证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 03 月 03 日 生产端看，开工率、产能利用率边际降温，工业品库存抬升。开工率方 面，2 月，247 家高炉开工率均值 79.98%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉 开工率、螺纹钢开工率、水泥磨机运转率分别为 36.96%、33.21%、 19.28，低于上月均值。化工品方面，石油沥青开工率均值、PTA 开工率 均值分别为 22.53%、75.58%，均低于上月；纯碱、PVC、分别为 80.48%、84.49%，均较上月略微提升。库存方面，螺纹钢、冷轧、热 卷、铁矿石、浮法玻璃库存较上月抬升，环比增速分别为 24.59%、 9.23%、11.37%、2.44%、13.35%；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回 落，环比增速为-6.24%、-30.05%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略 上升，录得 77.20%；电炉产能利用率为 36.34%，较上期大幅下降；水泥 熟料能利用率较上月下滑，录得 38.61%；浮法玻璃产能利用率下降，录 得 75.35%。 需求端看，地产成交面积同环比负增，地产销售较弱；消费方面，受春节 假期影响，居民出行结构阶段性切换，快递揽收量下降，电影票房 ...

近一年全国快递业务收入当期值及同比增长统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 2025年1-12月，全国快递业务收入累计值为14939.3亿元，累计增长6.5%；2025年12月，全国快递业务 收入当期值为1388.7亿元，同比增长0.7%，环比增长0.9%。 2020-2025年全国快递业务收入统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国快递行业市场竞争态势及发展趋向分析报告》 ...

证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临2026-011 圆通速递股份有限公司 2026年1月快递业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事局及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 圆通速递股份有限公司2026年1月快递业务主要经营数据如下： 2026年2月14日 ■ 上述数据未经审计，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 特此公告。 圆通速递股份有限公司 董事局 ...

Core Insights - The overall operation of the transportation economy in 2025 is stable with progress, characterized by growth in transportation production, rapid port throughput growth, and high levels of transportation investment [1] Group 1: Transportation Production - The total operating freight volume is expected to reach 58.7 billion tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - By mode of transport, freight volumes are projected to grow as follows: railways by 2%, highways by 3.4%, waterways by 3.2%, and civil aviation by 13.3% [1] - The express delivery business volume is anticipated to reach 199 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [1] Group 2: Port Throughput - The total port cargo throughput is expected to reach 1.834 billion tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [1] - Domestic and foreign trade throughput is projected to grow by 4% and 4.7% respectively [1] - Container throughput is expected to reach 35 million TEUs, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, where domestic and foreign trade container throughput is expected to grow by 2.4% and 9.8% respectively [1] Group 3: Cross-Regional Personnel Flow - The cross-regional personnel flow is projected to reach 66.86 billion person-times in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - By mode of transport, railway and civil aviation passenger volumes are expected to grow by 6.7% and 5.5% respectively, while highway personnel flow is projected to increase by 3.3%, and waterway passenger volume is expected to remain stable [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing high oil tanker rates and improving bulk freight rates, while the express delivery industry is expected to see a growth rate of 13.6% year-on-year in 2025 [1][6][19] Shipping - Oil tanker rates remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the market sentiment showing signs of volatility [6][12] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of improvement, with increased inquiries from Australian miners and rising grain prices from South America [14][15] - Key stocks to focus on include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development, and Pacific Shipping [6][15] Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a slight increase in truck traffic, with 56.12 million vehicles recorded, a 1.87% increase week-on-week, but a 1.6% decrease year-on-year [16][17] - Port throughput reached 261.318 million tons, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 7.5% [16][17] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, which is seen as a stable cash flow asset with low current valuations [17] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a total volume of 199 billion items in 2025, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, with December showing a 2.3% increase [18][19] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express showing potential for profit growth in 2026 [19] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [19] Aviation - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase due to the Spring Festival timing, with passenger numbers showing a 9.9% year-on-year decrease [20][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026 [21] - Key metrics to monitor include passenger volume and ticket pricing trends during the Spring Festival [21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in air freight prices, with a recent decrease of 2% week-on-week but a 7.4% increase year-on-year [22]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's postal industry achieved a total delivery volume of 2,165.1 billion items, marking an 11.8% year-on-year growth. The express delivery volume reached 1,989.5 billion items, with a growth rate of 13.6% [1][2] - The total revenue of the postal industry (excluding direct revenue from postal savings banks) amounted to 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.1% increase compared to the previous year. Express delivery revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, growing by 6.5% [1] Delivery Volume Breakdown - The volume of intercity express deliveries was 1,789.4 billion items, showing a significant increase of 15.0%, accounting for 90% of the total express delivery volume. Intra-city express delivery volume was 157.9 billion items, with a modest growth of 1.0%. International and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan express delivery volume reached 42.2 billion items, growing by 8.8% [1] Regional Performance - The revenue distribution across regions showed that the eastern, central, and western regions accounted for 73.7%, 15.7%, and 10.6% of express delivery revenue, respectively. The volume distribution was 70.5% for the eastern region, 19.9% for the central region, and 9.6% for the western region. Compared to the previous year, the central region's revenue and volume shares increased by 0.8 and 1.2 percentage points, while the western region saw increases of 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points [1] Provincial and City Insights - Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang ranked as the top three provinces in express delivery revenue, while Hebei, Shanxi, Guizhou, and Ningxia experienced growth rates exceeding 25% in delivery volume. At the city level, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen led in express delivery revenue, with Guangzhou, Jinhua (Yiwu), and Shenzhen dominating in processing volume [2] December Performance - In December 2025, the postal industry recorded a delivery volume of 197.7 billion items, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8%. The express delivery volume was 182.1 billion items, with a growth of 2.3%, indicating stable year-end performance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the postal industry in China is projected to experience significant growth in delivery volume and revenue by 2025, particularly in the express delivery segment [1][2] - By 2025, the total delivery volume in the postal industry is expected to reach 216.51 billion items, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with express delivery volume reaching 198.95 billion items, a growth of 13.6% [1] - The total business revenue of the postal industry (excluding direct revenue from postal savings banks) is anticipated to reach 1.8 trillion yuan, marking a 6.1% increase year-on-year, while express delivery revenue is projected to hit 1.5 trillion yuan, growing by 6.5% [1] Group 2 - In December, the postal industry recorded a delivery volume of 19.77 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with express delivery volume at 18.21 billion items, up by 2.3% [1] - The business revenue for the postal industry in December was 163 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.6% year-on-year growth, while express delivery revenue was 138.87 billion yuan, increasing by 0.7% [1] - In terms of business types for 2025, same-city express delivery is expected to reach 15.79 billion items (up 1.0%), while intercity express delivery is projected at 178.94 billion items (up 15.0%), and international/Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan express delivery is expected to reach 4.22 billion items (up 8.8%) [1] Group 3 - The articles also highlight a decline in traditional postal services, with letter business expected to total 68 million items in 2025, down 31.0%, and package business projected at 3.0537 million items, down 2.0% [2] - Newspaper business is anticipated to decline to 16.25 billion copies (down 4.2%), while magazine business is expected to reach 590 million copies (down 6.5%) [2] - The remittance business is projected to total 2.026 million transactions, reflecting a significant decline of 26.0% [2]

