Investment Rating - The report rates the bismuth industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - Short-term bismuth supply and demand are in a weak balance, with tight raw material supply supporting high prices, but weak exports and high inventory levels limit recovery space, leading to a potential price fluctuation in the short term. In the medium to long term, domestic environmental regulations will tighten, maintaining a tight supply of smelting raw materials, with supply growth expected to be only 2-4%. Meanwhile, demand from electronics, photovoltaic solder, and semiconductor thermoelectric materials is expected to grow at 8-10%, leading to a gradual convergence of supply surplus and a balanced state in the next 2-3 years [1][2][3]. Supply Side - China dominates global bismuth supply, accounting for 75% of the 23,940 tons produced in 2023. The expansion of production capacity is constrained by raw material shortages, with supply growth expected to be around 2-4% [2][25][26]. - The supply of refined bismuth is limited due to a continuous shortage of raw materials, particularly bismuth ore and recycling materials from lead and copper production. Current visible inventory levels are decreasing, indicating reduced inventory pressure [26][28]. Demand Side - Domestic bismuth consumption remains focused on traditional sectors, but high-tech demand from semiconductors and renewable energy is creating a second growth curve for bismuth. Overall consumption has been stable, with significant growth expected in electronics and semiconductors [2][31][34]. - China is the largest exporter of bismuth, with over 60% of bismuth metal used for export. Long-term export volumes are expected to return to normal levels, with a shift from metal bismuth to bismuth oxide exports [34]. Industry Development Trends - The bismuth industry is transitioning towards high-value-added products, with a focus on high-purity bismuth and advanced bismuth-based materials. There is a notable technological gap compared to Europe, the US, and Japan in high-end bismuth products [3][19]. - The report highlights the potential applications of bismuth in superconductors, nuclear reactor coolants, and electronic devices, indicating a strong future demand in high-tech fields [36][41][42].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Potassium is one of the three essential nutrients for crop growth, often referred to as "the grain of food" [2] - The global potassium fertilizer market is projected to reach USD 28.12 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% expected until 2033 [27] - The supply of potassium is dominated by a few major players, leading to a clear oligopoly in the industry [2][44] Industry Overview - Potassium is essential for crop growth, with a market size exceeding USD 100 billion [15] - The potassium resource is divided into solid potassium ores and potassium brine, with solid potassium ores being the majority [28] - Global potassium resources are unevenly distributed, with China holding only 4% of the world's reserves, leading to significant reliance on imports [2][53] Demand Analysis - Global potassium fertilizer demand is expected to grow steadily due to population increases, with an average annual growth rate of 2.67% projected from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Key regions driving demand include China, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, with specific agricultural practices increasing potassium usage [3][18] - By 2030, global potassium fertilizer demand is anticipated to reach 85.2 million tons [3] Supply Analysis - Capital expenditures for greenfield potassium projects are substantial, with development cycles typically ranging from 7 to 10 years [4] - Major projects, such as BHP's Jansen project, are expected to significantly increase global potassium production capacity [4][20] - If current projects are completed on schedule, global potassium production could reach 90.9 million tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.35% from 2024 to 2030 [4] Price Trends - Short-term price trends for potassium fertilizers are expected to be strong, influenced by supply constraints and high demand in key markets [5] - The price of potassium fertilizers is projected to face upward pressure until 2026, after which it may stabilize as new projects come online [5][26] - The long-term price will be supported by marginal costs, despite potential oversupply in the future [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the antimony industry, driven by increasing demand in various applications such as flame retardants and photovoltaic glass [4][21]. Core Insights - Antimony is recognized as a strategic mineral with significant market potential, particularly due to its applications in semiconductors, alloys, and flame retardant materials [4][14]. - The global antimony resource is highly concentrated in countries like China, Russia, and Bolivia, with China holding the largest reserves [12][13]. - China's implementation of export control policies in 2024 has led to a widening price gap between domestic and international markets [15][40]. - The market size of the antimony industry is projected to grow from 7.95 million tons in 2021 to 9.71 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.91% [37][38]. Summary by Sections Industry Definition - Antimony (Sb) is a silver-white metal with atomic number 51, widely used in various industrial applications, including semiconductors and flame retardants [5][6]. Industry Characteristics - The antimony industry is characterized by resource concentration, strategic importance, and policy sensitivity, particularly regarding export controls [12][15]. - As of 2024, global antimony reserves are estimated at 2.255 million tons, with China accounting for 670,000 tons, representing 29.7% of the total [13][14]. Development History - The modern development of the antimony industry has gone through three key phases, with China emerging as a dominant player since the 1990s [16][19]. Industry Chain Analysis - The antimony industry chain includes upstream mining, midstream processing, and downstream applications, with significant demand from the flame retardant and photovoltaic sectors [20][23]. Market Size and Growth - The antimony market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected decline in size from 8.98 million tons in 2025 to 8.30 million tons by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of -1.57% [37][40]. Policy Overview - Recent policies emphasize the importance of strategic minerals like antimony, focusing on resource security and sustainable development [43][45]. Competitive Landscape - The antimony mining sector in China is divided into three tiers, with leading companies like Hunan Gold and Huayu Mining at the forefront [46][50].