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存款利率走低,买黄金养老靠谱吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 10:10
存款利率这么低,养老要不要改投黄金? 望着接连攀升的金价,再对比已然"1"字打头的存款利率,不少投资者心里都冒出了同一个疑问: "存款利率这么低,养老要不要改投黄金?买黄金养老到底靠谱吗?" 从抗通胀能力到避险属性,再到近年全球央行购金潮与地缘政治的催化,黄金的光环似乎愈发耀眼。 但当我们手握养老资金,直面"黄金能否撑起养老支柱"这个核心问题时,答案或许需要跳出短期涨跌的喧嚣,回归养老投 资的本质—— 追求长期稳健的现金流、可控的波动性,以及对抗购买力缩水的确定性。 01 黄金在养老投资中的角色 ——是"压舱石",而非"主力军" 黄金的长期配置价值在于其"反脆弱性"。历史上,黄金与股票、债券等传统资产的相关性较低,这意味着当市场遭遇剧烈 波动时,黄金往往能起到对冲风险的作用,成为资产组合的"压舱石"。 以2023年为例,当年权益市场整体蛰伏,沪深300指数全年下跌11%,而内盘金价却逆势上涨16%。这种在市场动荡中仍能 创造收益的"危机alpha"特性,正是黄金吸引投资者的重要原因。(来源:Wind) 不过,若将黄金作为养老核心资产,其短板也同样鲜明。 第一,黄金不生息,不产生持续的现金流。 养老资金的核心诉 ...
红利类指数基金,是不是更难达到高估?|投资小知识
银行螺丝钉· 2025-08-13 12:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and valuation of dividend and value style indices, highlighting their resilience and potential for returns even without reaching overvaluation levels [3][4][6]. Group 1: Valuation and Performance - The dividend index has not reached overvaluation during the period from 2018 to August 2025, with the China Securities Dividend Index increasing from around 8 times to approximately 10 times in price-to-earnings ratio [6]. - The contribution of "valuation improvement" accounts for approximately 25% of the returns during this period [7]. - The dividend index offers an annual dividend yield of 4%-5%, with the remaining returns coming from the growth in earnings of the companies behind the index [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy of "buy low and sell high" is inherent in value style investing, which tends to maintain lower valuations over time [3][9]. - Even in years when the value style indices do not reach overvaluation, they can still experience significant price appreciation, as evidenced by a 60%-70% return from certain dividend and low-volatility funds held since 2018 [4].
如何用房租收入,打造更适合中国家庭的"无限现金流"?| 螺丝钉带你读书
银行螺丝钉· 2025-08-02 13:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "infinite cash flow" and how to achieve it through accumulating cash-generating assets, particularly in the context of real estate and financial assets in China [3][4][7]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market experiences cycles of bull and bear markets, with a typical cycle lasting about 15-20 years, compared to 7-10 years for stocks and 3-5 years for bonds [13][14]. - The last bull market in real estate began after the 2009 stimulus plan and lasted until around 2018, followed by a bear market that has persisted for six to seven years [16][20]. - Future appreciation in real estate is expected, but it will vary by city, with some areas experiencing significant declines and others likely to recover based on population inflow and income growth [22][23]. Group 2: Real Estate Valuation Metrics - Key valuation indicators include the proportion of real estate value in total wealth, which peaked at over 70% in households during the market's height, compared to 20-30% in developed countries [27][31]. - The rental yield is another important metric, with a healthy rental yield expected to exceed the yield of long-term government bonds, which was around 2-3% in previous years [34][38]. - Current rental yields in many cities are between 1-3%, while some financial assets offer higher cash flow yields [52]. Group 3: Financial Strategy for Cash Flow - Households are encouraged to rent out excess properties to generate stable rental income, which can then be reinvested into cash-generating financial assets [54][56]. - The strategy involves diversifying cash flow sources to include both rental income and returns from financial investments, ultimately aiming for a more stable "infinite cash flow" [60][61]. - The process is iterative, starting with rental income and gradually increasing the proportion of cash flow from financial assets until it surpasses rental income [58].
