中国成品油周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 供应端，主营炼厂开工持稳，本周无炼厂新开停工变化。山东地炼开工平稳，部分炼厂二次装置负荷调整。主营汽柴产量维稳，地炼汽柴产量 下行。柴汽比上行0.01至1.49。需求端，本周山东炼厂汽柴周均产销率均持续回升但仍未达产销平衡。汽柴价格均跌，市场中下游采购积极性提 升，市场情绪好转，汽柴车单成交量上行但船单成交有限。库存，商业库存汽油累库，柴油环比持平。汽油1083万吨，环比+9万吨（+0.8%）； 柴油维稳在1239万吨。地炼库存，原油配额下发后地炼开工高位维持，同时本周由于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the US-Ukraine negotiations and the situation in Venezuela, are influencing oil prices, leading to a downward trend in crude oil prices despite some short-term rebounds [1][3][4] - The average price of reference oil as of December 18 is $59.18 per barrel, with expectations for domestic gasoline and diesel prices to decrease by 160 yuan per ton, with the next price adjustment window on December 22 [1][3] - The overall market sentiment for gasoline and diesel is weak, with low trading volumes and cautious attitudes from market participants, leading to a lack of significant demand despite the upcoming New Year holiday [3][4] Group 2 - The international oil prices are expected to show a pattern of rising initially and then declining, with a high likelihood of a "three consecutive declines" in retail prices [1][3] - Supply pressures are evident, with domestic refined oil production expected to increase slightly, while demand remains weak, particularly for diesel due to low outdoor needs in colder weather [3][4] - The overall liquidity in the refined oil market is diminishing, and prices are anticipated to continue a weak downward trend, with potential for minor rebounds aligned with crude oil price fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market overview: Supply side - Main refineries' operation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points, and independent refineries' by 0.4 percentage points. Main refineries' gasoline and diesel production rose this week, and local refineries' slightly increased. The diesel - gasoline ratio remained stable at 1.32. Demand side - Market procurement sentiment was cautious, gasoline vehicle single - deal demand was average, ship - deal improved slightly but still did not reach production - sales balance; diesel production - sales declined. Inventory - Commercial gasoline and diesel inventories decreased this week. Gasoline was 10.8 million tons, down 220,000 tons (-2.0%) week - on - week; diesel was 14.02 million tons, down 130,000 tons (-0.9%) week - on - week. Local refineries' gasoline and diesel inventories increased, while social inventories decreased [6]. - Future outlook: Supply side - Planned operating units are mainly for diesel, combined with some refineries' temporary production cuts, so gasoline output is expected to decline and diesel to increase. Demand side - Gasoline is supported by summer travel but traders expect demand to weaken, with middle and lower reaches purchasing on - demand; diesel demand is expected to improve marginally due to the start of fishing in the East China Sea and less rainfall, but high crack spreads limit real - demand improvement. Price - The cost is affected by the expectation of eased US - Russia relations, reducing geopolitical risk premium. Gasoline wholesale price may decline due to high - price - suppressed transactions, while diesel may stop falling and stabilize. Retail profit is expected to widen slightly as the decline in wholesale price is deeper. Inventory - Gasoline inventory may continue to accumulate due to low ship - deals and weak vehicle - deals, and diesel still has the risk of inventory accumulation despite the start of "Golden September and Silver October" stocking [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - Gasoline market price: On August 14, 2025, the national average was 7,892 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan from the previous day, 51 yuan week - on - week, 77 yuan month - on - month, and 823 yuan year - on - year. Different regions showed varying degrees of decline [13]. - Diesel market price: On August 14, 2025, the national average was 6,749 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day, 38 yuan week - on - week, 120 yuan month - on - month, and 544 yuan year - on - year [13]. 3.2 Profit - Main refineries' refining profit was 833 yuan/ton on August 15, 2025, down 106 yuan week - on - week, up 124 yuan month - on - month, and up 560 yuan year - on - year [17]. - Independent refineries' refining profit was 309 yuan/ton on August 15, 2025, up 85 yuan week - on - week, up 131 yuan month - on - month, and up 102 yuan year - on - year [17]. - Shandong local refineries' refining profit was 367 yuan/ton on August 15, 2025, up 136 yuan week - on - week, up 37 yuan month - on - month, and down 37 yuan year - on - year [17]. 3.3 Supply -开工 - China's refinery operation rate was 72.2% on August 15, 2025, up 0.3 percentage points week - on - week, 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, and up 3.1 percentage points year - on - year. Main refineries' operation rate was 82.7%, up 0.3 percentage points week - on - week; independent refineries' was 56.6%, up 0.4 percentage points week - on - week; Shandong local refineries' was 47.5%, up 0.7 percentage points week - on - week [31]. - China's crude oil processing volume was 14.49 million tons on August 15, 2025, up 60,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons month - on - month, and up 510,000 tons year - on - year [31]. 3.4 Supply - Maintenance Plan - As of August 15, 2025, the total maintenance capacity was 59.2 million tons/year, down 11 million tons/year month - on - month, with Yanshan Petrochemical's maintenance completed [39]. 3.5 Supply - Output - Gasoline output in China was 3.02 million tons on August 15, 2025, up 10,000 tons week - on - week, 20,000 tons month - on - month, and down 180,000 tons year - on - year. Diesel output was 3.98 million tons, up 20,000 tons week - on - week, 40,000 tons month - on - month, and up 110,000 tons year - on - year [41]. - The diesel - gasoline ratio remained stable at 1.32 [41]. 3.6 Sales Volume - Shandong refineries' average weekly production - sales ratio: Gasoline production - sales was 95%, down 5% week - on - week; diesel production - sales declined 3% to 97% [53]. 3.7 Inventory - Gasoline commercial inventory was 10.8 million tons on August 15, 2025, down 220,000 tons (-2.0%) week - on - week. Diesel commercial inventory was 14.02 million tons, down 130,000 tons (-0.9%) week - on - week [79]. - Local refineries' gasoline and diesel inventories increased, while social inventories decreased [6].