1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Analysis** - **Macro Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, with a short - term downturn. For major global debtors, the expansion of US fiscal spending means the economic aggregate is entering an expansion cycle, but the expansion rhythm is uncertain. If fiscal spending is faster than economic downward pressure, it is "preventive"; otherwise, the risk of a short - term downward cycle increases [2]. - **Price Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and price resilience needs to be eliminated. The "inflation - deflation" relationship between the two major global economies depends on the distribution of the production and consumption systems. In the context of the China - US game, the spill - over effect of US fiscal expansion on China will weaken, promoting the establishment of China's domestic "internal - cycle" debt - consumption system. Before the new cycle starts in October, the "inflation - deflation" contradiction may intensify in the short term [2]. - **Policy Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and there is a policy window period. From the perspective of the US dollar cycle, the liquidity expansion (liabilities) driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle requires corresponding financial market pools (assets). For the US financial sector, the leverage will be released in October, and China's fiscal policy also needs further guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session in October. In September, the Fed's policy easing may face a macro - reality of "lack of assets" or even "asset shocks" [2]. - **Strategy** - **Strategic**: The macro - strategy maintains a positive right - side judgment. Both the US and China have released clear fiscal expansion signals, driving macro - allocation to turn positive. However, the rhythm of policy release is uncertain, causing short - term disturbances. Short - term market adjustments may provide space for medium - term asset allocation [3]. - **Tactical**: In September, maintain a low - risk allocation and hold volatility - hedging positions, actively waiting for the market low point. In the short term, market pressure may continue to flatten the yield curve [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Economic Status: Supply - Driven Improvement in Prosperity - The short - term pressure has eased according to the Huatai Macro Heat Tracking. International trade activities have improved due to tariff relaxation, and short - term production activity repairs have driven the improvement of macro - prosperity. However, the internal consumption demand of major economies is still below the "water level" [7]. Price Factors: Attention to Japan's Inflation Resilience - Prices have stabilized in the short term. The inflation heat value in August was - 0.64, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The US inflation data in August showed certain resilience, but the Fed has downplayed the consideration of inflation in its policy framework, shifting the focus to the labor market. Globally, Japan's inflation resilience is worthy of attention, which may drive its monetary policy to remain relatively tight and put further pressure on Asian currency liquidity [13]. Policy Conditions: Short - Term Pressure May Increase - **External**: US economic policies have shifted from uncertainty to certainty. In September, there is a risk of increased market volatility during the policy transition period. The passage of the "Great Beauty Act" in July means that US fiscal expectations have shifted from contraction to expansion, with uncertainty only in the impact of the spending implementation rhythm on US Treasury supply. The Fed's relatively dovish monetary policy statement in late August and the implementation of a large - bank leverage - increasing policy in late August (effective in October) have increased the demand for US Treasuries in a context of loose Fed liquidity [19]. - **Internal**: The macro - policy has shifted to a self - centered approach, waiting for the implementation of relevant fiscal and monetary policies in October. The second - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - August shows that the monetary policy remains loose, with the focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. However, the central bank has strengthened the policy requirement of "preventing capital idling" in the short term, which may cause short - term disturbances to the capital flow. Considering the external policy transition and the resulting increase in market uncertainty, market volatility may rise in September [19].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ " 牛市中，跟国运绑在一起的宏大叙事，就是市值的星辰大海 ……" " 当下牛市的底层逻辑：资本对百年变局中的地缘政治的博弈能力，对国家应对宏观周期的治理能力， 信心在上升，信任在上升。 " ——刘煜辉 牛市的宏大叙事，正在你眼前发生 国际格局变动、国内经济结构调整，宏观信号与政策导向密集释放，产业链条正经历新一轮的洗牌与重 构。当下，是国运与资本同频共振的时刻，也是少数人提前上车的机会窗口。 