丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何看待房价的周期位置？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 全局维度，房价近四年来调整相对充分，已基本消化过往累积的超涨成分，后续下行压力将逐 步减小，但止跌有赖于良性通胀和进一步降息。结构层面，由于估值压力、收入预期、调整时 空等因素的不同，各能级城市房价有所分化，其中，高能级城市补跌压力较大，近期跌幅明显 更大。大城市内部，一是核心区域新房和二手价格的分化，新房补涨、二手补跌，土地要素的 市场价值在限价时代明显被低估，级差地租正在显性化，新房较周边二手也将体现折旧、品质、 得房率和稀缺性等溢价；二是核心和远郊的分化，与海外一线相比，房价压力主要体现在远郊。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 [Table_Title 如何看待房价的周期位置？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期曾有所提振，但 4 月以来边际下行压力再次加大， 产业政策宽松概率逐步提高，后续 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the real estate industry, specifically analyzing global housing price cycles and their implications for the Chinese market [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Asset Price Perspective**: The analysis of housing prices should prioritize asset price perspectives over supply-demand dynamics, especially in large economies like China where financial cycles significantly impact housing prices [1][2]. - **Historical Data Importance**: The study emphasizes the importance of data from after 1970, as the modern monetary system has introduced new patterns in real estate cycles [5][6]. - **Classification of Housing Cycles**: The report categorizes global real estate cycles into three types: - Conventional cycles (decline < 20%) - Small bubbles (decline 20%-35%) - Large bubbles (decline > 35%) [10]. - **Independence of Price Movements**: Historical data indicates that the processes of price increases and decreases are largely independent, with no strong correlation between them [11]. - **Duration of Price Cycles**: - Conventional cycles rebound in about 2 years - Small bubbles take approximately 4.5 years - Large bubbles may take around 6 years [12]. - **Current Trends in China**: Since Q2 2021, Chinese housing prices have been declining. If this is a large bubble, prices could drop by about 40% by Q3 2027. If it is a small bubble, the decline may last until the end of 2025 [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Financial Policies**: The relationship between real estate cycles and financial systems is crucial, with significant differences observed before and after 1970 due to changes in monetary policy [5][7]. - **Limitations of Historical Cases**: The cases of Japan in 1990 and the U.S. in 2008 are deemed less relevant for current analyses due to their unique historical contexts and extreme conditions [6][7]. - **Use of Real vs. Nominal Prices**: The report advocates for the use of real housing price data, which excludes CPI growth, to better reflect asset value changes during economic crises [8]. - **Factors Influencing Recovery**: The recovery of housing prices in different economies is influenced by various factors, including fiscal and monetary policies, which can significantly alter the trajectory of real estate markets [16][20]. - **Indicators for Market Assessment**: The report suggests that nominal prices may indicate a stop in price decline earlier than real prices, but emphasizes the need for direct observation of actual price movements for accurate predictions [17][18]. Conclusion - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the real estate market, highlighting the importance of understanding housing price cycles through an asset price lens, the implications of financial policies, and the need for careful consideration of historical data in predicting future trends.