Core Insights - By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," Beijing's average daily express delivery volume exceeded 23 million packages, with an annual per capita usage of 387 packages [1] Group 1: Industry Growth - Beijing has established an efficient delivery network covering urban and rural areas, consisting of over 700 postal offices and more than 3,000 express delivery points [1] - The total express delivery volume in Beijing increased from 5.8 billion packages to 8.44 billion packages, reflecting a significant growth [1] - The annual per capita express delivery usage among residents rose from 265 packages to 387 packages, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.5% [1]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's postal industry achieved a total delivery volume of 2,165.1 billion items, marking an 11.8% year-on-year growth. The express delivery volume reached 1,989.5 billion items, with a growth rate of 13.6% [1][2] - The total revenue of the postal industry (excluding direct revenue from postal savings banks) amounted to 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.1% increase compared to the previous year. Express delivery revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, growing by 6.5% [1] Delivery Volume Breakdown - The volume of intercity express deliveries was 1,789.4 billion items, showing a significant increase of 15.0%, accounting for 90% of the total express delivery volume. Intra-city express delivery volume was 157.9 billion items, with a modest growth of 1.0%. International and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan express delivery volume reached 42.2 billion items, growing by 8.8% [1] Regional Performance - The revenue distribution across regions showed that the eastern, central, and western regions accounted for 73.7%, 15.7%, and 10.6% of express delivery revenue, respectively. The volume distribution was 70.5% for the eastern region, 19.9% for the central region, and 9.6% for the western region. Compared to the previous year, the central region's revenue and volume shares increased by 0.8 and 1.2 percentage points, while the western region saw increases of 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points [1] Provincial and City Insights - Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang ranked as the top three provinces in express delivery revenue, while Hebei, Shanxi, Guizhou, and Ningxia experienced growth rates exceeding 25% in delivery volume. At the city level, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen led in express delivery revenue, with Guangzhou, Jinhua (Yiwu), and Shenzhen dominating in processing volume [2] December Performance - In December 2025, the postal industry recorded a delivery volume of 197.7 billion items, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8%. The express delivery volume was 182.1 billion items, with a growth of 2.3%, indicating stable year-end performance [2]

Core Insights - The postal industry in China is projected to handle a total delivery volume of 216.51 billion items by 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] - The express delivery segment is expected to account for 198.95 billion items, with a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [1] - Total revenue for the postal industry is anticipated to reach 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.1% compared to the previous year [1] - Revenue from express delivery services is projected to be 1.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [1] Business Volume Structure - In 2025, the total volume of same-city express deliveries is expected to reach 15.79 billion items, with a growth of 1.0% [1] - The volume of intercity express deliveries is projected to be 178.94 billion items, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 15.0% [1] - International and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan express deliveries are expected to total 4.22 billion items, with a growth of 8.8% [1] Regional Structure - The market share in the central and western regions is expected to increase, with the revenue distribution for express delivery in 2025 being 73.7% for the eastern region, 15.7% for the central region, and 10.6% for the western region [1] - The volume distribution for express delivery is projected to be 70.5% for the eastern region, 19.9% for the central region, and 9.6% for the western region [1] - Compared to the previous year, the central region's revenue share is expected to rise by 0.8 percentage points, and the volume share by 1.2 percentage points; the western region's revenue share is expected to increase by 0.3 percentage points, and the volume share by 0.7 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Shentong Express (002468.SZ) reported significant growth in its express delivery business for December 2025, with revenue reaching 5.836 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.23% [1] - The company completed a business volume of 2.501 billion parcels in December 2025, which is an increase of 11.09% compared to the previous year [1] - The average revenue per parcel for the express delivery service was 2.33 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.35% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Jitu Express (极兔速递-W) has had its profit forecast raised by Shenwan Hongyuan, maintaining an "overweight" rating due to better-than-expected growth in package volume in Southeast Asia and new markets in Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Jitu Express for 2025-2027 are now estimated at $3.87 billion, $6.02 billion, and $8.88 billion respectively, up from previous estimates of $3.68 billion, $5.92 billion, and $8.53 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth rates for the adjusted net profits are projected to be 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 33x, 21x, and 15x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] Group 2: Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the total package volume reached 8.461 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with Southeast Asia contributing 2.436 billion packages (up 73.6%) and China contributing 5.891 billion packages (down 0.4%) [2] - The new market package volume reached 134 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 79.7% [2] Group 3: Southeast Asia Growth - Jitu Express maintained a high growth rate in Southeast Asia, with Q4 2025 package volume growing by 73.6%, and an annual total of 7.66 billion packages, representing a 67.8% increase [3] - The growth is attributed to increased investments by e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia, promotional