Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - The recent significant escalation of the Middle East situation, with the US increasing pressure on Iran, has led to a rise in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and driven up downstream energy - chemical products. The LPG market has a large risk exposure to the Iranian situation, and the US cold wave is also bullish for LPG. However, excluding geopolitical and seasonal factors, the endogenous upward drive of the LPG market is relatively limited. In the medium - term, the global LPG supply is expected to continue to increase, and the market is expected to be in a state of oversupply [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 26, the regional prices in different markets in China were as follows: Shandong market, 4440 - 4440 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3940 - 4100 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4430 yuan/ton; East China market, 4170 - 4340 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4680 - 4980 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4360 yuan/ton; South China market, 4740 - 4820 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 639 US dollars/ton and 629 US dollars/ton respectively, up 19 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4913 yuan/ton for propane and 4836 yuan/ton for butane, up 140 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 631 US dollars/ton and 621 US dollars/ton respectively, up 19 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4852 yuan/ton for propane and 4775 yuan/ton for butane, up 141 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, and the development of the Iranian situation should be closely monitored. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Iran, the energy sector has risen as a whole. The PG market has continued to fluctuate strongly, with a firm performance in the external market and continued increases in domestic spot prices. The previously weak ether - post carbon four has also been driven up by the crude oil end. Recently, the LPG market shows a pattern of "strong outside and weak inside", with a marginal tightening of overseas supply and an intensifying geopolitical situation. However, the price inversion between ether - post carbon four and civil gas exerts additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has brought disturbances to the market. In the medium term, the global balance sheet still anticipates an oversupply, with limited internal drivers in the market. Potential upward risks come from the geopolitical level. If the conflict in the Middle East further escalates and Iran's LPG supply declines, it will lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, so continuous attention to the situation development is needed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 14, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4430 - 4470 yuan; Northeast market, 3910 - 4150 yuan; North China market, 4200 - 4430 yuan; East China market, 4350 - 4550 yuan; Yangtze River market, 4750 - 5080 yuan; Northwest market, 4200 - 4400 yuan; South China market, 4990 - 5100 yuan [1]. - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 607 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4686 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and butane was 4647 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China was 599 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 594 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4624 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and butane was 4585 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, the market fluctuates strongly. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current LPG market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although overseas supply has tightened marginally recently and the external market price is relatively firm, the domestic market's reaction is limited. The inversion of the price of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG market. In the short - term, the fundamentals of LPG have both positive and negative factors. In the medium - term, the overseas supply growth trend continues, and the global supply - demand balance is expected to be oversupplied, with resistance to upward price movement. The escalation of the geopolitical situation is worthy of attention [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On January 8, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4380 - 4460; Northeast market, 3890 - 4150; North China market, 4130 - 4420; East China market, 4300 - 4500; Yangtze River market, 4780 - 4950; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350; South China market, 4800 - 4950 [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 593 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 588 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4582 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4543 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 586 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 581 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4528 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4489 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton [1] - The domestic LPG spot price remained stable overall yesterday, with a slight decline in Shandong civil gas. The East China LPG market was mainly stable, with fair downstream purchasing enthusiasm, moderate trading, limited current demand, general purchasing motivation of industry players, and strong market wait - and - see sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that polypropylene (PP) prices are expected to decline throughout 2025, with cautious expectations for 2026 due to oversupply and weak demand in the market [1][2] Group 2 - In 2025, the primary reason for the decline in PP prices is weak fundamentals, with total production capacity increasing by over 10% year-on-year and production volume rising by approximately 17% [1] - The demand side shows sluggish performance in key downstream industries, particularly in real estate, which affects consumption in construction materials and home appliances [1] - Domestic plastic product output from January to November 2025 reached 64.