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大类资产周报:资产配置与金融工程美元弱势,降息在即,全球风险资产上行-20250915
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-09-15 15:17
Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]
【行情异动复盘】期货盯盘神器早盘分享:焦煤跌破前期形成的多头堆积带,红枣出现多个主买资金炸弹,一图了解玻璃、棕榈油、生猪等热门品种出现的关键市场信号。
news flash· 2025-08-01 04:46
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights significant market movements in various commodities, including coking coal, red dates, glass, palm oil, and live pigs, indicating potential investment opportunities and market signals [1][4]. Group 2 - Coking coal has broken below the previously established bullish accumulation zone, suggesting a bearish trend [1]. - The palm oil main contract formed a bullish accumulation zone at 10:55, with prices experiencing fluctuations and rising, and again formed a bullish accumulation zone at 11:25, indicating potential for continued upward momentum in the afternoon [4].
【行情异动复盘】期货盯盘神器早盘分享:甲醇形成空头堆积带,随后价格走低,玻璃出现主买资金炸弹,一图了解菜粕、纯碱等热门品种出现的关键市场信号。
news flash· 2025-06-30 04:45
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that methanol has formed a bearish accumulation zone, leading to a subsequent price decline [1][4] - Glass has shown significant buying activity, referred to as a "main buying fund bomb" [1] - Key market signals for popular varieties such as soybean meal and soda ash have been identified [1] Group 2 - The methanol main contract showed a bearish accumulation zone at 9:50, and has been trading around this zone since then [4] - The trading volume and price distribution parameters are being monitored closely for further insights [3][4]
特朗普持续输出引发波动!黄金大涨后回调震荡!避险驱动情绪后期是否再次出现?交易者应该警惕哪些市场信号?TTPS团队正在直播分析中,立即进入观看!
news flash· 2025-04-24 12:04
特朗普持续输出引发波动!黄金大涨后回调震荡!避险驱动情绪后期是否再次出现?交易者应该警惕哪 些市场信号?TTPS团队正在直播分析中,立即进入观看! 相关链接 黄金技术面分析中 ...