导读：当市场进入低利率时代，当信用扩张时代结束后，债券投资中的交易能力，开始变得更为重要，而这恰恰是汇添富基金陈思行的 能力圈。 15年前入行时，陈思行就选择了打磨交易能力这条投资道路。当大家都通过信用下沉获取"非对称收益"时，陈思行却通过交易能力战胜 市场。或许，她很早就知道投资要尊重常识，信用下沉的红利终将退潮，要聚焦在真正能持续进化并穿越周期的投资框架上。 陈思行的债券投资框架，有几个特点： 1）擅长判断投资者行为和情绪。陈思行的职业生涯从券商自营的投资经理做起，帮助她对各类不同机构投资者的行为都有所理解，也 对盘面交易的信息有比较强的感知。陈思行会通过交易利差来判断投资者情绪。她认为每一个利差，都是一种投资语言。通过跟踪市场 上的所有利差，并进行整体的分析，就能从中理解投资者的情绪。 2）擅长把握不同阶段的主线矛盾。陈思行认为，影响债券投资的变量很多，但每一个阶段市场只有一个主线矛盾，找到主线矛盾是精 细化交易的核心。比如说，一季度市场交易的是降息预期，二季度初交易的是贸易冲突，二季度末又转向交易资金面。把握了主线矛盾 后，就能从繁杂的数据中抽离出来，关注影响这个阶段市场最重要的数据变化。 3）更灵活 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant short-selling activity by hedge funds, with Brent crude short positions reaching their highest level since October of the previous year, indicating a bearish sentiment towards oil prices [3]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have collectively increased their short positions in Brent crude by over 16,000 contracts, bringing the total to 130,000 contracts, the highest in eight months [3]. - WTI crude's short positions have also risen to a three-week high, reflecting a broader trend of bearish bets on oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The anticipated OPEC+ meeting, where discussions about potential production increases are expected, is a key driver behind the surge in short positions. There are rumors of a third significant production increase, which could lead to downward pressure on oil prices [3][4]. - The potential easing of sanctions on Iran could allow Iranian oil back into the market, further increasing supply and contributing to bearish sentiment [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The short-selling trend reflects a short-term bet on OPEC+ production increases and the return of Iranian oil, while also indicating a longer-term market view on the pace of global economic recovery [4]. - If global demand does not keep pace with increased supply, oil prices could face significant downward pressure, but if demand rebounds, the impact of increased supply may be mitigated [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on supply-demand balance and macroeconomic cycles rather than short-term market sentiment, as these factors are critical in determining oil price trends [4]. - Historical patterns suggest that high short positions can lead to price rebounds if production increases do not materialize as expected or if global demand exceeds forecasts [4].