铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME铜收盘价再创历史新高。宏观方面，美国12月ISM制造业指数从48.2小幅 下降至47.9，已连续10个月低于50。新订单已连续第四个月收缩，出口订单仍然疲弱；就业人数连续第 11个月下降，不过降幅有所放缓。库存方面，LME库存下降2775吨至142550吨；Comex库存增加3204吨 至456657吨；SHFE铜仓单增加8507吨至90282吨，BC铜维持1053吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终 端订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。资金仍是短线铜价的主要推手，但也会带来不确定性风险， 操作上维系铜"趋势多头思维"，建议在元旦至春节这段期间多观察，利用宏观或情绪扰动导致的回调机 会分批逢低布局。 镍&不锈钢： （王珩，从业资格号：F3080733；交易咨询资格号：Z0020715） 5日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力2605收于8730元/吨，日内跌幅1.24%，持仓增仓13298手至21.7万手。百川工 业硅现货参考价9603元/吨，较上一交 ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美联储官员就明年降息预期继续产 生较大分歧，但市场关注点在于美联储明年新上任主席能否维系美联储货币政策独立性。国内方面，中 国LPR连续七个月维持不变。消息面，据Mysteel，12月19日，中国铜冶炼厂代表与Antofagasta 敲定 2026年铜精矿长单加工费Benchmark为0美元/吨与0美分/磅。库存方面，LME库存下降2650吨至157750 吨；Comex库存增加4247吨至423556吨；SHFE铜仓单增加2803吨至48542吨，BC铜仓单维持1053吨。 需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。日央行加息市场反馈是"靴子落 地"，并未引起较大波澜，结合美联储降息和购债呵护，宏观维系偏暖氛围，宽松叙事结构下铜保持偏 强走势。基本面方面，低库存与需求韧性仍构成下方支撑，但价格高位或抑制部分实货买盘，且临近年 关，下游需求或进入淡季叙事。策略上建议维持逢低买入思路，但不宜过度追高。 氧化铝&电解铝&铝合金： 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AO26 ...

Group 1: Digital and Technological Innovation - Guian New Area's Sci-Tech Industry Development Company is responsible for the construction and operation of major technological infrastructures like the Guian Supercomputing Center, which has supported over 160 film projects, including "Nezha 2" and "The Wandering Earth 2" [1] - The Guian Supercomputing Center has achieved an average utilization rate of over 80% through partnerships with companies like Shenzhen Ruijun and Huawei, adapting to market demands for shorter rental periods [1] - The company has trained over 500 modeling and animation professionals, indicating a strong focus on talent development in the digital culture industry [1] Group 2: Robotics and Automation - Weimar Technology, located in the Guian Robot Innovation Industry Park, produces industrial robots and core components, with a focus on advanced perception capabilities through its "Aoshi Zhinao" model [2] - The company has a strong R&D team of over 200 members, primarily from prestigious institutions, and plans to complete its Hong Kong IPO by early 2026 [2] - The demand for intelligent manufacturing and robotics in Guizhou is growing, supported by favorable policies and investment from local funds [2] Group 3: Semiconductor and Electronics - Anxin Electronics, based in the Guian Comprehensive Bonded Zone, specializes in IC integrated circuit testing and has over 190 production devices, with products exported to regions like Hong Kong and Singapore [3] - The company benefits from tax exemptions in the bonded zone and lower operational costs, which attract more businesses to the area [3] Group 4: Advanced Materials and Manufacturing - Faraday Magnetic Technology, which relocated from Jiangsu, produces high-performance magnetic products and has established a research center in collaboration with Guizhou University [4] - The company invests over 6% of its annual revenue in R&D, focusing on lightweight sensors for motors used in various applications [4] Group 5: Resource Extraction and Processing - Ziyao Silicon Industry Technology Company utilizes advanced automation in its production line for frac sand, which is in high demand for oil extraction [5] - The company has successfully localized the production technology for frac sand, previously dominated by foreign technology, through partnerships with local universities [5] - Guizhou aims to significantly enhance its technological innovation contribution to economic growth, targeting nearly 30% by 2024 [5]

| 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( *) 买入营业部 | | | 类出管业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-02 | 응률硅亚 | 603260 | 50.41 126.8 | 6391.99 | 有限公司 201 | 是首次公告发展 | Ka | | 2025-12-02 | 导弹性业 | 603260 | 50.41 87 | 4385.67 | 武器和密度高 证券大厦证券管 | 品有限公司出版 | Ka | 12月2日，合盛硅业大宗交易成交213.8万股，成交额1.08亿元，占当日总成交额的11.43%，成交价50.41 元，较市场收盘价55.56元折价9.27%。 ...

