液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-09 现货持稳运行，市场驱动有限 市场分析 1、 1月8日地区价格：山东市场，4380-4460；东北市场，3890-4150；华北市场，4130-4420；华东市场，4300-4500； 沿江市场，4780-4950；西北市场，4200-4350；华南市场，4800-4950。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、 2026年2月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷593美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷588美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4582元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4543元/吨，跌26元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、 2026年2月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷586美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷581美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4528元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4489元/吨，跌26元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日国内液化气现货价格整体持稳运行，山东民用气出现小幅下跌。此外，华东液化气市场昨日持稳为主，下游 采购积极性尚可，成交温和，当前需求有限，业者采购动力一般，市场观望情绪浓厚。整体来看，当前LPG市场 呈现"外强内弱"的格局，虽然近期海 ...

2025年，PP价格下跌的主要原因是基本面疲软。成本端，国际油价偏弱震荡，对化工品种的成本支撑 作用减弱。供应端，PP产能持续快速扩张，全年总产能同比增长逾10%，产量同比增长约17%，供应压 力显著增加。需求端，PP主要下游行业表现疲软。房地产行业缓慢复苏，拖累建材、家电等消费表 现。根据国家统计局数据，2025年1—11月，国内塑料制品产量为6482万吨，同比增长2.1%。塑编、注 塑等PP主要下游行业的开工率长期处于近年偏低水平，市场以刚需采购为主。出口虽成为PP需求端的 重要支撑，但未能完全抵消内需不足的影响。 在此背景下，PP产业链利润受到挤压，全行业大多处于微利或亏损状态，社会库存处于历史同期高 位，对价格形成压制。 聚丙烯（PP）价格2025年全年震荡下行，行业对2026年的价格预期普遍谨慎。当前，在产能持续投放 与传统需求增长乏力的背景下，PP市场供过于求的格局短期难以扭转，价格预计将延续偏弱震荡态 势。 2026年，PP市场面临的宏观与产业环境依然复杂。供应方面，根据钢联数据，2026年PP行业计划新增 产能990万吨，同比增幅为20.1%，即便部分产能推迟投放，实际产能增速仍将维持较高水平 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20260101】回望2025：镍最值得关注的五个时刻 一、行情回顾 1 镍矿RKAB审批进展公布，供应预期率先定调 1月23日，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）透露，2025年镍矿开采配额总量已达2.98亿湿吨，高于去年的2.72 亿湿吨。这成为引发市场供应预期修正的第一个关键时点，部分奠定了镍产业全年"供过于求"的主基 调。 2 印尼政策集中释放期，本土资源管理加强 2025年3月以来，印尼政府连续推出一系列镍资源管控新规，标志着其资源治理策略进入全面收紧阶 段。这些政策指向多重目标：强化本土矿产资源主导权、掌握产业链关键环节定价能力、扩大财政税收 来源，并系统性提升印尼在全球镍产业链中的话语权与影响力。具体包括： 印尼总统Prabowo Subianto公布2025年第8号政府法规(PP)，涉及自然资源出口收入，要求自然资 源出口商将所有海外收入留存在国内至少一年，以优化资源收益在国内的流通。该政策于3月1日 生效，预计2025年将使印尼的外汇储备增加800亿美元。 印尼能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）发布新规，调整金属矿产基准价格（HMA）的计算方式。基 ...

本周燃料油合约合约跟随原油低位反弹,呈现震荡上行态势。 本周主要受地缘局势升级带来的情绪溢价支撑，从周初低位逐步回 升,但中期供过于求的预期对涨幅形成压制,价格波动幅度较前期 有所收窄。 研究品种:燃料油 成文日期：20251229 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 1 期货市场 料油期货周报 1.1 合约行情 核心观点: 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2603 收于 2491 元/吨,较前一交易周 结算价上涨 101 元/吨，涨幅为 4.23%。本周最高价为 2534 元/吨, 最低价为 2401元/吨，成交量为 2971069 手，持仓量为 198195 手，减少 103569 手。 FIT 燃油周分 图 2：FU 燃油行情表 数据来源:国会期货 博易大机 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货各合约价差进一步收窄。 | 交割月份 | 周开盘价 | 感赏价 | 图低价 | 周收盘价 | 涨跌 | 持仓 ...