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but the operating rates in major PP downstream sectors remain low [1] Group 3 - In 2026, the PP market will continue to face a complex macro and industrial environment, with planned new capacity of 9.9 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [2] - The real estate sector is expected to maintain downward pressure until 2027, limiting demand for related chemical products [2] - Overall, the PP industry in 2026 will exhibit characteristics of high supply, weak demand, and low profits, with futures prices lacking a basis for significant upward trends [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total nickel mining quota in Indonesia for 2025 has reached 298 million wet tons, an increase from 272 million wet tons in the previous year, indicating a supply surplus expectation for the nickel industry [1] - The nickel market experienced a significant downturn on April 3, 2025, due to the implementation of a 10% minimum benchmark tariff by the Trump administration, which led to a 7.51% drop in nickel futures prices [5] - By December 31, 2025, nickel prices rebounded to 135,570 yuan/ton, a 21.4% increase from the year's lowest point, driven by market sensitivity to supply disruptions [8] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Since March 2025, the Indonesian government has introduced a series of nickel resource management regulations aimed at strengthening local resource control and increasing fiscal revenue, including a requirement for exporters to retain overseas income domestically for at least one year [3] - New regulations have adjusted the calculation method for metal mineral benchmark prices, which will be updated bi-monthly based on LME spot settlement prices [3] - Proposed adjustments to non-tax state revenue (PNBP) suggest increasing nickel mining tax rates from a fixed 10% to a range of 14%-19%, among other changes to tax rates for various nickel products [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The nickel market exhibited a "quiet" phase from April to October 2025, with no significant price movements despite ongoing regulatory changes, reflecting market skepticism about the enforcement of new policies [6] - Concerns about supply tightening are expected to persist until the final implementation of Indonesian policies, with potential implications for overall industry costs [8] - The nickel industry remains in a capacity expansion cycle, with supply growth outpacing demand, but future market direction will depend on the approval of mining quotas and the rollout of tax policies [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Fuel oil [1] - Report date: December 29, 2025 - Report cycle: Weekly report - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification number: F0238922; Investment consulting certificate number: Z0001219) [1] Group 2: Core View - This week, fuel oil contracts rebounded from a low level following crude oil, showing a volatile upward trend [2]. - Supported by the emotional premium brought about by the escalation of the geopolitical situation, the price gradually recovered from the low level at the beginning of the week. However, the medium - term supply - demand imbalance expectation suppressed the increase, and the price fluctuation range narrowed compared with the previous period [2]. Group 3: Futures Market 3.1 Contract Market Conditions - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 closed at 2,491 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton or 4.23% from the previous trading week's settlement price [3]. - The highest price this week was 2,534 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,401 yuan/ton [3]. - The trading volume was 2,971,069 lots, and the open interest was 198,195 lots, a decrease of 103,569 lots [3]. 3.2 Variety Prices - The price spreads of fuel oil futures contracts further narrowed [6]. - Details of each contract's weekly opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change, open interest, open interest change, weekend settlement price, trading volume, and trading amount are provided in the table [6]. Group 4: Spot Market 4.1 Basis Data - The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week, and the current basis level was in the lower range of recent months [8]. - The fuel oil price is closely linked to crude oil, and the low - level consolidation of crude oil further restricted the upward elasticity of the basis [8]. 4.2 Benchmark Price - The fuel oil benchmark price in yuan/ton was flat compared with the beginning of the month. The fuel oil benchmark price in US dollars/ton decreased compared with the beginning of the month [13].

Core Viewpoint - The LPG market is experiencing limited driving forces, with mixed factors affecting short-term fundamentals and a prevailing expectation of oversupply in the medium term [4][5]. Market Performance - As of December 31, LPG futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract priced at 4151.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [1]. Price Adjustments - Saudi Aramco announced an increase in January CP for propane and butane, with propane priced at $525/ton (up $30 from December) and butane at $520/ton (up $35 from December) [2]. - Estimated import costs for propane are around 4700 yuan/ton, while butane is approximately 4662 yuan/ton [2]. Import Data - In November 2025, China's total LPG imports reached 2.9161 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 thousand tons (0.25% decline) from October, but a year-on-year increase of 26.87% compared to the same period last year [2]. Supply Dynamics - The supply from Russia to Europe is projected to decline by 44% to 18 billion cubic meters, marking the lowest level since the early 1970s [2]. - Despite tight supply from the Middle East, domestic traders are reluctant to pay high premiums, limiting upward price movement [4]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment indicates that while there is some support for LPG prices, significant upward movement is unlikely, with prices expected to remain volatile [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG external market price shows an oscillating and strengthening trend, but the domestic market reaction is relatively flat, with overall stable spot prices and partial declines. The current LPG market has limited driving forces, and the price inversion between ether - post carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG futures market. In the short - term, the fundamentals of the LPG market have both positive and negative factors. In the medium - term, the overseas supply growth trend continues, and the global balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, so there is still resistance above [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Contents Market Analysis - On December 23, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4270 - 4390; Northeast market, 4240 - 4300; North China market, 4200 - 4330; East China market, 4250 - 4370; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 4960; Northwest market, 4100 - 4270; South China market, 4440 - 4530 [1] - In the second half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 596 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 586 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4627 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton, and butane was 4550 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 589 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 579 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4573 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton, and butane was 4495 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [1] - The mainstream transaction price of the civil gas market in East China decreased yesterday. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was average, the market transaction atmosphere was mild, and the upstream was more focused on sales volume, with a decent attitude [1]

