Core Viewpoint - Debon Holdings (603056) announced its decision to voluntarily delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, effective March 31, 2026, transitioning to the National Equities Exchange and Quotations system for trading [2][3] Group 1: Company Actions - Debon Holdings will terminate its listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and will not enter a delisting transition period, as per the exchange's regulations [2] - The company aims to better align with logistics industry trends and enhance coordination within the JD Logistics ecosystem [3] Group 2: Business Performance - Debon started as a freight business and shifted to express delivery in 2013, focusing on large parcel delivery in 2018, but has faced challenges with low operational efficiency and profitability [2] - JD Logistics announced the acquisition of Debon in 2022, leading to significant management changes with JD executives taking over [2] - In 2025, JD Logistics reported a revenue of 100.9 billion yuan from its express and freight services, marking a 5.7% year-on-year increase [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2][7] Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 49.099 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.9%, while the adjusted net profit was 9.513 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.3% [7] - The company achieved a business volume of 10.558 billion parcels in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, significantly exceeding industry growth rates [7] - ZTO Express emphasizes shareholder returns, committing to a target of at least 50% of adjusted net profit for comprehensive shareholder returns starting in 2026 [7] - The company has completed a share repurchase plan of 2 billion USD and has authorized an additional 1.5 billion USD repurchase plan valid for 24 months [7] - The report has raised profit forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting adjusted net profits of 11.127 billion, 12.604 billion, and 14.106 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16.97%, 13.27%, and 11.92% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2024: 44.281 billion RMB - 2025: 49.099 billion RMB - 2026E: 54.388 billion RMB - 2027E: 59.562 billion RMB - 2028E: 64.532 billion RMB [6][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 10.151 billion RMB - 2025: 9.513 billion RMB - 2026E: 11.127 billion RMB - 2027E: 12.604 billion RMB - 2028E: 14.106 billion RMB [6][8] - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 12x for 2026E, 10x for 2027E, and 9x for 2028E [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2][7] Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 49.099 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.9%, while the adjusted net profit was 9.513 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.3% [7] - The company achieved a business volume of 10.558 billion parcels in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, significantly outpacing industry growth [7] - ZTO Express emphasizes shareholder returns, committing to a target of at least 50% of adjusted net profit for comprehensive shareholder returns starting in 2026 [7] - The company has completed a share repurchase plan of 2 billion USD and has authorized an additional 1.5 billion USD repurchase plan valid for 24 months [7] - The report has raised profit forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting adjusted net profits of 11.127 billion, 12.604 billion, and 14.106 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16.97%, 13.27%, and 11.92% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2024: 44.281 billion RMB - 2025: 49.099 billion RMB - 2026E: 54.388 billion RMB - 2027E: 59.562 billion RMB - 2028E: 64.532 billion RMB [6][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 10.151 billion RMB - 2025: 9.513 billion RMB - 2026E: 11.127 billion RMB - 2027E: 12.604 billion RMB - 2028E: 14.106 billion RMB [6][8] - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 12x for 2026E, 10x for 2027E, and 9x for 2028E [7]

Production Side - In February, the average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces was 79.98%, slightly up but still weak[3] - The operating rates for electric furnaces, rebar, and cement mills were 36.96%, 33.21%, and 19.28%, respectively, all lower than the previous month[3] - Inventory levels for rebar, cold-rolled, hot-rolled, iron ore, and float glass increased, with month-on-month growth rates of 24.59%, 9.23%, 11.37%, 2.44%, and 13.35%[3] Demand Side - In February, the average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 32.84% year-on-year, while land transaction area in 100 cities fell by 0.89%[4] - The average weekly express delivery volume was 3.079 billion pieces, down 24.56% month-on-month, while movie box office revenue increased by 192.32% to 1.476 billion yuan[4] - The average number of domestic flights was 14,855, up 15.27% month-on-month[4] Price Side - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 0.02% month-on-month and 5.03% year-on-year[5] - Chemical product prices increased by 0.78% month-on-month but decreased by 7.25% year-on-year[5] - The price of lithium carbonate surged by 117.95% year-on-year, while the price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon increased by 19.98% year-on-year[6]

Core Insights - The total express delivery revenue in China for the year 2025 reached 1,493.93 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.5% compared to the previous year [1] - In December 2025, the express delivery revenue was 138.87 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.9% [1] Revenue Statistics - Cumulative express delivery revenue for 2025 was 1,493.93 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.5% [1] - December 2025's express delivery revenue was recorded at 138.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7% and a month-on-month growth of 0.9% [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics [1]

Core Viewpoint - YTO Express has released its main operating data for January 2026, indicating the company's performance in the express delivery sector [1] Group 1: Company Data - The announcement includes key operating data for YTO Express's express delivery business for January 2026 [1] - The data presented is unaudited, and investors are advised to be cautious regarding investment risks [1] - The announcement is made by the board of directors of YTO Express, ensuring the content's authenticity and completeness [1]