Core Insights - The postal industry in China is projected to handle a total of 216.51 billion items in 2025, marking an 11.8% increase year-on-year. The express delivery segment is expected to account for 198.95 billion items, reflecting a 13.6% growth [1][3]. Revenue and Business Volume - The total revenue for the postal industry (excluding direct income from postal savings banks) is anticipated to reach 1.8 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a 6.1% increase compared to the previous year. The express delivery revenue is projected to be 1.5 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.5% [1][8]. - In December 2025, the postal industry is expected to generate 163 billion yuan in revenue, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, while express delivery revenue is projected to be 138.87 billion yuan, up by 0.7% [1][8]. Business Type Breakdown - In 2025, the breakdown of express delivery business volume is as follows: same-city deliveries will account for 15.79 billion items (1.0% growth), intercity deliveries will reach 178.94 billion items (15.0% growth), and international/Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan deliveries will total 4.22 billion items (8.8% growth) [1][2][3]. Regional Performance - The revenue distribution for express delivery in 2025 is projected to be 73.7% from the eastern region, 15.7% from the central region, and 10.6% from the western region. The volume distribution is expected to be 70.5%, 19.9%, and 9.6% respectively [5]. - Compared to the previous year, the eastern region's revenue share is expected to decline by 1.1 percentage points, while the central and western regions are expected to see increases of 0.8 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively [5]. Market Concentration - The concentration index (CR8) for express and parcel service brands is projected to be 86.8 in 2025, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 from the previous year [7]. Monthly Performance - In December 2025, the postal industry is expected to handle 19.77 billion items, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with express delivery accounting for 18.21 billion items (2.3% growth) [1][8]. Specific Business Metrics - The letter business is projected to decline to 68 million items in 2025, a 31.0% decrease, while parcel business is expected to reach 30.54 million items, down by 2.0% [2]. - The newspaper and magazine businesses are also expected to see declines, with newspaper volume down by 4.2% and magazine volume down by 6.5% [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that YTO Express has completed a share reduction plan by its major shareholder, Hangzhou Haoyue Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., which involved transferring 68,450,994 shares, accounting for 2% of the company's total share capital [2][3]. Group 2 - Prior to the reduction plan, Hangzhou Haoyue held 310,244,613 shares, representing 9.06% of the total share capital of YTO Express [2]. - The share reduction was executed through block trading from November 7, 2025, to January 19, 2026, in accordance with the previously disclosed plan [3]. - The company confirmed that the actual reduction complied with relevant laws and regulations, and the execution of the plan was consistent with prior disclosures [3].

Core Viewpoint - China Post Group aims to achieve revenue of 677 billion yuan and profit of 76 billion yuan by 2025, exceeding budget progress by 5.8% and 32.8% respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue target for 2025 is set at 677 billion yuan, which is 5.8% above budget expectations [1] - Profit target for 2025 is set at 76 billion yuan, exceeding budget expectations by 32.8% [1] Group 2: Express Delivery Business - By 2025, the business volume for China Post is expected to reach nearly 20 billion packages, with express delivery to villages projected at 6.8 billion packages [1] - The average cost per package is expected to narrow the gap with the industry from 3.18 yuan to 0.1 yuan, resulting in a cumulative cost reduction of 57.7 billion yuan [1] - Daily processing capacity for deliveries is anticipated to increase to 15.5 million packages [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Operations - The fleet of postal aircraft is set to expand to 42 planes, with the launch of 36 international postal routes to Europe and Southeast Asia, 16 China-Europe freight train routes, and 25 maritime routes [1] - Construction of 20 overseas warehouses is planned to enhance logistics capabilities [1] - Nearly 2,500 unmanned vehicles and over 1,200 unmanned delivery stations are being deployed to innovate in last-mile delivery [1]