12月31日，液化石油气期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报4151.00元/吨，震荡上行1.44%。 路透测算数据显示，2025年俄罗斯对欧洲管道天然气出口量下降44%，至180亿立方米，创20世纪70年代初以来最低水平。 机构观点 华泰期货：整体来看，当前LPG市场驱动相对有限，虽然近期海外供应边际收紧，外盘价格走势相对坚挺，但内盘反应相对有限，尤其是醚后碳 四与民用气价格的倒挂对PG盘面形成额外压制。此外，由于仓单与交割博弈增加，给市场带来额外扰动。本周注册仓单量则出现进一步增加，反 映交割资源相对充裕，盘面结构受到压制。往前看，我们认为LPG短期基本面多空因素交织，中期海外供应增长趋势延续，全球平衡表依然是供 过于求的预期，市场不具备持续性短缺的条件，上方阻力依然存在。 中泰期货：中东地区货源紧张问题仍存，但国内贸易商并不愿意为过高的溢价买单。从供给端来看，中东货相对紧张，但较北美溢价程度有限， 难以连续支撑国内LPG气价上行。全球供应充裕，整体价格仍在下行，美丙烷库存仍处高位，后续有望凭借低价优势缓解中东地区货源相对紧缺 【消息面汇总】 沙特阿美公司1月CP公布，丙、丁烷均较12月上调。丙烷为525 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-24 2、\t2026年1月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷586美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4627元/吨，涨35元/吨，丁烷4550元/吨，涨36元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷579美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4573元/吨，涨36元/吨，丁烷4495元/吨，涨35元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG外盘价格走势震荡偏强，但国内市场反应相对平淡，现货整体持稳，局部走低。其中，华东民用气市场主流 成交价格昨日出现下跌，下游采购积极一般，市场成交氛围温和，上游走量优先情绪为主，心态尚可。整体来看， 当前LPG市场驱动相对有限，醚后碳四与民用气价格的倒挂对PG盘面形成额外压制。往前看，我们认为LPG短期 基本面多空因素交织，中期海外供应增长趋势延续，全球平衡表依然是供过于求的预期，市场不具备持续性短缺 的条件，上方阻力依然存在。 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,624.4 | -7.6 | -0.47% | 122.0 | -68.72% | 2,143.0 | -3.38% | | EC2602 | 1,668.6 | -31.2 | -1.84% | 27,023.0 | 11.67% | 31,643.0 | -1.03% | | EC2604 | 1,108.8 | -15.3 | -1.36% | 3,742.0 | -18.39% | 18,692.0 | -1.93% | | EC2606 | 1,270.5 | -13.2 | -1.03% | 193.0 | -1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 主要逻辑：供过于求，国内宏观政策 • 主要风险点：原油大幅波动、国际政策博弈 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳。供需端，农膜需 求较稳，旺季结束包装膜需求转弱。当前LL交割品现货价6580（+40），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差23，升贴水比例0.4%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存5 ...

以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者研究所 广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 文 | 纪元菲 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 今日行情：2025年12月15日，多晶硅期货价格震荡走高，主力合约收盘上涨840元/吨至58030元/吨，涨幅超3%，创出新高。 近期因需求疲软下游价格承压下跌，多晶硅报价有所松动，期货价格逐步回落，期货升水下降。 上涨主要驱动因素： 近期有消息称多晶硅产量或出货量将大幅下降以支持价格，仓单较低也有利于价格偏强运行。近期有消息称多晶硅产量或出货量 将大幅下降以支持价格。但是上周多晶的产量降幅较小，依旧供过于求，库存持续积累，关注后续减产落地情况。此外，2601合 约持仓量在早上仍有4万多手，相较目前仓单量依旧较多，建议投资者注意头寸管理。 近期主要矛盾： 期货价格高升水的强期货市场与供过于求的弱现货市场 近期主要矛盾是期货价格高升水的强期货市场与供过于求的弱现货市场。 在广州期货交易所发布《关于调整多晶硅期货注册品牌的公告》新增注册品牌后，12月8日多晶硅价格大幅低开，随后在平台公司 注册、价格将上调、将大幅减产等消息影响下震荡回升。上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the temporary supply - demand mismatch, the LPG market shows a tight fundamental situation and is oscillating strongly. However, in the medium - term, the supply elasticity of LPG is greater than the demand elasticity. Without large - scale supply disruptions, the supply will be abundant. The supply from the US and the Middle East is expected to grow, while the demand growth in Asia - Pacific countries is restricted by the weak profit of downstream devices. Overall, the global LPG market may continue the oversupply pattern in 2026, but geopolitical conflicts and weather may cause temporary supply - demand mismatches [6][127]. - Based on the decline of the oil price center and the expected oversupply of global LPG, there will be resistance to the upward movement of LPG prices in 2026. After the short - term strong oscillation caused by supply - demand mismatch, opportunities for shorting on rallies can be considered, and the registration of new warehouse receipts after the price rebound on the futures market should be monitored. Recently, the strong cracking spread of naphtha has made LPG more cost - effective, driving the substitution demand of some cracking devices. But if the Russia - Ukraine situation eases and sanctions are relaxed, the supply of Russian naphtha may increase, which could suppress the naphtha cracking spread and have an indirect negative impact on LPG valuation [7][128]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Supply - demand Imbalance in the Oil Market and Resistance to Oil Prices - In 2025, international oil prices were in a wide - range oscillating and declining trend. Taking Brent as a reference, the price center has moved down compared to last year. As of November 25, 2025, the average price of the Brent futures main contract was $68.87 per barrel, a 13.76% decrease from the average price in 2024 [14]. - In 2026, the oil market is expected to face downward pressure. The growth elasticity of oil demand has significantly decreased and cannot offset the release of surplus supply capacity. China's oil demand growth has slowed down, and the global oil consumption has entered a stage of low - growth. Although the supply growth rate will slow down next year, it is still expected to exceed demand, leading to an increase in global oil inventories [15]. 