你会发现——资金的脚步已经开始迁移，行业的冷热已经开始转换，牛市的脉搏正在加速跳动。 此刻，你正站在新的选择面前：顺着趋势前行，寻找适合自己的投资赛道。新浪财经联合刘煜辉博士， 在当下关键时间点带来一场主题为《牛市信心·赛道锚定》闭门分享会。 8 月 24 日，在上海，听刘博分享与国运同行，解码百年变局中的季度投资策略。 刘煜辉博士，著名经济学家，曾在国家智库中国社会科学院任职23载，教授、博导。在中国宏观经济学 界、政策界以及资本市场享有极高的学术声誉，曾先后担任过华泰证券、广发证券和天风证券的首席经 济学家。 本次活动有哪些亮点？ 为什么值得来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of trading ability in bond investment as the market transitions into a low-interest-rate environment and the era of credit expansion comes to an end [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Framework Characteristics - The investment framework of Chen Sixing is characterized by a strong ability to judge investor behavior and sentiment, utilizing trading spreads to gauge market emotions [3][16]. - Chen identifies a single main contradiction in the market at each stage, which is crucial for refined trading strategies [3][18]. - The framework includes flexible portfolio management, adjusting bond duration exposure based on the characteristics of equity assets [3][35]. Group 2: Career Development and Learning - Over 15 years, Chen has developed her investment philosophy through various roles, learning to balance profit maximization with risk management across different investment types [6][11]. - The transition from proprietary trading to pension fund investment allowed her to establish a macroeconomic cycle and asset allocation system [9][10]. - Joining Huatai Fund introduced the necessity of managing liabilities and liquidity constraints in investment decisions [10][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies - The bond market has shifted from being influenced by macroeconomic data to being driven by micro-level factors such as trading structures and investor behavior [13][14]. - Chen's investment framework has evolved to incorporate a micro-level database for assessing investor sentiment, moving beyond traditional macroeconomic indicators [14][30]. - The identification of the main contradiction in the market is essential for forming effective trading strategies, with a focus on the most impactful data at any given time [19][20][30]. Group 4: Portfolio Management and Risk Control - The management of bond portfolios requires an understanding of the correlation between equity styles and bond performance, leading to differentiated management strategies [32][35]. - Chen emphasizes the importance of adjusting bond positions based on the performance of equity assets, particularly during periods of market volatility [36][37]. - The team at Huatai Fund operates with a specialized division of labor, enhancing collaboration and efficiency in investment strategies [39][41]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The outlook for bond assets remains optimistic, with expectations of continued downward pressure on interest rates, although the absolute returns may be lower due to increased market volatility [44][45]. - The market is currently in a phase of re-evaluating lower funding costs, with future directions uncertain until new signals emerge [45].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant short-selling activity by hedge funds, with Brent crude short positions reaching their highest level since October of the previous year, indicating a bearish sentiment towards oil prices [3]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have collectively increased their short positions in Brent crude by over 16,000 contracts, bringing the total to 130,000 contracts, the highest in eight months [3]. - WTI crude's short positions have also risen to a three-week high, reflecting a broader trend of bearish bets on oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The anticipated OPEC+ meeting, where discussions about potential production increases are expected, is a key driver behind the surge in short positions. There are rumors of a third significant production increase, which could lead to downward pressure on oil prices [3][4]. - The potential easing of sanctions on Iran could allow Iranian oil back into the market, further increasing supply and contributing to bearish sentiment [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The short-selling trend reflects a short-term bet on OPEC+ production increases and the return of Iranian oil, while also indicating a longer-term market view on the pace of global economic recovery [4]. - If global demand does not keep pace with increased supply, oil prices could face significant downward pressure, but if demand rebounds, the impact of increased supply may be mitigated [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on supply-demand balance and macroeconomic cycles rather than short-term market sentiment, as these factors are critical in determining oil price trends [4]. - Historical patterns suggest that high short positions can lead to price rebounds if production increases do not materialize as expected or if global demand exceeds forecasts [4].