Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is in a pattern of high inventory and oversupply, with nickel prices expected to remain in low - level oscillations. A significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter may lead to a nickel price rebound [1][2]. - The stainless - steel market shows weak demand recovery and loose cost support, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, a - 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,448 (+577) lots, and the open interest was 115,164 (-3296) lots. The price fluctuated within a range of about 1,390 yuan, with a significant narrowing compared to previous days. The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 1,977 tons to 32,929 tons, and the LME nickel inventory, although unchanged at 252,750 tons, had a cumulative increase of 20,300 tons in the past month and an 8.79% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is a gap between supply and demand, and market sentiment is cautious. In the Philippines, increased rainfall and the typhoon "Seagull" may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Due to the large price drop, spot trading was good, and the spot premium of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,555 yuan/ton and closed at 12,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 90,380 (-21,042) lots, and the open interest was 74,412 (-4,171) lots. Affected by Shanghai nickel and the black - metal sector, the price showed a weak oscillation, with a fluctuation range of about 100 yuan, further narrowing from the previous day [2][3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism intensified, spot prices were generally lowered, but trading remained weak. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 919.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Core Viewpoint - The manganese silicon futures market is under pressure due to weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices, with the main contract closing at 5668 yuan/ton, down 3.21% from the previous trading day [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Manganese silicon futures experienced significant volatility, initially rising due to a strike in South Africa, but prices quickly fell after the strike was resolved with a new 51 billion rand guarantee approved by South African ministers [1] - Supply expectations for manganese silicon raw materials are increasing, with South32 planning to resume sales from its GEMCO manganese mine in June, gradually restoring shipments by 2026 [1] - Domestic port inventories of manganese ore have increased by 20% from low levels, while overseas mine prices remain weak, leading to a lack of upward momentum in manganese ore prices [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - Manganese silicon production in major producing areas saw a significant decline in early May, but the rate of decrease has slowed recently, with weekly production reaching 165,200 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week [2] - Despite production cuts by manufacturers, the overall supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist, with independent silicon manganese producers reducing output by nearly 20% since late February due to losses [2] - High inventory levels persist, with independent silicon manganese producers' inventories increasing by 70% from low levels, indicating that production cuts have not improved the supply-demand situation [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for manganese silicon prices is weak, with high inventory levels and limited demand growth expected, particularly as downstream steel demand enters a seasonal lull [3] - The supply of manganese silicon may continue to increase due to profit-driven production, while iron water production is expected to stabilize, further constraining manganese silicon demand [3] - Analysts suggest that the long-term demand for manganese silicon is likely to remain weak, and recommend short positions at higher prices, with resistance levels at 6050-6150 yuan/ton and support levels at 5550-5700 yuan/ton [3]