3.2 Weak Oscillation in the 2025 LPG Market and Tariff Disturbances - In 2025, the LPG market was in a weak oscillating pattern. The price center moved down due to the decline in oil prices. The Sino - US tariff conflict caused additional disturbances, mainly resulting in regional price differences rather than global trends [29]. - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was oscillating. Although there were some disturbances such as Middle - East device maintenance and US shipping delays, the impact was limited. The downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific region was weak, and there was no obvious supply shortage [29]. - In Q2 2025, the Sino - US tariff conflict led to a significant change in the trade pattern. China reduced its procurement from the US and turned to the Middle East. The supply - demand imbalance between the US and non - US sources supported the CP price and caused the FEI price to drop. After the tariff was reduced, the domestic market still had a wait - and - see attitude. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict in June also had a short - term impact on the LPG market [30]. - In Q3 2025, the LPG market was relatively stable, and the supply - demand imbalance continued [31]. - In Q4 2025, the Sino - US tariff issue resurfaced, but the impact on the market was smaller than in April. The supply in the Middle East decreased due to refinery maintenance, and the demand in India and Southeast Asia increased during the peak season, which supported the LPG price. However, the weak profit of domestic downstream chemical industries limited the upward movement of the domestic market [32]. 3.3 Continued Oversupply of Global LPG in 2026 and the Reshaping of Trade Flows 3.3.1 Growth in Middle - East LPG Supply - OPEC has gradually withdrawn from the production - cut agreement, and the LPG supply in the Middle East is expected to grow. Although the actual production increase may be different from the quota increase, the overall trend is upward. The UAE is promoting natural - gas field development projects, which will contribute to the growth of NGL supply. In 2026, the LPG supply in the Middle East is expected to increase year - on - year [47]. - In the short - term, the supply in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait has tightened due to refinery maintenance, but it is expected to return to the growth track after the maintenance is completed. Saudi Arabia will face more competition from the US, which may suppress the CP pricing in the medium - term. The US sanctions on Iran have increased, but the LPG supply in Iran has not been significantly affected [48][49]. 3.3.2 Growth in US LPG Supply - The production of NGL and LPG in the US has continued to grow in recent years. In 2025, the LPG export volume increased, and the export capacity has been improved through terminal expansion projects. Although there was a potential device failure in December 2025, it is not expected to affect the long - term supply trend [66]. - In 2026, the growth trend of US shale - gas production is expected to continue, and the production of NGL and LPG is also expected to increase. The expansion of export terminals will further enhance the export capacity [67]. 3.3.3 Reshaping of LPG Trade Flows - After the Sino - US tariff conflict in April 2025, China reduced its imports from the US and increased imports from the Middle East. Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and India increased their imports from the US. India signed a long - term LPG procurement agreement with the US, which will affect the CP and FEI pricing [85][86]. 3.3.4 Increase in Russian LPG Supply to China - In recent years, China's imports of LPG from Russia have been increasing. From January to November 2025, the import volume exceeded 700,000 tons, a 63.8% increase compared to the previous year. Although the absolute volume is limited by transportation bottlenecks, it has become an important marginal increment, especially for the Northeast region [102]. 3.3.5 Constraints on the Growth of China's LPG Demand - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the commissioning of downstream chemical devices (mainly PDH). In 2026, about 3.75 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be put into operation, which may contribute about 2.8 million tons of propane demand. However, the weak profit of the PDH industry has restricted the start - up of existing devices and the commissioning of new ones, so the actual demand growth may be lower than expected [105]. - Other devices such as ethylene - cracking also have potential for growth, but the low profit restricts the endogenous demand growth. The demand for LPG in the combustion sector lacks growth potential, and the demand growth in 2026 will still be mainly driven by the chemical downstream, with profit being the main limiting factor [107].