Core Viewpoint - Tungsten is a strategic resource for China, with significant global production and reserves, but the industry faces challenges due to low concentration and regulatory controls [4][5]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - In 2023, China's tungsten concentrate production accounted for 80.77% of global output, with reserves at 52.27%, both ranking first in the world [4]. - The industry concentration is low, with a CR4 of 43.94% and a CR6 of 55.87%, indicating a need for consolidation [4]. - Future tungsten supply is expected to tighten due to three main factors: ongoing regulatory controls, a decrease in over-extraction, and declining ore grades over time [5]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The domestic demand for tungsten in 2024 is projected to be split among hard alloys (58.51%), tungsten materials (22.61%), tungsten special steel (15.05%), and tungsten chemicals (3.83%) [6]. - The demand for tungsten in the military sector is anticipated to grow due to increased defense spending amid ongoing global conflicts [6]. - The photovoltaic sector is also a growth area, with tungsten wire usage expected to increase despite its smaller volume [6]. Group 3: Price and Market Impact - Short-term price increases in tungsten may lead to some substitution, but the overall demand impact is expected to be minimal [7]. - The supply-demand balance for tungsten is projected to remain tight, with supply deficits expected in the coming years: -3.78% in 2025, -4.61% in 2026, and -1.46% in 2027 for China [8]. - Global supply-demand gaps are also forecasted, indicating a sustained high price environment due to rising mining costs and environmental pressures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten price increase has led to higher costs for hard alloy tools, prompting manufacturers to raise prices, with expectations for growth in the industry, particularly in high-end sectors due to domestic substitution opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The hard alloy tool industry is experiencing a recovery after a period of consolidation, with increased growth expectations for the coming year, especially in high-end manufacturing sectors such as AI, humanoid robots, and semiconductor equipment [1]. - The demand for tools in emerging industries is rising, driven by technological breakthroughs, which is expected to boost sales of high-value-added products [1][4]. - The precision tool industry has a high user stickiness, with tool costs representing only 1%-4% of manufacturing costs, but their quality significantly impacts processing precision and product quality [4]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Financial Performance - Tool manufacturers, including Zhongtung High-tech, have implemented multiple price increases in 2025 to address rising raw material costs, with adjustments varying by product type based on cost structure and market conditions [2][3]. - In Q3, leading tool companies reported significant profit increases, with Huari Precision's net profit rising by 915.62% year-on-year, attributed to improved downstream demand and enhanced product performance [3]. - Other companies like Okoyi and Zhongtung High-tech also reported substantial profit growth in Q3, with net profits increasing by 69.31% and 36.53% respectively [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The domestic tool industry is expected to move away from previous low performance, showing signs of recovery, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors [3]. - The demand for tungsten remains strong, with expectations for prices to stay high, allowing companies to effectively transfer costs to downstream customers through price adjustments [5]. - The trend of domestic substitution in the high-end hard alloy tool market is gaining momentum, with emerging industry demand seen as a key opportunity for domestic companies to penetrate the high-end market by 2026 [5].

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，未来我国钨精矿供应持续收紧，需求根基稳健，亦有军工、 光伏等增长点。钨未来偏紧平衡的供需格局有望持续，叠加钨精矿开采成本的挺价，虽然钨精矿价格将 会出现一定回调，该行仍判断2026-2027年钨价将于高位运行。钨相关上市公司有望受益。 光大证券主要观点如下： 钨：我国唯二指标控制优势金属，但集中度偏低 钨是我国优势资源，2023年，我国钨精矿产量占全球比达80.77%;储量占全球比52.27%，均位列世界第 一。钨与稀土为我国目前唯二实行开采总量指标控制的金属矿产，与稀土相比，钨的另一大特点是集中 度偏低：2024年我国钨矿的产能CR4仅为43.94%，CR6仅为55.87%，与稀土行业的两大稀土集团相比， 行业集中度亟待提升。低行业集中度意味着小型钨矿企业遍布，更易出现钨矿的违规开采或是超采的现 象。 未来我国钨精矿供应持续收紧，逻辑有三 1、我国钨矿开采持续实行管控与指标配额制。2025年度第一批钨矿配额同比下降6.45%，长期看配额 呈放缓趋势;2、我国超采钨产量持续下降。2015年我国超采钨占产量比重为35.78%，2024年这一数字降 至12.63%;3、我国 ...

