1、\t1月26日地区价格：山东市场，4440-4440；东北市场，3940-4100；华北市场，4250-4430；华东市场，4170-4340； 沿江市场，4680-4980；西北市场，4300-4360；华南市场，4740-4820。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-27 地缘风险攀升，盘面强势反弹 市场分析 2、\t2026年2月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷639美元/吨，涨19美元/吨，丁烷629美元/吨，涨19美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4913元/吨，涨140元/吨，丁烷4836元/吨，涨140元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年2月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷631美元/吨，涨19美元/吨，丁烷621美元/吨，涨19美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4852元/吨，涨141元/吨，丁烷4775元/吨，涨141元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期中东局势显著升温，美国上周五加大了对伊朗的施压，对运输伊朗石油的船只实施更多制裁，并宣布一支舰 队正驶向这个中东国家。伊朗不同于委内瑞拉，由于其地缘位置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木 兹海峡，因此 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-15 地缘风险上升，盘面延续震荡偏强态势 市场分析 1、\t1月14日地区价格：山东市场，4430-4470；东北市场，3910-4150；华北市场，4200-4430；华东市场，4350-4550； 沿江市场，4750-5080；西北市场，4200-4400；华南市场，4990-5100。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年2月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷607美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷602美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4686元/吨，涨55元/吨，丁烷4647元/吨，涨55元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、2026年2月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷599美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷594美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4624元/吨，涨55元/吨，丁烷4585元/吨，涨55元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着伊朗地缘局势升温，能源板块整体上涨，PG盘面延续震荡偏强运行，外盘表现坚挺，昨日与国内现货继续上 涨，前期表现较弱的醚后碳四也受到原油端带动上涨。整体来看，近期LPG市场呈现"外强内弱"的格局，海外供应 边际收紧，地缘局 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current LPG market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although overseas supply has tightened marginally recently and the external market price is relatively firm, the domestic market's reaction is limited. The inversion of the price of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG market. In the short - term, the fundamentals of LPG have both positive and negative factors. In the medium - term, the overseas supply growth trend continues, and the global supply - demand balance is expected to be oversupplied, with resistance to upward price movement. The escalation of the geopolitical situation is worthy of attention [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On January 8, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4380 - 4460; Northeast market, 3890 - 4150; North China market, 4130 - 4420; East China market, 4300 - 4500; Yangtze River market, 4780 - 4950; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350; South China market, 4800 - 4950 [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 593 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 588 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4582 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4543 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 586 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 581 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4528 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4489 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton [1] - The domestic LPG spot price remained stable overall yesterday, with a slight decline in Shandong civil gas. The East China LPG market was mainly stable, with fair downstream purchasing enthusiasm, moderate trading, limited current demand, general purchasing motivation of industry players, and strong market wait - and - see sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that polypropylene (PP) prices are expected to decline throughout 2025, with cautious expectations for 2026 due to oversupply and weak demand in the market [1][2] Group 2 - In 2025, the primary reason for the decline in PP prices is weak fundamentals, with total production capacity increasing by over 10% year-on-year and production volume rising by approximately 17% [1] - The demand side shows sluggish performance in key downstream industries, particularly in real estate, which affects consumption in construction materials and home appliances [1] - Domestic plastic product output from January to November 2025 reached 64.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but the operating rates in major PP downstream sectors remain low [1] Group 3 - In 2026, the PP market will continue to face a complex macro and industrial environment, with planned new capacity of 9.9 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [2] - The real estate sector is expected to maintain downward pressure until 2027, limiting demand for related chemical products [2] - Overall, the PP industry in 2026 will exhibit characteristics of high supply, weak demand, and low profits, with futures prices lacking a basis for significant upward trends [2]