Core Insights - The overall operation of the transportation economy in 2025 is stable with progress, characterized by growth in transportation production, rapid port throughput growth, and high levels of transportation investment [1] Group 1: Transportation Production - The total operating freight volume is expected to reach 58.7 billion tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - By mode of transport, freight volumes are projected to grow as follows: railways by 2%, highways by 3.4%, waterways by 3.2%, and civil aviation by 13.3% [1] - The express delivery business volume is anticipated to reach 199 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [1] Group 2: Port Throughput - The total port cargo throughput is expected to reach 1.834 billion tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [1] - Domestic and foreign trade throughput is projected to grow by 4% and 4.7% respectively [1] - Container throughput is expected to reach 35 million TEUs, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, where domestic and foreign trade container throughput is expected to grow by 2.4% and 9.8% respectively [1] Group 3: Cross-Regional Personnel Flow - The cross-regional personnel flow is projected to reach 66.86 billion person-times in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - By mode of transport, railway and civil aviation passenger volumes are expected to grow by 6.7% and 5.5% respectively, while highway personnel flow is projected to increase by 3.3%, and waterway passenger volume is expected to remain stable [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing high oil tanker rates and improving bulk freight rates, while the express delivery industry is expected to see a growth rate of 13.6% year-on-year in 2025 [1][6][19] Shipping - Oil tanker rates remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the market sentiment showing signs of volatility [6][12] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of improvement, with increased inquiries from Australian miners and rising grain prices from South America [14][15] - Key stocks to focus on include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development, and Pacific Shipping [6][15] Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a slight increase in truck traffic, with 56.12 million vehicles recorded, a 1.87% increase week-on-week, but a 1.6% decrease year-on-year [16][17] - Port throughput reached 261.318 million tons, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 7.5% [16][17] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, which is seen as a stable cash flow asset with low current valuations [17] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a total volume of 199 billion items in 2025, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, with December showing a 2.3% increase [18][19] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express showing potential for profit growth in 2026 [19] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [19] Aviation - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase due to the Spring Festival timing, with passenger numbers showing a 9.9% year-on-year decrease [20][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026 [21] - Key metrics to monitor include passenger volume and ticket pricing trends during the Spring Festival [21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in air freight prices, with a recent decrease of 2% week-on-week but a 7.4% increase year-on-year [22]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's postal industry achieved a total delivery volume of 2,165.1 billion items, marking an 11.8% year-on-year growth. The express delivery volume reached 1,989.5 billion items, with a growth rate of 13.6% [1][2] - The total revenue of the postal industry (excluding direct revenue from postal savings banks) amounted to 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.1% increase compared to the previous year. Express delivery revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, growing by 6.5% [1] Delivery Volume Breakdown - The volume of intercity express deliveries was 1,789.4 billion items, showing a significant increase of 15.0%, accounting for 90% of the total express delivery volume. Intra-city express delivery volume was 157.9 billion items, with a modest growth of 1.0%. International and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan express delivery volume reached 42.2 billion items, growing by 8.8% [1] Regional Performance - The revenue distribution across regions showed that the eastern, central, and western regions accounted for 73.7%, 15.7%, and 10.6% of express delivery revenue, respectively. The volume distribution was 70.5% for the eastern region, 19.9% for the central region, and 9.6% for the western region. Compared to the previous year, the central region's revenue and volume shares increased by 0.8 and 1.2 percentage points, while the western region saw increases of 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points [1] Provincial and City Insights - Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang ranked as the top three provinces in express delivery revenue, while Hebei, Shanxi, Guizhou, and Ningxia experienced growth rates exceeding 25% in delivery volume. At the city level, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen led in express delivery revenue, with Guangzhou, Jinhua (Yiwu), and Shenzhen dominating in processing volume [2] December Performance - In December 2025, the postal industry recorded a delivery volume of 197.7 billion items, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8%. The express delivery volume was 182.1 billion items, with a growth of 2.3%, indicating stable year-end performance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the postal industry in China is projected to experience significant growth in delivery volume and revenue by 2025, particularly in the express delivery segment [1][2] - By 2025, the total delivery volume in the postal industry is expected to reach 216.51 billion items, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with express delivery volume reaching 198.95 billion items, a growth of 13.6% [1] - The total business revenue of the postal industry (excluding direct revenue from postal savings banks) is anticipated to reach 1.8 trillion yuan, marking a 6.1% increase year-on-year, while express delivery revenue is projected to hit 1.5 trillion yuan, growing by 6.5% [1] Group 2 - In December, the postal industry recorded a delivery volume of 19.77 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with express delivery volume at 18.21 billion items, up by 2.3% [1] - The business revenue for the postal industry in December was 163 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.6% year-on-year growth, while express delivery revenue was 138.87 billion yuan, increasing by 0.7% [1] - In terms of business types for 2025, same-city express delivery is expected to reach 15.79 billion items (up 1.0%), while intercity express delivery is projected at 178.94 billion items (up 15.0%), and international/Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan express delivery is expected to reach 4.22 billion items (up 8.8%) [1] Group 3 - The articles also highlight a decline in traditional postal services, with letter business expected to total 68 million items in 2025, down 31.0%, and package business projected at 3.0537 million items, down 2.0% [2] - Newspaper business is anticipated to decline to 16.25 billion copies (down 4.2%), while magazine business is expected to reach 590 million copies (down 6.5%) [2] - The remittance business is projected to total 2.026 million transactions, reflecting a significant decline of 26.0% [2]