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[6月12日]指数估值数据(红利策略什么情况会失效;红利估值表更新;指数日报更新)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-06-12 13:53
Market Overview - The market opened lower but closed slightly higher, with minimal volatility, approaching a 4.9 star rating [1] - The CSI 300 index slightly declined, while small and mid-cap stocks experienced a slight increase. Value indices fell slightly, and growth styles rose, with the pharmaceutical sector showing strength [2] - Hong Kong stocks declined today, but the dividend stocks remained relatively stable with low volatility [3][4] - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw a significant pullback, yet it has not returned to undervalued levels, currently sitting at a normal low valuation [5] Dividend Stocks Performance - Recently, dividend-related stocks have been gradually rising, with Hong Kong dividend stocks returning to normal valuations. The low volatility dividend stocks in the Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen market are also close to normal valuations [6] - Concerns have been raised about whether dividend stocks, which performed well in recent years, might face a period of underperformance. Any investment strategy can have its strong and weak phases [7] Historical Performance of Dividend Stocks - From the valuation updates, dividend stocks have experienced two cycles of outperforming and underperforming the market [8] - In 2014-2015, dividend stocks underperformed the market during a bull market dominated by small and mid-cap stocks and the ChiNext index [9][10][11] - The period from 2016 to 2018 saw dividend stocks outperform the market as large-cap stocks rebounded while small-cap stocks fell from their bubble [18] - From 2019 to 2021, dividend stocks again underperformed during a growth style bull market, while from 2022 to 2024, they are expected to outperform due to lower valuations [13][20][22] Factors Affecting Dividend Stocks - A significant increase in interest rates could lead to a period of underperformance for dividend stocks. The past decade has seen a decline in interest rates in China, while the U.S. has experienced substantial rate hikes [24][25] - The potential for underperformance in dividend stocks may arise from strong performance in small-cap or growth styles, or from rising interest rates, which could make dividend yields less attractive [26] Long-term Effectiveness of Dividend Strategies - Dividend strategies have been effective in the A-share market over the long term, but not consistently. Periods of underperformance can provide a foundation for long-term effectiveness [27] - During periods of underperformance, many investors may abandon the strategy, which helps maintain its effectiveness [28] - Future phases of underperformance for dividend strategies are possible, but investing in undervalued areas can provide some protection [30] Valuation Tables and Investment Strategies - Various indices and their respective metrics, such as earnings yield, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, and dividend yield, are provided for reference [33][34][35][36] - The document includes a list of funds tracking these indices, detailing their scale and average dividend distribution [38] - Different investment strategies, including value, low volatility, growth, and quality, have their own phases of performance, with value strategies potentially stabilizing overall performance when paired with undervalued growth strategies [41][42]