activities, and the company's cost efficiency, which has enhanced its market share [3] Group 4: New Market Development - In Q4 2025, the new market business volume reached 13 million packages, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%, with an annual total of 40.4 million packages, up 43.6% [4] - The growth is driven by the gradual improvement of the company's express network, which can accommodate more business from e-commerce platforms [4] - In 2025, the company established 9 new transfer centers, added 80 self-owned trunk transport vehicles, and introduced 9 automated sorting lines to enhance operational efficiency and service quality in new markets [4]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China is projected to exceed 200 billion packages by 2025, supporting online retail sales of over 14 trillion yuan [1] - The State Post Bureau reports that by 2025, the postal industry's revenue and delivery volume will reach 1.8 trillion yuan and 216.5 billion packages, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 11.5% respectively [1] - The express delivery revenue and volume are expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan and 199 billion packages, with year-on-year increases of 6.5% and 13.7% [1] Industry Developments - The delivery network has become more comprehensive, with major postal and express hubs established in regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, and Chengdu-Chongqing [1] - Rural express service coverage is continuously improving, and there is a push to enhance international delivery logistics [1] - The application of technologies such as drones, unmanned vehicles, and automated warehouses is accelerating, with over 450 drones in operation, transporting nearly 4 million packages annually [1] Future Projections - The postal express industry is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with delivery volume projected to reach 230 billion packages in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of around 6% [3] - The express delivery volume is anticipated to grow by approximately 8% year-on-year [3] - Both postal industry revenue and express delivery revenue are expected to see steady increases [3]

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express (极兔速递) has shown significant growth in parcel volume, with a notable increase in both overall and regional performance, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts by analysts [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In Q4 2025, J&T Express achieved a total parcel volume of 8.46 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the company surpassed the 30 billion parcel mark for the first time, reaching 30.13 billion parcels, which is a 22.2% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Regional Growth - In Southeast Asia, J&T Express reported a parcel volume of 2.44 billion in Q4 2025, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 73.6% [1] - The new market segment contributed a parcel volume of 134 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 79.7% [1] Group 3: Analyst Revisions - Shenwan Hongyuan has upgraded the profit forecasts for J&T Express for the years 2025 to 2027 due to the strong performance in parcel volume in Q4, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets, which exceeded expectations [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for J&T Express (01519) [2][7] Core Insights - J&T Express continues to experience high growth in Southeast Asia, with a significant increase in package volume, particularly in new markets [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward due to better-than-expected performance in package volumes for Southeast Asia and new markets [7] - The financial outlook shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues increasing from $8.85 billion in 2023 to $19.91 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27.86% [6][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for J&T Express are as follows: - 2023: $8,849 million - 2024: $10,259 million - 2025E: $12,406 million - 2026E: $15,573 million - 2027E: $19,911 million - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: $387 million - 2026E: $602 million - 2027E: $888 million - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 93.01% in 2025, 55.69% in 2026, and 47.47% in 2027 [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express reported strong growth in parcel volume for Q4 and the full year of 2025, driven by robust performance in Southeast Asia and new markets, alongside stable contributions from the Chinese market [1] Group 1: Q4 Performance - In Q4 2025, J&T Express achieved a total parcel volume of 8.46 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with an average daily parcel volume of 92 million pieces [1] - The company’s overall performance in Q4 was supported by strong business growth in Southeast Asia and new markets [1] Group 2: Full Year Performance - For the full year 2025, J&T Express's total parcel volume surpassed 30 billion pieces for the first time, reaching 30.13 billion pieces, which is a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, with an average daily parcel volume of 82.5 million pieces, up 22.6% [1] - The growth in parcel volume for the full year was primarily attributed to the stable contribution from the Chinese market and strong performance in Southeast Asia and new markets [1] Group 3: Southeast Asia and New Markets - In Southeast Asia, J&T Express reported a Q4 parcel volume of 2.44 billion pieces, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 73.6%, with a full year parcel volume of 7.66 billion pieces, up 67.8% [1] - In new markets, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Mexico, Brazil, and Egypt, the company maintained strong growth, achieving a Q4 parcel volume of 130 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%, and a full year volume of 400 million pieces, up 43.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express (极兔速递-W) reported a significant increase in package volume for Q4 2025, reaching 8.461 billion packages, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [1] Group 1: Package Volume Growth - In Q4 2025, the total package volume reached 8.461 billion, with Southeast Asia and new markets experiencing year-on-year growth of 73.6% and 79.7% respectively [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the total package volume amounted to 30.1287 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [1] - The package volume growth for 2025 was driven by Southeast Asia, China, and new markets, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 67.8%, 11.4%, and 43.6% [1]