点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 根据Wind数据，2025年7月21日，江西钨精矿(65%)的价格达到了历史新高的18.25万元/吨，自2025年5月 13日以来，钨精矿价格屡创历史新高。 雅江水电项目拉动盾构用钨金属需求 7月19日雅江下游水电工程正式宣布开工，其总投资约为1.2万亿元，是三峡水电站的6倍。参考三峡水电工 程，需要TBM、盾构机等隧道掘进设备实现，而TBM、盾构机中使用大量钨金属。2024年硬质合金占钨 总需求量约59%，而矿用工具合金以及耐磨工具合金占硬质合金总需求约45%，因此矿用工具合金以及耐 磨工具合金用钨大约占钨总需求的26.33%，我们预计此次雅江下游水电工程将显著拉动这一部分的钨需 求。 钨未来需求有望实现多点开花 展望钨金属的未来需求 ...

2025 年 7 月 23 日 行业研究 雅江水电叠加战略价值重估，钨精矿价格屡创新高 ——钨行业点评报告 要点 事件：根据 Wind 数据， 2025 年 7 月 21 日，江西钨精矿(65%)的价格达到了历 史新高的 18.25 万元/吨，自 2025 年 5 月 13 日以来，钨精矿价格屡创历史新高。 雅江水电项目拉动盾构用钨金属需求。7 月 19 日雅江下游水电工程正式宣布开 工，其总投资约为 1.2 万亿元，是三峡水电站的 6 倍。参考三峡水电工程，需要 TBM、盾构机等隧道掘进设备实现，而 TBM、盾构机中使用大量钨金属。2024 年硬质合金占钨总需求量约 59%，而矿用工具合金以及耐磨工具合金占硬质合 金总需求约 45%，因此矿用工具合金以及耐磨工具合金用钨大约占钨总需求的 26.33%，我们预计此次雅江下游水电工程将显著拉动这一部分的钨需求。 钨未来需求有望实现多点开花。展望钨金属的未来需求情况，有数个非常具有潜 力的增长点。光伏钨丝：相较于传统高碳钢丝，钨丝的细径化潜力大，能够有效 降低硅片损耗，满足大尺寸、薄片化硅片切割要求；军工用钨：国防科工局最新 数据显示，2025 年 7 月军工材料 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of rare earth elements is highlighted, particularly in the context of the automotive industry and emerging technologies, with significant implications for supply chains and market dynamics [2][5][7]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Ford and Suzuki are struggling to secure necessary rare earth materials for production, leading to temporary factory shutdowns [2] - Indian automakers have reported critical shortages, with only three days of inventory left for rare earth magnets [2] - A coalition of major automotive manufacturers warns that a lack of stable supply of rare earth materials could halt production of essential components [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - North Rare Earth has seen a stock price increase of over 32% in July, reaching a two-year high following strong performance forecasts [2][3] - The company anticipates a net profit of 136 million to 176 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [3] Group 3: Strategic Value of Rare Earths - Rare earths are increasingly recognized as critical materials, transitioning from "industrial flavoring" to "technological vitamins" due to their essential role in high-tech applications [5][7] - The military sector relies heavily on rare earths for advanced weaponry, with significant investments from the U.S. government in domestic rare earth production [5][6] Group 4: Future Demand Projections - The demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is projected to reach 117,000 tons and 126,900 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 9.7% and 8.4% [8] - The expansion of the low-altitude economy and the rise of humanoid robots are expected to drive new demand for rare earth materials [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The modern energy sector in China is experiencing a strategic revaluation due to export controls on medium and heavy rare earths, leading to increased overseas prices and a widening domestic-international price gap, which is expected to drive domestic prices upward [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the China Modern Energy Index (932037) rose by 0.15%, with notable increases in component stocks such as China Rare Earth (000831) up 3.27% and Yunnan Aluminum (000807) up 2.39% [3]. - The China Modern Energy ETF (561790) has achieved a 0.19% increase, marking its seventh consecutive rise, with the latest price at 1.06 yuan [3]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The China Modern Energy ETF recorded a turnover rate of 6.87% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 3.334 million yuan [4]. - Over the past week, the ETF's average daily trading volume was 6.4563 million yuan, ranking it first among comparable funds [4]. Group 3: Fund Growth and Performance - The ETF has seen a significant growth of 6.8009 million yuan in scale over the past six months, placing it in the top third of comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's share count increased by 9 million shares in the same period, also ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.03% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 7 months, with an overall annual profit rate of 100% [4]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The China Modern Energy Index is currently valued at a historical low with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.41, which is below 95.4% of the time over the past year, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [5]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 51.18% of the total index weight, with significant contributors including Changjiang Electric (600900) and China Nuclear Power (601985) [5][7].