华尔街摁住油价也难遏通胀 美元超跌反弹冲击滞涨后的 金价 2025年08月15日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周四国际现货金价以3354.41美元开盘，最高上试3374.29美元，最低下探3329.63美元，报收3334.78美元，下跌21.10美元，跌幅0.63%，振幅1.33%，日K 线呈震荡下跌中阴线。 周四美元指数以97.79点开盘，最高上试98.32点，最低下探97.62点，报收98.18点，上涨400点，涨幅0.41%，振幅0.72%，日K线呈震荡回升中阳线。 周四Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6948.72点开盘，最高上试7003.25点，最低下探6873.85点，报收6918.61点，下跌32.76点，跌幅0.47%，振幅1.61%， 日K线呈震荡回落小阴线。 周四市场运行看似杂乱无章，但若参考通胀与利率预期两条基本面主线观察思考，即会理解市场运行的合理性。周四公布的7月美国PPI年率超预期大幅回 升，尤其核心PPI数据。 首先，我们知道9月美联储极大概率会再次推开降息窗口，悬疑是降息25点还是50点？周四PPI年率大幅上行，彰显通胀回 ...

Group 1: Global Market Performance - The MSCI Global Stock Index decreased by 0.34%, while the Bloomberg Global Commodity Index fell by 0.42%, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index dropped by 0.89%, and the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global REITs Index declined by 0.90% [1] - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with only the Chinese stock market rising among the BRICS nations; the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82% and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.93% [1] - In developed markets, the European STOXX Index rose by 1.15%, with Germany's DAX Index up by 1.97% and France's CAC40 Index up by 1.73%, while U.S. indices fell, with the S&P 500 down by 0.31% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Brent crude oil futures rose by 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures increased by 2.16% to $68.45 per barrel [4] - Industrial metals showed mixed performance; aluminum prices increased by 0.50%, while copper prices fell by 2.07% [2] - Gold prices rose by 0.55% to $3,355.59 per ounce, and silver prices increased by 4.02% [2] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 6.4 basis points to 4.411% [2] - European countries also experienced rising yields, with the UK's 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.620% [2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.69% to 97.853, while the Japanese yen depreciated by over 2% against the dollar [2] Group 4: Economic Data and Trends - U.S. initial jobless claims were reported at 227,000, slightly below expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.965 million [3] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicated a divergence in views on interest rate adjustments, with some members favoring rate cuts while others expressed concerns about persistent inflation [3] - The Eurozone's retail sales increased by 1.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations [3] Group 5: REITs and Real Estate Market - The global REITs market saw a decline, with the STOXX Global 1800 REITs Index down by 1.03% [10] - U.S. REITs showed varied performance across sectors, with hotel REITs outperforming expectations [10] - The outlook for REITs remains mixed, with healthcare REITs showing consistent growth while retail REITs face volatility [10] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to monitor oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to consider gold price trends [9] - The potential for further monetary easing by central banks could create long-term investment opportunities in REITs [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the international spot gold price has been fluctuating, initially declining and then rising, influenced by the Federal Reserve's differing views on interest rate outlook due to tariff impacts on inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal that only a "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while most are concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies [1] - The updated dot plot from the meeting shows that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, while 7 predict no cuts until 2025, and 2 anticipate one cut [1] Group 2 - Technically, the market response has been muted, with gold prices hovering around the critical level of $3316 per ounce, indicating unclear market direction [2] - The short-term K-line structure suggests that gold prices have broken below the 21-day short-term moving average, indicating potential entry into a bearish model, but further confirmation is needed [2] - Resistance levels for gold prices are noted at $3385 per ounce, with a breakthrough potentially adjusting resistance to $3434 per ounce, while support is at $3266 per ounce, with a breakdown adjusting support to $3198 per ounce [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices testing resistance levels and showing potential for further declines due to a rebound in the US dollar index and changing Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of July 9, international spot gold has fallen below $3,300 per ounce, currently trading at $3,287.75 per ounce, down 0.39% [1]. - The COMEX gold is trading at $3,299 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, which have shifted due to recent employment data and economic policies [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [7]. - The "Great Beautiful" fiscal plan signed by President Trump is expected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, which may have short-term positive effects on the economy but could exacerbate long-term debt burdens [7][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing trade negotiations and tariff agreements between the US and countries like Vietnam and Cambodia are contributing to market uncertainty, which may support gold prices as a hedge against currency risk [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their potential impact on the economy remains a significant factor influencing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold ETFs and related funds are highlighted as accessible investment vehicles, offering low costs and diverse trading options, which may attract investors looking to hedge against economic volatility [11]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns is emphasized, suggesting that investors may consider regular investments in gold ETFs [11].

