文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘下跌不少，中证全指下跌1.38%，截止到收盘，还在4.7星。 今天大盘股下跌较多，沪深300下跌1.82%。 中小盘股微跌，波动不太大。 价值风格相对抗跌，下跌较少。 成长风格下跌较多。 港股跌幅跟A股相近。 港股科技股今天坚挺一些，跌幅较小。 1. 前两天也提到过， （1）牛市不是一路上涨上去的。 即便是2007、2015年这种1星级大牛市，中间也出现过数次10-20%级别的回调。 遇到波动很正常。 如果盈利增长良好，那一波上涨来的就更快。 A股从去年5.9星之后，出现了两波大幅上涨，反弹到4.7星上下。 港股比A股多出一波上涨，今年涨幅比A股多了20-30%，从5点几星，反弹到前几天的3.9星 上下，这两天回落到4-4.1星。 后面也会介绍下港股星级。 （3）不同品种，业绩复苏有先有后。 去年先是港股科技股复苏，盈利同比增长超100%。 今年一二季度，港股、A股医药也出现了盈利同比大幅增长，带动医药类指数上涨。 中小盘股今年也有复苏的迹象；消费暂时基本面还比较低迷。 二季度已经结束，等二季报更新后，也会汇总介绍下主流指数背后公司的盈利增长情况。 （2）最近一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of the dividend index in recent years, its driving factors, and the potential for continued growth in the future [1][5][47]. Performance Overview - The dividend index has shown strong performance in recent years, with some dividend funds increasing in value by 50%-80% [8][47]. - From 2018 to 2021, the growth style bull market saw the growth style index rise over 150%, while the dividend index lagged behind [6]. - However, from 2022 to 2024, the dividend index has performed well, showing overall growth [7]. Sources of Returns - The four main sources of returns for dividend index funds are: 1. **Undervalued Buy-in and Valuation Improvement**: The dividend index has seen a significant increase in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from around 7-8 times in 2018 to approximately 9-10 times by May 2025 [18][19][22]. 2. **Profit Growth**: The underlying companies of the dividend index have shown stable profit growth, particularly from 2022 to 2024, which supports the index's performance [27]. 3. **Dividend Yield**: The current dividend yield has increased significantly compared to 5-10 years ago, with many stocks now yielding 5%-6% [30][34]. 4. **Rule Optimization**: The optimization of index rules has improved returns, with newer indices incorporating additional criteria for stock selection [39][44]. Historical Performance Metrics - The annualized return of the dividend index since the end of 2004 is 8.73%, which increases to 12.52% when accounting for dividends [13][14]. - The long-term growth rate of the dividend index is estimated at 8%-9%, with an additional annual dividend yield of 3%-4% [14]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have encouraged companies to increase dividend payouts, resulting in a rise in the number and amount of cash dividends distributed by A-share companies, reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [33]. - The proportion of profits distributed as dividends has increased from 30%-40% to 40%-50% for some companies [34]. Conclusion - The combination of undervalued buy-in, profit growth, increased dividend yields, and optimized rules are expected to continue driving the long-term growth of the dividend index [47].