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20260101】回望2025：镍最值得关注的五个时刻 一、行情回顾 1 镍矿RKAB审批进展公布，供应预期率先定调 1月23日，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）透露，2025年镍矿开采配额总量已达2.98亿湿吨，高于去年的2.72 亿湿吨。这成为引发市场供应预期修正的第一个关键时点，部分奠定了镍产业全年"供过于求"的主基 调。 2 印尼政策集中释放期，本土资源管理加强 2025年3月以来，印尼政府连续推出一系列镍资源管控新规，标志着其资源治理策略进入全面收紧阶 段。这些政策指向多重目标：强化本土矿产资源主导权、掌握产业链关键环节定价能力、扩大财政税收 来源，并系统性提升印尼在全球镍产业链中的话语权与影响力。具体包括： 印尼总统Prabowo Subianto公布2025年第8号政府法规(PP)，涉及自然资源出口收入，要求自然资 源出口商将所有海外收入留存在国内至少一年，以优化资源收益在国内的流通。该政策于3月1日 生效，预计2025年将使印尼的外汇储备增加800亿美元。 印尼能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）发布新规，调整金属矿产基准价格（HMA）的计算方式。基 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Fuel oil [1] - Report date: December 29, 2025 - Report cycle: Weekly report - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification number: F0238922; Investment consulting certificate number: Z0001219) [1] Group 2: Core View - This week, fuel oil contracts rebounded from a low level following crude oil, showing a volatile upward trend [2]. - Supported by the emotional premium brought about by the escalation of the geopolitical situation, the price gradually recovered from the low level at the beginning of the week. However, the medium - term supply - demand imbalance expectation suppressed the increase, and the price fluctuation range narrowed compared with the previous period [2]. Group 3: Futures Market 3.1 Contract Market Conditions - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 closed at 2,491 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton or 4.23% from the previous trading week's settlement price [3]. - The highest price this week was 2,534 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,401 yuan/ton [3]. - The trading volume was 2,971,069 lots, and the open interest was 198,195 lots, a decrease of 103,569 lots [3]. 3.2 Variety Prices - The price spreads of fuel oil futures contracts further narrowed [6]. - Details of each contract's weekly opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change, open interest, open interest change, weekend settlement price, trading volume, and trading amount are provided in the table [6]. Group 4: Spot Market 4.1 Basis Data - The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week, and the current basis level was in the lower range of recent months [8]. - The fuel oil price is closely linked to crude oil, and the low - level consolidation of crude oil further restricted the upward elasticity of the basis [8]. 4.2 Benchmark Price - The fuel oil benchmark price in yuan/ton was flat compared with the beginning of the month. The fuel oil benchmark price in US dollars/ton decreased compared with the beginning of the month [13].

Core Viewpoint - The LPG market is experiencing limited driving forces, with mixed factors affecting short-term fundamentals and a prevailing expectation of oversupply in the medium term [4][5]. Market Performance - As of December 31, LPG futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract priced at 4151.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [1]. Price Adjustments - Saudi Aramco announced an increase in January CP for propane and butane, with propane priced at $525/ton (up $30 from December) and butane at $520/ton (up $35 from December) [2]. - Estimated import costs for propane are around 4700 yuan/ton, while butane is approximately 4662 yuan/ton [2]. Import Data - In November 2025, China's total LPG imports reached 2.9161 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 thousand tons (0.25% decline) from October, but a year-on-year increase of 26.87% compared to the same period last year [2]. Supply Dynamics - The supply from Russia to Europe is projected to decline by 44% to 18 billion cubic meters, marking the lowest level since the early 1970s [2]. - Despite tight supply from the Middle East, domestic traders are reluctant to pay high premiums, limiting upward price movement [4]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment indicates that while there is some support for LPG prices, significant upward movement is unlikely, with prices expected to remain volatile [5].

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-24 2、\t2026年1月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷586美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4627元/吨，涨35元/吨，丁烷4550元/吨，涨36元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷579美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4573元/吨，涨36元/吨，丁烷4495元/吨，涨35元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG外盘价格走势震荡偏强，但国内市场反应相对平淡，现货整体持稳，局部走低。其中，华东民用气市场主流 成交价格昨日出现下跌，下游采购积极一般，市场成交氛围温和，上游走量优先情绪为主，心态尚可。整体来看， 当前LPG市场驱动相对有限，醚后碳四与民用气价格的倒挂对PG盘面形成额外压制。往前看，我们认为LPG短期 基本面多空因素交织，中期海外供应增长趋势延续，全球平衡表依然是供过于求的预期，市场不具备持续性短缺 的条件，上方阻力依然存在。 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏 ...

Report Overview - The report is a shipping daily from the Commodity Research Institute, dated December 18, 2025, focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][2][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The EC market experienced a corrective oscillation on December 18th. The market continues to speculate on the freight rate trend in January. The short - term market will remain volatile at a high level, and there are still differences in the market's expectations for the January freight rate. The key factors for future expected differences are the price adjustment rhythm and the time of the peak in January [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Performance - On December 18, the EC2602 contract closed at 1,668.6 points, down 1.84% from the previous day. The latest delivery settlement price of the EC2512 contract on December 12 was 1,510.56 points, up 0.1% month - on - month, and it was lower than market expectations, which drove the EC2512 contract to correct downward [5] 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - **Spot Freight Rates**: The spot cargo - booking situation has improved recently. MSK released a quote for European base ports in the first week of the new year. Different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for December and January. For example, CMA will levy a PSS of $250/TEU from December 29 [6] - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity of Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports in December is 283,000 TEU. The weekly average capacities in January and February 2026 are 296,500 TEU and 280,700 TEU respectively. The January capacity increased by about 3% compared with the previous week's schedule, and the February capacity decreased by 3.7% [6] - **Geopolitical Factors**: The second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has begun but is still tortuous. The statements of shipping companies and the resumption of shipping after the Spring Festival need to be observed [6] 3.1.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Partially take profits and hold part of the long positions in the EC2602 contract. Pay attention to the implementation of shipping companies' price increases and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume [7] - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [8] 3.2 Industry News - In 2025, the number of container ship orders reached a new record of 633 ships, totaling 5.08 million TEUs, with Chinese shipyards accounting for 72% of the orders. There are concerns about future over - capacity in the container market [9] - Russian President Putin's speech indicates that the US government's efforts to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine have not changed the Kremlin's military goals [9] - If Putin rejects the peace agreement, the US is prepared to impose new sanctions on Russia [9] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures, such as the SCFIS European Line Index, SCFIS US - West Line Index, SCFI Comprehensive Index, and container freight rates for different routes, which are sourced from institutions like Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Clarksons, and Wind [10][13][17]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today. The fundamentals are overall bearish with oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [4]. - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today. The fundamentals are bearish with oversupply, although the rising propane price affects the market. The industrial inventory is neutral and downstream demand is weakening [6]. LLDPE Summary Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan from early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pausing the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, stabilizing coal - based production profits. The demand for agricultural films is stable, while the demand for packaging films has weakened after the peak season [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 23, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), considered neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net long, with a reduction in long positions, considered bullish [4]. Supply - Demand Factors - Bullish: Cost support [5]. - Bearish: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [5]. Main Logic - Oversupply and domestic macro - policies are the main factors [5]. PP Summary Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan from early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pausing the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, stabilizing coal - based production profits, while PDH profits continued to decline due to the strong propane price. The demand for plastic woven products has fallen into the off - season, while the demand for pipes is fair [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, considered neutral [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), considered neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, with a reduction in short positions, considered bearish [6]. Supply - Demand Factors - Bullish: Cost support [7]. - Bearish: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [7]. Main Logic - Oversupply and domestic macro - policies are the main factors [7]. Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6580 (+40). The prices of the 05, L01, L05, and L09 contracts are 6557, 6522, 6557, and 6583 respectively, with price changes [8]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6250 (unchanged). The prices of the 05, PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts are 6254, 6178, 6254, and 6277 respectively, with price changes [8]. Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 11,332 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 508,000 tons, and the social inventory is 457,000 tons [8]. - PP: The warehouse receipt is 15,747 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 537,000 tons, and the social inventory is 315,000 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate [15].