strong cost" dynamics, with spot prices remaining stable due to production cut expectations and cost support [2]. - Futures prices are fluctuating around the 9000 CNY/ton mark, indicating a cautious balance between demand expectations and cost support [2]. - Future market trends will depend on the extent of production cuts in the southwestern region and the recovery of actual downstream demand [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is currently experiencing a divergence between futures and spot prices, characterized by "futures down, spot steady" dynamics, with the market balancing between weak demand and strong cost support [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon fell from 9155 CNY/ton to 9020 CNY/ton, a decrease of 135 CNY/ton during the week of October 30 to November 5 [1]. - The national comprehensive price for industrial silicon on November 5 was 9174 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced as follows: 553 at 8708 CNY/ton, 441 at 9055 CNY/ton, and 421 at 9658 CNY/ton [1][3]. Regional Analysis - In the Southwest region, particularly in Sichuan and Yunnan, rising electricity prices have led to production cuts, providing price support for industrial silicon [2]. - In contrast, regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have stable production levels, with slight cost increases but overall weak demand limiting price increases [2]. Demand Insights - Demand from the downstream sectors remains insufficient to support industrial silicon prices, particularly in the organic silicon sector, which is entering a traditional off-peak season [2]. - Despite attempts by producers to stabilize prices through production cuts, the price of organic silicon DMC has decreased by 200 CNY/ton to 11000 CNY/ton [2]. - In the polysilicon sector, while prices remain stable and transaction activity has increased, production cut expectations continue to constrain demand for industrial silicon [2]. Freight Costs - The freight cost from Yili to Tianjin Port is 600 CNY/ton, while from Kunming to Huangpu Port it is 350 CNY/ton [5]. Participating Companies - A list of companies involved in the industrial silicon market includes major players from Xinjiang, Fujian, Yunnan, and Sichuan regions, indicating a diverse supply chain [5].