低利率时代,如何积累资产,打造无限现金流?| 螺丝钉带你读书
银行螺丝钉· 2025-07-26 13:44
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategy of using income to purchase assets and utilizing the cash flow from those assets to cover expenses, ultimately aiming for financial freedom [3][4][11]. Group 1: Cash Flow Demand and Investment Trends - Low interest rates have increased the demand for cash flow assets, a trend observed in regions like Japan and Hong Kong [4][5]. - In many countries, deposits are the largest financial asset, with China's RMB deposits exceeding 300 trillion [6][7]. - As deposit interest rates decline, investors seek alternative cash flow-generating assets, leading to better performance in dividend stocks, REITs, and fixed-income products post-2023 [11]. Group 2: Common Cash Flow Assets - Common cash flow assets include: 1. Dividend index funds, with many offering yields over 4%, significantly higher than deposit rates [12]. 2. REITs, which invest in commercial real estate and distribute approximately 90% of rental income as dividends [32][33]. 3. Other cash flow sources such as insurance policies, rental income from multiple properties, and stable salary income [35][37]. Group 3: Building Infinite Cash Flow - To create an "infinite cash flow," one should: 1. Identify and invest in undervalued cash flow assets when their yields are high [39]. 2. Use income to purchase these assets, thereby increasing the asset base and cash flow over time [40][42]. 3. Utilize the cash flow from these assets to cover household expenses, aiming for financial independence [43][45]. Group 4: Real Estate Considerations - In the context of China's unique market, many families have invested in real estate during bullish periods but face challenges in bear markets [48][50]. - Understanding how to manage real estate cash flow during downturns is crucial for building a more resilient cash flow strategy [51].
[6月12日]指数估值数据(红利策略什么情况会失效;红利估值表更新;指数日报更新)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-06-12 13:53
Market Overview - The market opened lower but closed slightly higher, with minimal volatility, approaching a 4.9 star rating [1] - The CSI 300 index slightly declined, while small and mid-cap stocks experienced a slight increase. Value indices fell slightly, and growth styles rose, with the pharmaceutical sector showing strength [2] - Hong Kong stocks declined today, but the dividend stocks remained relatively stable with low volatility [3][4] - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw a significant pullback, yet it has not returned to undervalued levels, currently sitting at a normal low valuation [5] Dividend Stocks Performance - Recently, dividend-related stocks have been gradually rising, with Hong Kong dividend stocks returning to normal valuations. The low volatility dividend stocks in the Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen market are also close to normal valuations [6] - Concerns have been raised about whether dividend stocks, which performed well in recent years, might face a period of underperformance. Any investment strategy can have its strong and weak phases [7] Historical Performance of Dividend Stocks - From the valuation updates, dividend stocks have experienced two cycles of outperforming and underperforming the market [8] - In 2014-2015, dividend stocks underperformed the market during a bull market dominated by small and mid-cap stocks and the ChiNext index [9][10][11] - The period from 2016 to 2018 saw dividend stocks outperform the market as large-cap stocks rebounded while small-cap stocks fell from their bubble [18] - From 2019 to 2021, dividend stocks again underperformed during a growth style bull market, while from 2022 to 2024, they are expected to outperform due to lower valuations [13][20][22] Factors Affecting Dividend Stocks - A significant increase in interest rates could lead to a period of underperformance for dividend stocks. The past decade has seen a decline in interest rates in China, while the U.S. has experienced substantial rate hikes [24][25] - The potential for underperformance in dividend stocks may arise from strong performance in small-cap or growth styles, or from rising interest rates, which could make dividend yields less attractive [26] Long-term Effectiveness of Dividend Strategies - Dividend strategies have been effective in the A-share market over the long term, but not consistently. Periods of underperformance can provide a foundation for long-term effectiveness [27] - During periods of underperformance, many investors may abandon the strategy, which helps maintain its effectiveness [28] - Future phases of underperformance for dividend strategies are possible, but investing in undervalued areas can provide some protection [30] Valuation Tables and Investment Strategies - Various indices and their respective metrics, such as earnings yield, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, and dividend yield, are provided for reference [33][34][35][36] - The document includes a list of funds tracking these indices, detailing their scale and average dividend distribution [38] - Different investment strategies, including value, low volatility, growth, and quality, have their own phases of performance, with value strategies potentially stabilizing overall performance when paired with undervalued growth strategies [41][42]
每日钉一下(指数基金也有分红吗?)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-04-23 13:40
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 从历史数据看,指数增强基金的平均收益,多数年份是可以跑赢对应指数的。 但其中也有一部分跑输了指数,如果不谨慎挑选的话,也有可能买到的基金,实际上跑不赢指 数。 那应该如何挑选优秀的指数增强基金呢? 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程,介绍了指数增强基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程,可以添加下方「课程小助手」,回复「 指数增强 」领取哦 ~ ◆◆◆ (1) 红利类指数基金。 红利指数按照高股息率挑选股票,是所有 指数中股息率最高的一类。 红利指数基金是具备定期分红的条件的。 (2) 价值风格指数基金。 例如优选300、300价值、自由现金流 … 这些指数偏价值风格,选出来的股票股息 率也比较高。 (3) 大盘宽基指数基金。 例如中央汇金加仓的沪深300、上证50, 有的基金有分红,有的没有。 如果指数基金要定期分红,一个前提条件 是股息率要比较高。 所以具备长期分红条件的指数基金主要是 这几类: 以及港股恒生指数等。 不过内地基金,定期分红的不多。最近几 年才逐渐完善起来。 如果指数基金定期分红,其基金分红收益 率,通常是略低于指数的股息率。 因为指数的股息率,不考虑分红税等 ...