Core Viewpoint - Liu Zhihui emphasizes a rational approach to investment amidst market volatility, focusing on macroeconomic cycles and industry allocation to achieve steady returns [2][3] Investment Philosophy - Liu's investment framework consists of three core elements: understanding macro cycles, assessing odds, and respecting market signals [3] - The investment philosophy includes "Investment Way," "Investment Method," and "Investment Technique," focusing on market trends, macro and industry analysis, and specific trading strategies [4] Multi-Asset Framework - Liu's investment strategy spans fixed income, equities, and convertible bonds, aiming for absolute returns through flexible allocation and odds thinking [5] - In bond investment, Liu adjusts duration and leverage based on macro analysis, credit environment, and market sentiment [6] Stock and Convertible Bond Strategy - Liu captures industry trends and cyclical turning points through sector rotation and concentrated allocation, focusing on both intrinsic value and market pricing signals [6] - For convertible bonds, Liu only allocates when they exhibit characteristics of downside protection and upside potential, guided by macroeconomic fundamentals [6] Recent Market Actions - In response to market adjustments, Liu increased exposure to sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and AI, while also considering undervalued sectors such as machinery and real estate [7] - Liu maintains a neutral stance on the bond market, focusing on short-duration government bonds and high-rated credit bonds due to low yield levels [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the survival rate and performance of "civilian stock gods" transitioning into private equity, highlighting their low overall survival rate and significant performance divergence. Group 1: Survival Rate and Performance - The overall survival rate of civilian stock gods in private equity is low, characterized by clear "polarization" and "high elimination rates" [2] - Civilian stock gods often exhibit flexible strategies and aggressive positions, which can lead to significant gains in bull markets but severe losses in bear markets [3][4] - Notable examples include Liao Maolin, who saw a tenfold increase in value from 2019 to 2021 but suffered substantial losses afterward, and Yun Meng, who lost 81% of his net worth after heavily investing in bank stocks during a downturn [2][4] Group 2: Risk Management and Strategy - Civilian stock gods tend to have strong explosive performance in bull markets but reveal significant risk management shortcomings during bear markets [3][4] - In 2014, the average return for civilian stock gods was 16.32%, outperforming public and brokerage funds, but they faced severe drawdowns during the 2015 stock market crash [3][4] - The performance of civilian stock gods is often tied to their personal experiences rather than formal investment theories, leading to a wide disparity in fund performance [5] Group 3: Growth and Challenges - As some civilian stock gods transitioned to larger private equity firms, they struggled to maintain their previous success due to reduced flexibility and increased complexity in managing larger funds [6] - Despite the low survival rate, some individuals have successfully adapted and continue to thrive in the private equity space, such as Feng Liu and Liang Hong, who have integrated personal investment strategies with institutional capabilities [6][7][8] Group 4: Selection Criteria for Investors - Investors are advised to look for signs of genuine capability in fund managers, such as consistent performance, transparency in holdings, and reasonable fund sizes [9][10] - Key indicators of a fund manager's reliability include significant personal investment in their funds, clear communication, and adherence to their investment capabilities [10]