智通财经APP获悉，五矿证券发布研报称，短期看，铋供需呈弱平衡态势，原料供给偏紧是铋价高位运 行的重要支撑因素，但出口走弱以及高库存水平限制回暖空间，短期铋价或将维持震荡态势。中长期 看，随着国内环保形势趋紧，冶炼原料供应紧张局面难以改变，叠加库存水平仍较高，铋供给增速或仅 保持在2-4%左右;而随着电子及光伏焊料、半导体热电材料等应用需求的高增长，全球铋消费量增速或 达8-10%左右，供给过剩逐渐收敛，未来2-3年供需或达平衡状态。铋在超导、核工业等高科技领域的应 用突破，有望优化其需求结构，驱动长期价格中枢上移。 五矿证券主要观点如下： 中国供给端全球主导地位难以撼动，产能扩张瓶颈在于原料短缺。2023年全球铋产量23,940吨，中国产 量占比75%，占全球主导地位。美欧没有完全能够替代中国的铋进口来源。目前精铋冶炼原料持续紧 缺，限制产能扩张，且国内铋显性库存呈去库状态，库存压力减弱。未来铋供给或小幅上升，增量主要 来自大型有色冶炼企业和回收企业的铋产能提升，增长率约为2%-4%。 需求端 国内铋消费仍以传统领域为主，半导体等高科技需求打开铋第二增长曲线。2023年以来铋消费量整体稳 中有升，我国铋消费 ...

证券研究报告 [Table_ | 行业跟踪First] [Table_Main] 战略性矿产系列报告——铋：供需收 敛，半导体等需求打造第二增长曲线 报告要点 短期看，铋供需呈弱平衡态势，原料供给偏紧是铋价高位运行的重要支撑因 素，但出口走弱以及高库存水平限制回暖空间，短期铋价或将维持震荡态 势。中长期看，随着国内环保形势趋紧，冶炼原料供应紧张局面难以改变， 叠加库存水平仍较高，铋供给增速或仅保持在 2-4%左右；而随着电子及光 伏焊料、半导体热电材料等应用需求的高增长，全球铋消费量增速或达 8- 10%左右，供给过剩逐渐收敛，未来 2-3 年供需或达平衡状态。铋在超导、 核工业等高科技领域的应用突破，有望优化其需求结构，驱动长期价格中枢 上移。 铋为重要战略金属，广泛应用于医药、冶金、半导体等领域。铋位于元素周期 表第六周期 VA 族，具有一系列优良的物理化学特性，被美国、欧盟、日本等 列为战略性矿产，也是我国的关键矿产之一。2025 年 2 月，我国商务部、海 关总署公布对铋相关物项实施出口管制。铋行业的上游为采选冶炼，中游为 金属铋、铋基合金等铋产品加工，下游为冶金、医药化工、电子及半导体等应 用领域。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony market is expected to stabilize and rise due to anticipated export recovery, similar to trends observed in rare earths and tungsten [1] - The global antimony production from 2014 to 2024 is projected to have nearly zero growth, with China dominating global production at 70% [1][5] - Antimony demand in China has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% over the past five years, primarily driven by the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][5] - Current visible antimony inventory is at a five-year low of 3,000-4,000 tons, with hidden inventory cleared last year, reducing future inventory pressure [1][5] Core Insights - The antimony sector is expected to benefit from a risk-on sentiment in the industrial metals market due to a liquidity easing environment [2] - Export recovery is anticipated to drive a reversal in marginal demand, with low-price optimism potentially reversing in the near term [2] - The long-term outlook for antimony remains bullish, supported by supply-demand dynamics, inventory levels, and funding factors [2][5] Marginal Demand Analysis - A marginal demand table has been constructed to predict price reversals based on PV glass export and import data [3] - The table successfully predicted price reversals in October 2024, March 2025, and May 2025, correlating with changes in export volumes and marginal demand [3][4] Long-term Bull Market Factors - Supply-side constraints are evident, with a compound growth rate of only 0.16% in global antimony mining from 2014 to 2024 [5] - The domestic TPU production in China has decreased by 17% year-on-year, with imports down 48% [5] - Demand from the PV sector is expected to remain resilient despite potential short-term declines, supported by price control policies [5] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Huaxi Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining, with a specific recommendation for Yuguang Gold Lead due to its low valuation and significant by-product recovery [6] - Yuguang Gold Lead has seen a doubling in small metal recovery revenue and a quadrupling in gross profit since 2019, with stable costs [6] - The company is currently valued at less than 8 times earnings, presenting a potential investment opportunity if the antimony sector fully activates [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **metal industry**, particularly **strategic metals** and **new materials** for the first half of 2025, highlighting the revaluation of strategic metals and opportunities in new materials due to technological iterations [1][3][29]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Strategic Metals Pricing**: By mid-2025, the pricing of strategic metals has fully reflected actual metal prices, influenced by global uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies [1][3]. - **Focus on Key Metals**: Emphasis on rare earth magnets, tungsten, and antimony, which have strong domestic resource control [1][3]. - **Export Controls**: China has implemented export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium to counter U.S. technology restrictions, leading to significant price increases in overseas markets compared to domestic prices [1][6][9][11]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance is expected to improve gradually, potentially shifting from surplus to shortage, which will drive prices upward [2][12]. Specific Metal Insights - **Tungsten**: - The tungsten quota has decreased for two consecutive years due to resource depletion, with demand linked to macroeconomic conditions and growth in sectors like 3C and military, pushing prices to historical highs [4][15][16]. - Current tungsten prices exceed 170,000 yuan per ton, with production challenges due to low ore grades [14][15]. - **Antimony**: - Antimony market is strong, with domestic supply accounting for over 60% of global production. The photovoltaic industry is a major driver of demand, expected to grow as installation capacity expands [4][17][18]. - **Molybdenum**: - Molybdenum prices are expected to remain high due to stable production and lack of new mining projects, with demand primarily from stainless steel and special steel applications [19][22]. New Materials Sector - **Growth Opportunities**: The electronic and military sectors are highlighted as key areas for growth in new materials, driven by advancements in AI and electronic components [5][23][24]. - **Technological Upgrades**: The demand for upgraded electronic materials is increasing, particularly for components like capacitors and inductors, which require smaller particle sizes and higher performance [23][24]. Geopolitical and Market Impacts - **China's Dominance**: China holds a significant advantage in the smelting of strategic metals, with over 90% of rare earth separation occurring domestically, despite U.S. technology restrictions [1][10][11][12]. - **U.S. Dependency**: The U.S. remains highly dependent on China for strategic metals, with significant portions of its tungsten, antimony, and rare earth needs met by Chinese imports [11]. Emerging Trends - **Military Sector Recovery**: The military industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in aerospace, with increased demand for strategic metals [26]. - **New Applications**: The demand for tantalum, niobium, and titanium in high-temperature applications and aerospace is expected to grow, driven by advancements in technology and military needs [28]. Conclusion - The strategic metals market is poised for growth, supported by strong demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors. Companies in this sector, such as Jinchuan Group and Xiamen Tungsten, are recommended for their promising outlooks [29].

Core Viewpoint - Bismuth prices are rapidly increasing due to China's export controls, which have led to a significant supply shortage in the market, particularly affecting the electronics and medical industries [1][3]. Group 1: Price Increase and Supply Control - Bismuth prices in Europe have surged to approximately $45 per pound, up from just over $6 in late January, marking a sevenfold increase [1][3]. - China's share in global bismuth production is 81%, and the country has implemented export controls that resulted in zero exports of unprocessed bismuth in March [3]. - The export control measures were initiated as a response to U.S. tariffs, with a reported 80% decrease in unprocessed bismuth exports in February compared to the previous month [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Alternatives - The market is currently relying on existing inventories to meet demand, and there are discussions about sourcing bismuth from countries outside of China to mitigate supply risks [3]. - Japan, which accounts for 3% of global bismuth production, is considering increasing its output to satisfy demand [3]. Group 3: Broader Export Control Trends - China is tightening export controls on various critical minerals, including gallium and germanium, with plans to extend these measures to antimony and certain rare earths in the coming years [4]. - The tightening of export controls is raising concerns among market participants about potential rapid price increases for related resources [4]. Group 4: Bismuth in Other Applications - Bismuth is also popular in the mineral collecting community due to its unique crystallization properties and rainbow-like appearance when heated and cooled [5]. - There is a growing interest in home-based bismuth crystal production, with materials available for purchase online, although current prices for ornamental bismuth have not yet increased [6].

Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - The company, Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd., has a registered gold reserve of 150.38 tons, with 75 tons located in the Liaoshang Gold Mine [2] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 956,585,166.29 from metals including zinc, antimony, bismuth, and selenium [14] - The average sales price of sulfuric acid in 2024 was CNY 131.81 per ton, with Q1 2025 averaging CNY 285.37 per ton [14] Group 2: Operational Challenges and Developments - The expansion of the Liaoshang Gold Mine is progressing slowly due to various reasons, with no specific timeline provided for resolution [3] - The integration of Qixia Jinxing is also facing delays, with the company working on measures and a timeline to address the issues [3] - The company has invested CNY 155,568.14 million in the multi-metal project, with a progress rate of 71.04% as of December 31, 2024 [5] Group 3: Shareholder Concerns and Corporate Governance - There are ongoing concerns regarding the competition issue with the controlling shareholder, Jiangxi Copper, particularly regarding the unfulfilled asset injection commitment made six years ago [4] - The company has communicated with the controlling shareholder about the transfer of mining rights, which is crucial for resolving the competition issue [8] - As of May 9, 2025, the number of shareholders is reported to be 46,938 [14] Group 4: Future Projections and Strategic Plans - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and profit increase in 2025, although specific percentage targets were not disclosed [4] - The Liaoshang Gold Mine is projected to commence production in 2027, subject to various regulatory and construction factors [11] - The company is exploring options for the gradual divestment of its long-term holdings in the Hong Kong-listed Wan Guo Gold project, which has not met expectations for stable raw material supply [3]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a strong opening in May, with significant gains across major indices and sectors, particularly in gold and aviation stocks, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1][2][4]. Market Performance - On May 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.84%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.97% [2]. - The total trading volume reached 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 171.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Highlights - Gold concept stocks saw substantial gains, with East Jiang Environmental Protection and Lai Shen Tong Ling hitting the daily limit, and several other gold-related stocks rising over 5% [5][6]. - The price of spot gold reached a high of $3,387.09 per ounce, leading to an increase in domestic gold jewelry prices [6]. Company Specifics - East Jiang Environmental Protection reported a net loss of 146 million yuan in Q1, an improvement from a loss of 156 million yuan in the same period last year. The company focuses on resource utilization and recycling of precious metals [12][24]. - Shandong Molong's A-shares and H-shares both surged, with the A-shares hitting the daily limit and H-shares increasing by nearly 200% during trading [21][22]. The company recently had its risk warning lifted and was included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [24]. Aviation Sector - The aviation sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Huaxia Airlines and China Eastern Airlines rising over 5% [14][15]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported that domestic travel during the May Day holiday reached 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, indicating a recovery in travel demand [18][19]. - Analysts expect that falling oil prices will support airline performance, and there is optimism regarding the impact of consumption policies on aviation demand [20].

Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Domestic economy is entering a peak season post-Spring Festival, with demand expected to rise due to resumption of work and production[6] - Significant price increases observed in certain commodities, with some rising over 8% since the Spring Festival, including small metals (antimony, bismuth, cobalt), rare earths, and chemical products[6] - Stock prices in certain sectors have already reflected these price expectations, particularly in small metals, influenced by overseas geopolitical events and domestic export controls[6] Investment Opportunities - Recommended focus on chemical products, rare earths, and agricultural products due to price increases, with notable stock price movements: sulfur (53.4% price increase vs. 14.9% stock price increase), bismuth (80.2% vs. 17.4%), and cobalt (57% vs. 18%)[6] - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals (cobalt, bismuth, antimony, tin, rare earths, copper) and new energy sectors like lithium iron phosphate batteries[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected global economic fluctuations, uncertainties in U.S. tariffs and monetary policies, and escalated Sino-U.S. trade tensions[6] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding policy implications and market dynamics, as well as the potential for data discrepancies and subjective assessments[6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The prices of small metals continue to rise under export controls, with a need to monitor policy changes and details in the future [20] - Nickel prices have increased, with tight current shipments and optimistic downstream demand, while supply constraints remain [20][21] - Cobalt prices have surged significantly due to supply tightening, especially following the Democratic Republic of Congo's export suspension [24][25] - Bismuth prices are on the rise due to tight raw material supply and export controls, with a focus on future policy developments [28][29] - Indium prices have increased mainly due to market sentiment rather than fundamental changes, driven by China's export controls [32][34] - Antimony prices have also risen, with significant discrepancies between domestic and international prices, influenced by export restrictions [39][40] Summary by Sections Nickel Industry - As of March 14, LME nickel settled at $16,450 per ton, up 2.49% from March 7, with total LME nickel inventory at 200,580 tons, a 1.04% increase [20] - Domestic nickel iron production is low, and the recovery of production lines in Indonesia is limited, leading to a tight supply situation [20][21] Cobalt Industry - As of March 14, electrolytic cobalt reached 248,500 yuan per ton, a 17.77% increase from March 7, with significant demand from downstream sectors [24] - The Democratic Republic of Congo's suspension of cobalt exports is expected to significantly impact global supply [25][27] Bismuth Industry - Bismuth ingot prices ranged from 152,000 to 157,000 yuan per ton as of March 14, with tight raw material supply affecting production [28][29] - Export controls implemented by China are expected to support future price increases [28] Indium Industry - The average price of refined indium was 2,975 yuan per kilogram as of March 14, reflecting a 7.21% increase from March 7, driven by sentiment rather than supply changes [32][34] - China's export controls are anticipated to support indium prices in the future [34] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices reached 180,000 yuan per ton, a 5.88% increase from March 7, with significant price differences between domestic and international markets [39][40] - Export restrictions are expected to continue influencing antimony prices upward [42]

Group 1 - The article highlights various industry malpractices exposed during the CCTV "3·15" gala, including issues with sanitary products, high-interest electronic loans, and privacy violations [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is intensifying efforts to combat false information in the stock market, focusing on early and severe penalties for violators [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has announced a significant increase in product quality inspections, particularly for items posing safety risks [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the increased openness to foreign investment in China's service sector, with actual foreign investment reaching 120.49 billion yuan in the first two months of the year, accounting for over 70% of total foreign investment [5] - A new national food safety reporting system is set to launch in May, aimed at improving internal reporting channels for food safety violations [5] - The "National Consumer Association Smart 315 Platform" has been launched to enhance consumer engagement and address issues related to smart technology [5] Group 3 - Insurance companies have been actively increasing their stakes in listed companies, with seven companies being targeted this year, primarily in the banking sector [9] - Strategic metals have seen a price surge, particularly antimony and cobalt, leading to significant gains in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector [9] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is conducting targeted visits to listed companies to provide support and address their concerns [9] Group 4 - The article notes that the CSRC has issued administrative penalties for stock manipulation, with fines totaling approximately 2.8 billion yuan for one individual and 1.8 billion yuan for another [10] - Airlines have issued warnings regarding third-party sales practices that violate passenger rights, including excessive fees for ticket changes [10] - The article mentions the exposure of a new financial scam involving mobile phone lotteries, with specific companies being named [10] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is investigating companies involved in illegal marketing practices, particularly those using automated calls for promotions [17] - The Central Internet Information Office is promoting digital rural development to enhance agricultural productivity and digital literacy [17] - The State Administration for Market Regulation reported a significant increase in product recalls, with 1,100 instances in 2024, a 42.7% increase from the previous year [17] Group 6 - The article highlights the successful launch of a large unmanned transport aircraft in China, which is expected to be operational by 2026 [18] - The completion of a major energy storage project marks a significant advancement in the integration of renewable energy sources [18] - The article discusses the investigation into a company involved in the production of substandard sanitary products, leading to regulatory actions [18]