Industry Overview - The continuous rise in international gold prices has led to an increasing number of investors engaging in international spot gold investments, making it one of the most popular investment products globally [1] - International spot gold investment has a long history but continues to innovate, attracting modern investors due to its hedging properties and the potential for profit [1] - The international spot gold trading market in China is primarily located in Hong Kong, regulated by the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange Society [1] Company Rankings - The article lists the top ten international spot gold trading platforms in Hong Kong for 2025, all of which are AA-rated members of the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange Society [1] - **Kingrong China**: Established in 2010, it is an AA-rated member and offers a secure electronic trading platform, with a total trading volume exceeding 300 billion [3] - **Wanzhaofeng**: Founded nearly twenty years ago, it operates a diversified business including real estate and financial services, and has been licensed for gold business since 2008 [4] - **Guotai Gold**: An AA-rated member providing high-quality leveraged gold and silver trading services, adhering to fair trading principles [5] - **Tianyu International**: A global financial institution with a focus on investor education and high ethical standards, also an AA-rated member [6] - **Lingfeng Precious Metals**: An AA-rated member with a strong financial background, offering electronic trading of various precious metals [7] - **Wanzhou Gold**: Established in 2017, it provides comprehensive online investment services and holds an AA rating [8] - **Jinseng Precious Metals**: An AA-rated electronic trading member dedicated to providing high-quality investment services [9] - **Xinhui Precious Metals**: An AA-rated member focusing on various precious metal trading [10] - **Bailihao Gold**: A subsidiary of Bailihao Financial Group, offering leveraged gold and silver trading services with an online platform [11] - **Wanluan International Gold**: An AA-rated registered trading merchant, ensuring high standards and strict regulatory compliance [12] Investment Characteristics - International spot gold is characterized as a leveraged international financial product, allowing investors to lower their investment costs compared to other investment methods like stock trading [1] - The trading threshold for international spot gold is significantly lower than that of stocks and bank wealth management products, making it attractive to investors [1]

Group 1 - The gold ETF fund (159937) saw a 0.15% increase with a trading volume of 419 million yuan during the midday session on July 2 [1] - Over the past five days, the gold ETF fund experienced a net inflow of 445 million yuan [1] - The average daily trading volume of the gold ETF fund over the past month was 686 million yuan, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [1] Group 2 - As of July 2, international spot gold was trading at $3,337.36 per ounce, showing no change, with a high of $3,345.12 [2] - COMEX gold was priced at $3,347 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.08% [2] - Notable increases in related stocks included Shandong Gold up 5.50%, Zijin Mining up 4.24%, and Luk Fook Holdings up 3.99% [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is in a wait-and-see mode regarding interest rate cuts, influenced by uncertainties from the U.S. government's tariff policies [3] - Powell acknowledged that the Fed's monetary policy may be affected by the government's tariffs, which have raised inflation rate predictions [3] - The Fed's decision on potential rate cuts in July will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly employment figures [4] Group 4 - The U.S. economy remains robust with a strong labor market, but upcoming employment data will be crucial for assessing the Fed's policy direction [4] - Economists predict that June's non-farm payrolls may increase by 110,000, with the unemployment rate slightly rising from 4.2% to 4.3% [4] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast, predicting the Fed will restart rate cuts in September, three months earlier than previously expected [4] Group 5 - Market expectations for a rate cut are growing, with factors such as weak consumer data and concerns over economic downturn influencing gold prices [5] - The anticipated weak employment data is expected to reinforce market expectations for a rate cut, putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar [5] - The gold price is expected to maintain a high level due to these economic factors, with a potential for high-level fluctuations [5] Group 6 - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified trading options, allowing for T+0 trading [6] - Long-term, gold's value is expected to rise with the expansion of credit money supply, serving as a hedge against tail risks in asset portfolios [6] - The performance of gold assets tends to be favorable during both