Report Overview - The report is a shipping daily from the Commodity Research Institute, dated December 18, 2025, focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][2][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The EC market experienced a corrective oscillation on December 18th. The market continues to speculate on the freight rate trend in January. The short - term market will remain volatile at a high level, and there are still differences in the market's expectations for the January freight rate. The key factors for future expected differences are the price adjustment rhythm and the time of the peak in January [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Performance - On December 18, the EC2602 contract closed at 1,668.6 points, down 1.84% from the previous day. The latest delivery settlement price of the EC2512 contract on December 12 was 1,510.56 points, up 0.1% month - on - month, and it was lower than market expectations, which drove the EC2512 contract to correct downward [5] 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - **Spot Freight Rates**: The spot cargo - booking situation has improved recently. MSK released a quote for European base ports in the first week of the new year. Different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for December and January. For example, CMA will levy a PSS of $250/TEU from December 29 [6] - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity of Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports in December is 283,000 TEU. The weekly average capacities in January and February 2026 are 296,500 TEU and 280,700 TEU respectively. The January capacity increased by about 3% compared with the previous week's schedule, and the February capacity decreased by 3.7% [6] - **Geopolitical Factors**: The second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has begun but is still tortuous. The statements of shipping companies and the resumption of shipping after the Spring Festival need to be observed [6] 3.1.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Partially take profits and hold part of the long positions in the EC2602 contract. Pay attention to the implementation of shipping companies' price increases and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume [7] - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [8] 3.2 Industry News - In 2025, the number of container ship orders reached a new record of 633 ships, totaling 5.08 million TEUs, with Chinese shipyards accounting for 72% of the orders. There are concerns about future over - capacity in the container market [9] - Russian President Putin's speech indicates that the US government's efforts to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine have not changed the Kremlin's military goals [9] - If Putin rejects the peace agreement, the US is prepared to impose new sanctions on Russia [9] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures, such as the SCFIS European Line Index, SCFIS US - West Line Index, SCFI Comprehensive Index, and container freight rates for different routes, which are sourced from institutions like Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Clarksons, and Wind [10][13][17]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today. The fundamentals are overall bearish with oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [4]. - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today. The fundamentals are bearish with oversupply, although the rising propane price affects the market. The industrial inventory is neutral and downstream demand is weakening [6]. LLDPE Summary Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan from early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pausing the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, stabilizing coal - based production profits. The demand for agricultural films is stable, while the demand for packaging films has weakened after the peak season [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 23, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), considered neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net long, with a reduction in long positions, considered bullish [4]. Supply - Demand Factors - Bullish: Cost support [5]. - Bearish: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [5]. Main Logic - Oversupply and domestic macro - policies are the main factors [5]. PP Summary Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan from early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pausing the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, stabilizing coal - based production profits, while PDH profits continued to decline due to the strong propane price. The demand for plastic woven products has fallen into the off - season, while the demand for pipes is fair [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, considered neutral [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), considered neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, with a reduction in short positions, considered bearish [6]. Supply - Demand Factors - Bullish: Cost support [7]. - Bearish: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [7]. Main Logic - Oversupply and domestic macro - policies are the main factors [7]. Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6580 (+40). The prices of the 05, L01, L05, and L09 contracts are 6557, 6522, 6557, and 6583 respectively, with price changes [8]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6250 (unchanged). The prices of the 05, PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts are 6254, 6178, 6254, and 6277 respectively, with price changes [8]. Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 11,332 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 508,000 tons, and the social inventory is 457,000 tons [8]. - PP: The warehouse receipt is 15,747 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 537,000 tons, and the social inventory is 315,000 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate [15].