针对提振消费、扩大内需，人民银行货币政策司司长谢光启日前表示，下阶段，人民银行将继续实施好 适度宽松的货币政策，为提振消费、扩大内需创造适宜的货币金融环境，在此基础上，进一步发挥好货 币信贷政策的结构引导功能，不断提升金融支持消费的适配性、有效性。 1月19日起，人民银行正式下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点。下调后，3个月、6个月和1年期支农 支小再贷款利率分别为0.95%、1.15%和1.25%，再贴现利率为1.5%，抵押补充贷款利率为1.75%，专项 结构性货币政策工具利率为1.25%。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬指出，一季度是银行信贷投放高峰，在2026年初及时推出一系列结构性 工具改革举措，有利于降低银行负债成本，提高结构性工具的吸引力，在保证银行息差的同时，增强对 重点领域信贷投放的积极性。 将与财政贴息、担保和风险成本分担等财政政策协同配合 人民银行副行长邹澜日前表示，还将继续加大流动性投放力度，灵活搭配公开市场操作各项工具，保持 流动性充裕，引导隔夜利率在政策利率水平附近运行。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析，一季度是银行信贷投放高峰，在2026年初及时推出一系列结构性 工具改革举措， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the central bank may focus on structural monetary policy, while aggregate tools still need to be eased. The PBoC will implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy and maintain relatively accommodative financing conditions [2][3]. - Weak financing demand, high real interest rates, and monetary - fiscal coordination require aggregate tools to play a role, and constraints from banks' net interest margins and Fed policies may ease. It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 interest rate cuts (10 - 20BP) and a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 25 - 50BP (the PBoC's resumption of government bond trading has reduced the probability and magnitude of an RRR cut) [2][3]. - The PBoC's bond purchases may cap the upper limit of bond market interest rates, and the implementation of aggregate tools is likely to drive the bond market higher [2][3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 The Economy Requires a Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy - Fundamental data still requires further recovery, and financing demand remains weak. In October 2025, the Manufacturing PMI, Manufacturing PMI Production Index, and Manufacturing PMI New Orders Index were below the 50 - point threshold and declined from September. The year - on - year growth of total loans of financial institutions in September 2025 decelerated, suggesting that overall financing demand is subdued [13]. - "Anti–involution" measures and holiday - driven consumption supported a month - on - month increase of October's inflation, but overall price levels are expected to recover moderately. PPI negative growth has narrowed, and CPI and core CPI in October grew year - on - year, likely boosted by holiday spending [14]. 3.2 Real Interest Rates Remain Relatively High - China's real interest rates remain elevated, with the real rate as of September at 2.16%, higher than the U.S. level of 1.16%. Low inflation has kept real interest rates high, discouraging corporate investment and household consumption. In 2026, monetary policy may continue to lower real interest rates through further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts [21]. 3.3 Monetary Policy Needs to Coordinate with Proactive Fiscal Policy - In 2026, central - government leveraging will continue to require relatively low financing costs. The central government's leverage ratio has risen notably in recent years but remains low relative to households. Both central and local government bond issuance have shown an upward trend, and this year's deficit - to - GDP ratio target has been raised to 4%. Fiscal expansion requires monetary policy to maintain low financing costs and avoid crowding - out effects [25]. - The recommendations for the Fifteenth Five - Year Plan call for strengthening coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, including raising the proportion of central fiscal expenditure and enhancing fiscal - monetary coordination [26]. 3.4 Focus on Structural Monetary Policy In 2026 - In 2026, structural monetary policy tools may still take precedence. Given the structural imbalances in the economy, these tools can provide targeted support to major strategies, priority areas, and weak links [30]. - The recovery of banks' net interest margins and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will help expand the room for China's aggregate monetary policy tools. Deposit rate reductions have alleviated pressure on banks' funding costs, and the constraints from the exchange rate and the China - US interest rate spread on further rate cuts have weakened [31]. - Regarding aggregate monetary policy tools, it is expected that there will be 1 - 2 additional rate cuts of about 10 - 20 basis points in 2026, and the probability and magnitude of RRR cuts may decline, likely in the range of 25 - 50 basis points [37]. 3.5 The PBoC's CGB Purchases May Support A Steeper Yield Curve - After the PBoC initiated government bond purchases, the probability of a steeper yield curve has increased. In 2024, the PBOC's bond purchases concentrated in short - term bonds, driving a decline in short - end yields and steepening the curve. In 2025, the strongest net buying pressure was still in bonds with maturities within three years, so the likelihood of further curve steepening remains high [40].