Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in Shenzhen for the year 2025 Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing a contraction in new housing supply, with a total of 1,811 units sold from August 1 to 26, 2025, which is a reflection of high inventory pressure and traditional seasonal fluctuations [3] - The second-hand housing market shows a year-on-year increase of 16.07%, with 3,619 units sold by August 26, 2025, indicating stabilization supported by policy expectations and demand [4] - The land market in Shenzhen saw three residential land transactions in August, with significant competition among major developers, highlighting the resilience of core assets [5][6][7] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - From August 1 to 26, 2025, Shenzhen's new housing transactions totaled 1,811 units, equating to 18.32 million square meters, with new listings at 1,384 units or 15.00 million square meters [3] - The market is influenced by policy adjustments and economic recovery, with core areas like Nanshan and Futian showing strong sales performance [3] Second-Hand Housing Market - As of August 26, 2025, the second-hand housing market recorded 3,619 transactions, totaling 36.11 million square meters, reflecting a 16.07% increase year-on-year [4] - Despite signs of stabilization, high inventory levels and downward price pressures remain challenges for buyers [4] Land Market - In August, three residential land parcels were sold, with notable transactions including a low-density residential site in Bao'an District sold for 1.215 billion yuan, translating to a floor price of approximately 20,364 yuan per square meter [5] - Another significant transaction involved a site in Longhua District sold for 1.789 billion yuan, with a floor price of 35,030 yuan per square meter, indicating a premium of 15.12% [5] - The land market is characterized by a competitive landscape among top developers, with a focus on core asset acquisition and innovative development strategies [7] Sales Performance of Top Real Estate Companies - The top 20 real estate companies in Shenzhen achieved a total sales amount of 114.903 billion yuan from January to August 2025, accounting for 59.11% of the city's total sales [13] - The leading company, Hongrongyuan, reported sales of 16.114 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Shekou with 10.753 billion yuan [14] - The report categorizes companies into three segments based on sales volume, with the top segment (over 10 billion yuan) comprising two companies, while the majority fall into the lower segments [15]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market shows a clear recovery trend in the first quarter of this year, with the future heat of the land market dependent on five key factors: improvement of the financing environment, stability of new housing transaction volume, effective inventory reduction, transformation of sales models under new real estate paradigms, and optimization of land supply rules [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financing Environment - The financing environment directly influences the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land, with a relatively loose financing environment currently aiding market stabilization [6]. - The real estate financing landscape has undergone significant adjustments, transitioning from a high-leverage model to a more regulated environment, with a focus on standardized financing methods [6][7]. - As of the end of April 2024, the balance of real estate development loans was 13.56 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, supported by both the extension of existing financing and new investments from the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism [7]. Group 2: New Housing Market Transaction Volume - The new housing market serves as a barometer for the land market, with a notable recovery in the first quarter of 2025, where new housing transaction area in major cities increased by 6% year-on-year [8]. - However, the momentum in the new housing market weakened in the second quarter, leading to potential pressure on the land market's continued growth [8][9]. - In the first five months of 2025, cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw significant year-on-year increases in new housing transaction areas, with growth rates of 13% and 106%, respectively [8]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Inventory - The total inventory of commercial housing remains high, with a pending sale area of 77.427 million square meters as of May 2025, although it has decreased by 7.15 million square meters over three months [10]. - Different cities exhibit varying inventory clearance cycles, with cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai having a clearance cycle of less than 12 months, indicating a more active land market [10]. Group 4: New Sales Models - The implementation of a current housing sales system is a crucial reform aimed at enhancing product quality and optimizing market supply-demand dynamics [11][12]. - The shift towards current housing sales is expected to lower purchasing risks for buyers and test the financial strength and product quality of real estate companies [12]. Group 5: Land Supply Rules - Land supply is being adjusted through total volume reduction, structural optimization, and innovative rules to align with market changes and promote high-quality industry development [13][14]. - Many cities have significantly reduced land supply plans, with some cities like Dongguan and Yantai seeing reductions exceeding 40% [13]. - Innovations in land transaction rules, such as flexible payment options and streamlined approval processes, are being piloted in various regions to enhance the attractiveness of land development [14].