在国家 " 双碳 " 目标的引领下，直流冶炼技术以其独特的优势和广阔的发展前 景，正逐渐崭露头角，成为推动行业技术进步的重要方向。为进一步促进业内深化交 流、共谋发展，由中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会指导、北京安泰科信息科技股份有 限公司主承办的 "2025 年矿热炉节能供电（直流电）技术研讨会 " 定于 2025 年 12 月 4 日 -6 日 在 内蒙古自治区呼和浩特 市召开。 通威绿色基材广元有限公司 新吉电（吉林）工程技术有限公司 通化建新科技有限公司 内蒙古鄂尔多斯电力冶金集团股份有限公司 内蒙古瑞濠新材料科技有限公司 陕西高科电力电子有限责任公司 埃肯碳素（中国）有限公司 汉江集团丹江口电化有限责任公司 大连重工机电设备成套有限公司 内蒙古自治区产业技术创新中心 甘肃省机械科学研究院有限责任公司 郑州和胜耐火材料有限公司 北京智冶互联科技有限公司 陕西合元新冶金电炉设备有限公司 湖南华夏特变股份有限公司 中冶赛迪电气技术有限公司 丰镇市兴丰宇铁合金有限责任公司 锦州天亿电容制造有限公司 西安鹏远冶金设备有限公司 广州擎天实业有限公司 江西省瑞金化工机械有限责任公司 新疆中泰特种电力设备有限公司 无锡 ...

在国家"双碳"目标的引领下，直流冶炼技术以其独特的优势和广阔的发展前 景，正逐渐崭露头角，成为推动行业技术进步的重要方向。为进一步促进业内深化 交流、共谋发展，由中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会指导、北京安泰科信息科技股 份有限公司主承办的"2025 年矿热炉节能供电（直流电）技术研讨会"定于 2025 年 12 月 4 日-6 日 在 内蒙古自治区呼和浩特 市 召开。 会议主题 践行节能低碳·促进绿色发展 指导单位： 中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会 主办单位： 北京安泰科信息科技股份有限公司 特邀支持单位： 乌拉特中旗政府 特邀协办单位： 内蒙古纳顺装备工程（集团）有限公司 协办单位： 河北顺天电极有限公司 西冶科技集团股份有限公司 支持单位： 内蒙古通威绿色基材有限公司 承办单位： 北京安泰科信息科技股份有限公司 初步日程 时间地点 报到时间：2025年12月4日 会议时间：2025年12月5-6日 会议地点：内蒙古 ·呼和浩特 会议酒店：巨华国际大酒店 组织单位 联系方式 张 凡 ： 18001036278 马海天： 13683629409 2025年12月4日下午【注册报到】 2025年12月5日上午【 开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but whether they can continue to rise and start the next wave of the market remains to be observed [12]. - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [16]. - For stock indices, a balanced long - position allocation is recommended [20]. - US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [26]. - The bond market is expected to be in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [29]. - For various commodities, different investment suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals, such as short - term bullish or bearish outlooks, and strategies like long or short positions at appropriate times [32][35][39] etc. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut is needed. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to expectations of the Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion and Trump's proposed fiscal expansion. Buying funds entered the market around $4000. Gold is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but the sustainability of the upward trend needs further observation [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Switzerland is close to reaching a deal with the US to reduce its export tariff to 15%. Trump supports the Senate's agreement to end the government shutdown. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the relief of market tightness and the recovery of risk appetite [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was strong driven by consumer stocks. New policies on consumption have been introduced this year, but the sustainability of the traditional consumer stocks' rally remains to be seen. A balanced long - position allocation for stock indices is recommended [17][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Some Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Trump is trying to reduce tariffs on Switzerland and India. The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. The US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [21][23][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of funds. Inflation data has a limited negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [27][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, domestic soybean oil mills' soybean inventory increased, while soybean meal inventory decreased. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report and China's soybean procurement and South American weather [30][32]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Simandou Iron Ore project is about to be put into production. Steel prices are oscillating slightly upward, but there is no obvious trend. The valuation of steel prices is not high, but there is still fundamental pressure. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short - term [33][34][35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan's sugar mills will start crushing on November 15. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi is expected to start on November 15, postponed by 7 days. India allows 150,000 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contracts can be considered [36][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 10, the import market of steam coal had a dull trading performance. Coal prices have risen sharply since November, supported by seasonal demand. However, there is also regulatory pressure above 800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [40][41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Grange's iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. Iron ore prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is moderately high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally in November - December. The valuation space is difficult to open in the short - term [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the East China market is running strongly. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the fourth round of coke price increases is underway. The coking coal market is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term, but the decline in hot - metal production and high downstream inventory may put pressure on the market [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased in October. The oil market rebounded slightly due to the release of the data. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate after a small - scale rebound in November. Attention should be paid to the weather from December to early next year. Opportunities for long positions in the 05 contract and 1 - 5 spread short - positions can be considered [45][46][47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions have different levels of theoretical profits. Corn prices are rising, and starch prices are stable. Enterprises are expected to maintain profitability, and the开机 rate is expected to increase. A band - trading strategy is recommended [48]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are strong. Farmers' willingness to sell is weak, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term and rebound in the long - term. Caution is needed for far - month contracts [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has been slightly reduced. The futures price of the main contract has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a guidance on promoting new - energy consumption and regulation. The polysilicon market is entering a critical point of policy - and fundamental - based games. If the progress of platform companies fails to meet expectations, the spot price may fall. A short - position strategy at high prices can be considered [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A shareholder of Hesheng Silicon Industry plans to reduce its shareholding. With the arrival of the dry season, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. A long - position strategy at low prices can be considered, but profit - taking at high prices is necessary [55][56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount, and the inventory of lead ingots is increasing. The supply and demand of lead are expected to remain strong in the short - term. The industry can consider short - position hedging at high prices [57][58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc concentrate production decreased in November. The LME zinc is at a premium, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The industry can consider short - position hedging at medium - term highs, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [59][60][61]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Sumitomo's nickel - bean production increased. The raw - material price is expected to remain stable and strong. The inventory accumulation of refined nickel is slowing down. Attention can be paid to long - position opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [62][63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng Lithium's PPGS lithium - salt lake project obtained an environmental assessment report. The lithium - carbonate market is in a game between strong current reality and weak future expectations. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, and a short - position strategy at high prices can be considered in the medium - term [64][65][66]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A Congolese mine suspended operations due to a leakage incident. A company applied for a US seabed - mining license. The valuation of an Ecuadorian copper mine is $4.6 billion. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and a long - position strategy can be considered, but large - scale increases are limited [67][68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Two Indian state - owned enterprises bought 5 million barrels of oil from the US and the Middle East. Oil prices are oscillating, and the recovery of market risk appetite provides some support [70][71]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market is relatively strong recently, but the risk of further upward movement has increased as European pulp can now be registered as warehouse receipts [73]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [74][75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is weakly sorted. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. A short - position strategy at rebounds for near - month contracts and a long - position strategy for far - month contracts after price over - decline can be considered [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity - utilization rate of compound fertilizers is stable. Urea prices rebounded due to new export - quota policies and replenishment demand. Urea prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [79][80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Guoen was put into operation. The fundamental upward drive of pure benzene and styrene is limited. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [82][83][84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. The asphalt market is weakly oscillating, and it is waiting for the winter - storage policy [85][86][87]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. Soda - ash prices rose due to cost support and production suspension of some enterprises. In the short - term, the downward space of soda - ash prices depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity commissioning. A bearish view is recommended in the medium - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased. The glass market is bearish due to weak production and sales after price increases last week. It is recommended to wait and see [89][90]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk has no intention to return to the Red Sea in the short - term. The SCFIS (Europe route) index increased. The container - freight - rate market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the spot price and booking situation [91][92].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a divergence between futures and spot prices, with futures prices declining while spot prices remain stable [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - From October 30 to November 5, the main futures contract price dropped from 9155 CNY/ton to 9020 CNY/ton, a decrease of 135 CNY/ton [1]. - The national comprehensive price for industrial silicon on November 5 was 9174 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced at 8708 CNY/ton for 553, 9055 CNY/ton for 441, and 9658 CNY/ton for 421 [1][3]. - Regional price variations were noted, with prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan at 8798 CNY/ton, 9753 CNY/ton, and 9950 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic industrial silicon market is facing insufficient support from downstream demand, particularly in the organic silicon sector, which is entering a traditional off-peak season [2]. - Despite attempts by production companies to stabilize prices through production cuts, the price of organic silicon DMC fell by 200 CNY/ton to 11000 CNY/ton [2]. - In the aluminum alloy sector, demand continues to grow due to strong performance in downstream industries like automotive [2]. Group 3: Market Balance and Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is currently in a phase of "weak reality and strong cost" dynamics, with spot prices remaining stable due to production cut expectations and cost support [2]. - Futures prices are fluctuating around the 9000 CNY/ton mark, indicating a cautious balance between demand expectations and cost support [2]. - Future market trends will depend on the extent of production cuts in the southwestern region and the recovery of actual downstream demand [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of direct current smelting technology in promoting industry technological advancement under the national "dual carbon" goals, highlighting its unique advantages and broad development prospects [1]. Group 1: Conference Details - The "2025 Mineral Thermal Furnace Energy-saving Power Supply (Direct Current) Technology Seminar" is scheduled to take place from December 4 to December 6, 2025, in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia [1][2]. - The theme of the conference is "Practicing Energy Saving and Low Carbon, Promoting Green Development" [2]. - The event is organized by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch and Beijing Antai Technology Information Co., Ltd., with support from various local government and industry entities [2]. Group 2: Agenda and Participation - The preliminary agenda includes registration on the afternoon of December 4, an opening ceremony and technical report session on December 5 morning, followed by a discussion and site visit in the afternoon, and a full-day visit to Inner Mongolia Tongwei Green Materials Co., Ltd. on December 6 [2]. - Participation is free of charge, covering meals, while accommodation costs at the conference hotel are to be borne by attendees [3]. Group 3: Contact Information - Contact persons for the event are Zhang Fan (18001036278) and Ma Haitan (13683629409) [4].