12月25日，沃尔德涨5.17%，截至发稿，报59.17元/股，成交4.97亿元，换手率5.80%，总市值89.32亿 元。 资料显示，北京沃尔德金刚石工具股份有限公司位于河北省廊坊市大厂潮白河工业园区工业二路东侧， 成立日期2006年8月31日，上市日期2019年7月22日，公司主营业务涉及从事超高精密和高精密超硬刀具 及超硬材料制品的研发、生产和销售业务。主营业务收入构成为：超硬刀具78.59%，硬质合金刀具 14.31%，超硬材料5.72%，其他1.38%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，汇添富基金旗下1只基金重仓沃尔德。汇添富中证2000ETF（159536）三季度持有股数3934 股，占基金净值比例为0.36%，位居第二大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约1.14万元。 汇添富中证2000ETF（159536）成立日期2023年9月13日，最新规模5380.93万。今年以来收益36.26%， 同类排名1248/4197；近一年收益31.85%，同类排名1333/4170；成立以来收益40.66%。 汇添富中证2000ETF（159536）基金经理为孙浩。 截至发稿，孙浩累计任职时间2年120天，现任 ...

稀有金属钨被誉为"工业牙齿"，今年以来价格出现明显上涨。根据Wind数据，2025年12月24日，黑钨 精矿价格报46.00万元/吨，较2024年12月31日的14.25万元/吨大幅上涨222.81%。 陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司高级投资顾问于晓明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："钨价上涨 主要是因为供给收缩与新兴需求爆发的共振形成供需缺口，钨作为战略资源价值凸显，我国钨业企业迎 来发展机遇。" 市场景气度被看好 钨因其具有熔点高、硬度高、密度高、导热性良好等特性被广泛应用于汽车、军工、航天航空、机械加 工、新能源、半导体等领域。 上海钢联电子商务股份有限公司铁合金事业部钨业分析师施佳在接受《证券日报》记者采访时分 析："今年以来的钨价上涨，一方面是因为钨精矿开采指标缩减，另一方面是由于全球新能源、军工、 半导体等领域的发展对钨的需求强劲。今年上半年，钨价缓步上行。自9月份以来，钨价大幅拉升。市 场经过了一段时间的成交消化后，原料库存依然偏低。12月份继续补涨，突破价格高点。" "在传统领域对钨的需求稳健增长的基础上，新兴领域市场需求爆发式突破。"苏商银行特约研究员张思 远向《证券日报》记者表示，"光伏产 ...

钨的新时代：四问钨价，牛市未央 20251209 摘要 中国钨精矿价格持续上涨，已突破 35 万元/吨，较年初上涨近 1.5 倍， 为历史高位的两倍。供需长期趋紧、国内供应压力及国内外需求增长是 主要驱动因素，对股票交易策略产生重要影响。 钨产业链中，APT 和钨粉价格对钨精矿价格传导顺畅，加工费显著上升。 一体化钨企如厦门钨业毛利率和净利润持续向好，刀具企业如欧科亿产 品价格亦有提升空间，财务数据表现积极。 钨产业链库存总体处于历史低位，APT 和碳化钨生产商库存显著下降。 一体化钨企采购力度持稳，刀具企业采购力度增强，预示未来 1-2 个季 度下游企业补库需求或将提升，影响企业运营。 中国钨出口政策（如出口管制）对供应产生影响，虽出口总量压制有限， 但出口结构向下游高附加值产品转移，强化了中国在全球市场的影响力， 支撑钨价牛市通道。 全球钨供给增速受限，中国面临矿石品位下降和环保趋严等问题，供应 持续紧张。中国加大进口以缓解压力，海外增量主要来自萨克斯坦与韩 国，但整体供需仍趋紧，影响未来市场。 Q&A 钨价在 2025 年持续上涨的原因是什么？ 2025 年钨价持续上涨，主要分为两波行情。第一波从 3 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may perceive cyclical goods as superior to technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10][4] - Historical analysis shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy leads to foreign capital inflows. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw price increases, suggesting that the RMB is likely to appreciate in 2026, prompting foreign capital to reassess Chinese assets [3][10][4] - The report forecasts that during past PPI recovery phases, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, with a clear positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability. It is expected that ROE for both markets will continue to improve in 2026 as PPI rises [4][10] - From the perspective of foreign capital's historical investment preferences, profitability is a crucial consideration. The report notes that changes in ROE are highly correlated with foreign ownership in various sectors, indicating that sectors with strong competitive advantages are likely to attract more foreign investment [10] - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets in 2025, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report identifies several sectors in Hong Kong that are expected to see ROE improvements in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry core assets), and cyclical sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from demand recovery and pricing power [10] - The report also notes that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public funds allocated to Hong Kong equities, indicating potential for further investment [10] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the knife industry, highlighting that rising costs and demand are driving price increases, with major manufacturers announcing price hikes due to surging tungsten prices. This trend is expected to lead to sustained performance improvements for knife companies [12][15][16] - The report indicates that the knife industry has experienced multiple rounds of price adjustments in response to raw material cost pressures, with the latest round occurring in November. The demand from the electric vehicle supply chain is providing strong support for the knife market [15][16] - The report notes that the profitability of knife manufacturers has improved significantly in Q3 2025, with companies reporting substantial year-on-year revenue and profit growth, driven by earlier price increases and low-cost inventory [15][16] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics may lead to a consolidation of the industry, as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs, potentially benefiting larger firms with stronger financial positions [15][16]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may expect cyclical goods to outperform technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10] - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy will attract foreign capital. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw significant gains [3][10] - The report forecasts that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks' ROE will continue to improve alongside the recovery of PPI growth, with A-share ROE stabilizing in Q3 2025 and Hong Kong stock ROE expected to stabilize by the end of 2024 [4][10] Industry Analysis - The report identifies key sectors in Hong Kong stocks that are likely to benefit from improved ROE in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry chain core assets), and cyclical sectors. It highlights that Hong Kong stocks are becoming increasingly attractive compared to A-shares due to better fundamentals and valuation discounts [10] - In 2025, foreign capital has been actively reassessing Chinese assets, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The report notes that the premium of A-shares over H-shares is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report also mentions that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with public funds showing a growing presence in the market [10] Market Trends - The report indicates that certain sectors, such as consumer staples, have underperformed for three consecutive years and may present investment opportunities in 2026. It also notes a recent increase in short-selling activity in the new consumption sector, suggesting potential volatility [10] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the tool manufacturing industry due to rising raw material costs, with significant price increases observed in hard alloy tools. This trend is expected to continue as demand from the electric vehicle supply chain remains strong [15][16] - The report concludes that the tool manufacturing sector is likely to see sustained performance improvements, driven by price adjustments and recovering profit margins as companies adapt to rising costs [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The tungsten price is expected to continue rising due to tightening supply and strategic pricing, with a significant increase in tungsten concentrate prices reported at 336,000 RMB/ton, up 135% year-to-date [3]. - The hard alloy tool industry has seen multiple price adjustments in 2025, with the latest round in November being the third this year, driven by rising raw material costs [3]. - The October tool price index showed a continued upward trend, with the index reaching 115.01 points, reflecting a 0.67% month-on-month increase, driven by strong demand from the new energy vehicle sector [3]. - Q3 results for tool manufacturers indicate a recovery in profits, with companies like Huari Precision and Oke Yi reporting significant year-on-year revenue and profit growth [3]. - The industry is expected to see a shift towards larger firms as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs and cash payment requirements [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with a notable reduction in mining quotas for 2025 and export controls from China contributing to price increases [3]. - Demand remains cautious but is supported by downstream essential needs, particularly in the precision machining sector [3]. Price Adjustments and Market Trends - The hard alloy tool industry has undergone three rounds of price adjustments in 2025, with the latest adjustments reflecting a broader industry trend rather than isolated incidents [3]. - The October tool price index indicates that cutting tools are a primary driver of price increases, supported by both cost pressures and demand from the new energy vehicle industry [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - Q3 performance for key companies shows significant profit recovery, with Huari Precision achieving a 44.49% year-on-year revenue increase and a 915.62% rise in net profit [3]. - The report highlights a potential consolidation in the industry, with larger firms likely to benefit from stronger financial positions and better access to raw materials [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the tool industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [1]. Core Insights - The price of tungsten has been driven up by both supply constraints and strategic pricing, with a significant increase in tungsten prices observed, with 65% black tungsten ore priced at 336,000 CNY per ton, up 135% from the beginning of the year [3]. - Tool manufacturers have implemented multiple price adjustments throughout the year due to rising raw material costs, with the latest adjustment being the third round in November [3]. - The tool price index continued to rise in October, driven by demand from the new energy vehicle industry and high raw material prices, with the tool price index reaching 115.01 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.67% [3]. - The profitability of tool companies has improved in Q3, with significant revenue and profit growth reported by companies such as Huari Precision and Oke Yi [3]. - The industry landscape is expected to improve as smaller manufacturers may be forced out due to rising raw material costs, benefiting larger companies with stronger financial capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with mining quotas significantly reduced for 2025, and export controls on strategic metals by China contributing to price increases [3]. - Demand remains cautious but is supported by downstream necessities, with the market showing a stable upward trend in tungsten prices [3]. Price Adjustments and Market Response - Tool manufacturers have raised prices multiple times this year, indicating a broader industry trend rather than isolated incidents [3]. - The October tool price index reflects strong performance, particularly in cutting tools, driven by both cost and demand factors [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - Q3 results show a recovery in profits for tool manufacturers, with notable revenue increases reported [3]. - The ongoing rise in raw material prices may lead to a consolidation in the industry, favoring larger firms with better resource management [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Focus on companies such as Huari Precision, Oke Yi, Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, World, and New Sharp [3].