overheated and recessionary economic cycles, making it a viable investment option [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, and changes in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a mixed outlook for gold prices and related investment vehicles [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 1, the gold ETF fund (159937) rose by 0.47% with a transaction volume of 238 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.85% [1]. - International spot gold prices have rebounded above $3,300 per ounce, with the latest quote at $3,314.68 per ounce, marking a 0.38% increase [2]. - COMEX gold futures are quoted at $3,327 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The gold market has been under pressure due to easing geopolitical conflicts and rising U.S. stock markets, which have increased risk appetite among investors [3]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade agreements with multiple countries are expected to be completed by September 1, which may influence market sentiment [3]. - Speculation about the potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump could impact monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Analysts suggest a mixed to bullish long-term outlook for gold, despite short-term technical weaknesses and market adjustments [5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [5]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation remains significant, with recommendations for investors to consider regular investments in gold ETFs [5].

Group 1 - International spot gold experienced a significant drop of $46.05, reaching $3322.93 per ounce, marking a decline of 1.37% and hitting a two-week low [1] - Spot silver also fell below the $36 mark, trading at $35.83 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold futures in China dropped by 1.10% to 772.22 yuan per gram, while major jewelry brands saw a decrease of 14 yuan to 998 yuan per gram, falling below the 1000 yuan threshold [1] Group 2 - The unexpected announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a rapid withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets, directly causing the drop in gold prices [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish stance on interest rates reduced the probability of a rate cut in September to below 35%, resulting in a stronger dollar index and increased holding costs for gold, further contributing to the price decline [3] Group 3 - Despite short-term pressures, the underlying logic for international spot gold remains unchanged, with ongoing geopolitical risks and a potential spike in oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, which could reignite demand for gold as a safe haven [4] - Global central bank gold reserves have risen to 22%, the highest level since 1965, with China increasing its holdings to 2300 tons over the past eight months, indicating a continued trend that may influence future gold prices [4] - The demand for silver is expected to remain robust, with projected photovoltaic silver consumption reaching 140 million ounces by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - As of June 24, the international spot gold price is $3352.85 per ounce, with a decline of 0.44% [1] - The highest price reached today was $3369.81 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures are priced at $3365.6 per ounce, down by 0.85% [1] - The trading volume for gold ETFs was 253 million yuan, with a decrease of 0.32% [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - A senior Iranian official confirmed Iran's acceptance of Qatar's mediation in the ceasefire proposal with Israel, as announced by U.S. President Trump [2] - As of the morning of June 24, no agreement on a ceasefire or cessation of military actions has been reached between Iran and Israel [3] - The Israeli military reported missile attacks from Iran, prompting local residents to seek shelter [3] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold - Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities led to a significant increase in gold prices, with spot gold opening nearly $23 higher on Monday [4] - The comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman regarding potential interest rate cuts have contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, which typically supports gold prices [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with nine other departments, issued a plan for the high-quality development of the gold industry, aiming for a 5% to 10% increase in gold resource volume by 2027 [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold ETFs provide a low-cost and diversified trading option, allowing for T+0 trading and aligning closely with domestic gold prices [5] - Long-term investment in gold is seen as a hedge against economic downturns, with recommendations for dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs [5] - Related gold stocks include companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, which are mentioned as examples of potential investments [5]