炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：有鹏自远方来TALKSHOW 来源：有鹏自远方来TALKSHOW 【 鹏说：以史为鉴】主要讲了当前时代与70-80年代冷战时期在战略金属价格波动上具有高度相似性， 都源于地缘政治紧张与科技进步双重属性影响，但价格异常波动的核心驱动因素是战争预期和国家战略 储备需求，而非产业需求增长，历史表明冷战结束后即便产业需求旺盛价格仍会回落。 1． 当前时代与 70-80年代冷战后期高度相似，均处于生产力进步与地缘政治紧张并存的阶段，具备战略和工业双重属 性的金属价格可能异常波动 2． 历史表明这类金属价格剧烈波动的核心驱动是地缘政治冲突和战略储备 需求，而非新兴产业需求，误判主因可能导致重大投资失误 3． 冷战时期美苏通过战略储备、贸易禁运 和代理人战争直接影响金属供需，当前中美竞争模式存在类似冷战特征，需关注政策干预对市场的影响 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：何俊熹 【 鹏说：以史为鉴】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fifth day, leading to significant implications for the economy and military stability, with rising gold prices indicating underlying economic distress [1][11]. Economic Impact - Gold prices have surpassed $3,900, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment amid the government shutdown, which has been largely overlooked by mainstream financial media [1]. - The shutdown has resulted in the suspension of economic data releases for October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economy's true condition [8]. - Shipping industry data shows a decline in demand, with freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles hitting their lowest levels of 2023, indicating a substantial drop in U.S. consumer spending [8]. Military and Political Dynamics - Two senior U.S. military leaders have resigned following the government shutdown, raising concerns about military stability and leadership during this critical period [3]. - The Trump administration appears to be consolidating power and preparing for potential conflict, with experts suggesting that the current shutdown could last longer than any previous instances [5]. - The increasing control over the military by the Trump administration is seen as a response to escalating domestic tensions and financial pressures [10]. Financial Situation - The U.S. Treasury has borrowed $1.7 trillion since raising the debt ceiling in March, with total national debt approaching $38 trillion, indicating a tightening fiscal situation [10]. - The rising tensions and potential for conflict have led to increased investment in gold as a risk-hedging strategy, despite the apparent strength of the U.S. stock market [11].