证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 18 日 招商证券丨总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20251214） 研究部/总量研究 财政政策方面，这次会议明确提出保持"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量"，预计明年的预算赤字率、新增政府债务规模等指标将维持现有 水平。货币政策方面，这次会议要求货币政策要将稳增长、促通胀两个任务 作为主要目标，再次提到运用降准降息等政策工具，预计明年货币政策将继续 调整政策利率、结构性政策工具利率以及法定存款准备金率。 明年经济工作共有八项重点工作，比去年少了一项，主要是将城乡工作和区 域协调两项工作合二为一。从顺序来看，防风险工作从去年的第六项后移 推荐（维持） 相关报告 q 【宏观 张一平】中央经济工作会议解读 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家 主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。 形势判断：老问题、新挑战仍然不少。老问题主要在两个方面：其一，外部 环境变化影响加深。其二，重点领域风险隐患较多。新挑战指国内供强需弱矛 盾突出。去年对形势的判断虽然也强调国内需求不足，但没有指出供给偏强的 问题，反而认为 ...

会议定调宽松，政 策托底钢需 热卷周报 2025/12/13 (黑色研究员) 0775-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 (联系人) 从业资格号：F03133652 周度评估及策略推荐 成本端 期现市场 利润库存 供应端 需求端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 成本端：热卷高炉利润为-51元/吨，热卷高炉毛利水平偏低，现货升水约57元/吨，估值中性。 | | 交易策略建议 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 策略类 型 | 操作建议 | 盈亏 比 | 推荐周期 | 核心驱动逻辑 | 推荐等级 | 首次提出时间 | | 观望 | 观望 | - | - | - | - | - | ◆ 供应端：本周热轧板卷产量309万吨，较上周环比变化-5.6万吨，较上年单周同比约-2.6%，累计同比约+1.8%。 本周铁水日均产量为229.2万吨，本周铁水回落幅度略超预期，热卷产量稍有回落。 ◆ 需求端：本周热轧板卷消费312万吨，较上周环比变化-2.9万 ...

中央经济工作会议是确定未来一年工作重点和方向的会议，对经济走势和资本市 场走势具有关键影响，因而受到广泛关注。而 2025 年 12 月 11 日公布的今年中 央经济工作会议全文，是判断明年经济工作重点的重要窗口。 坚持稳中求进，做好统筹工作。相对于去年，今年会议对经济的判断更为乐观，相 对于去年强调国内需求不足、部分企业生产经营困难等，今年会议表述为经济发 展中老问题、新挑战依然不少……国内供强需弱矛盾突出。对明年政策的总基调 继续确定为稳中求进，同时要求统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争、统筹发展和 安全等。作为"十五五"开局之年，明年需要实现良好开局。 货币政策需更注重经济稳定与物价，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。货 币政策方面，会议定调依然是适度宽松，这与去年中央经济工作会议一致。但将经 济增长和稳定物价放在更为重要位置。会议要求把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理 回升作为货币政策的重要考量。这意味着在当前物价相对偏低压力之下，货币政 策可能加大宽松，以推动物价的回升。在具体政策方面强调灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具。虽然去年中央经济工作会议也有适时降准降息的表述，今年 表述并未更积极，但考虑到当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is stabilizing due to supportive policies, despite some fluctuations in the market this year [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes from January to October has decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but cities like Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Xiamen have shown growth in transactions [1] - The decline in new housing sales has narrowed, with sales area and sales revenue down by 6.8% and 9.6% respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [1] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has continued to decrease, with a reduction of 3.22 million square meters in October, marking eight consecutive months of decline [1] Group 2: Financial Conditions of Real Estate Companies - The funding situation for real estate companies has improved, with the year-on-year decline in funds received narrowing by 9.5 percentage points compared to last year [2] - The second-hand housing market has become more active, with a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area, and second-hand homes now account for 44.8% of total transactions [2] Group 3: Policy Measures and Local Initiatives - Various regions have implemented targeted policies to stimulate the market, such as reducing purchase restrictions in major cities and providing subsidies for home purchases [3] - The "guaranteed delivery of homes" initiative has achieved a 99% delivery rate for 3.96 million units, enhancing buyer confidence [2] - The real estate market is undergoing a transition, with a need for time to adjust, and the focus is on developing a new model for high-quality growth in the sector [3]

Group 1 - The global economy shows significant resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, driven by AI transformation, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [9] - China aims for resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, focusing on self-reliance in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI, while facing challenges such as demand fluctuations and a declining real estate market [12] - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariff impacts, but it can avoid recession, with core CPI inflation projected to drop below 2% by 2026 [15] Group 2 - The Asian economy (excluding Japan) presents mixed growth prospects, with a strong performance in the tech sector but challenges in non-tech sectors due to high tariffs on labor-intensive industries [19] - The Chinese internet sector's focus will remain on AI strategies and competition in the instant retail space, with expectations of reduced competitive intensity in the fourth quarter [22][23] - China is increasingly developing a self-sufficient AI supply chain, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on enhancing operational efficiency through large language models [26] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and real estate market support, with stable performance in the onshore stock market and steel-related commodities [30] - The A-share market's future growth will be driven by policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades, despite high valuations and the need for confirmed improvements in fundamentals [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a focus on selecting quality state-owned enterprise developers in the real estate sector [7][44]. Core Views - The new housing sales volume has seen a significant year-on-year decline, with a drop of 44.2% in the latest week, contrasting with a previous increase of 36.7% [1][14]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for commercial housing has increased, indicating a growing supply relative to demand [3][25]. - Land transaction volumes have decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 80.5% in the latest week [4][32]. - Recent policy changes, such as the increase in housing provident fund loan limits in Nanjing, are aimed at stimulating the market [5][40]. Summary by Sections New Housing Sales and Land Transactions - The total new housing sales volume in 30 major cities reached 1.22 million square meters, down 44.2% year-on-year [1][14]. - In first-tier cities, cumulative new housing sales volumes have shown a narrowing of growth or an expansion of declines, with Beijing down 5.0% and Shanghai down 0.4% [2][17]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities is at 104.2, up from 94.7 year-on-year, indicating a higher supply relative to sales [3][25]. - Land transaction volumes in 100 major cities fell to 698,000 square meters, down 80.5% year-on-year [4][32]. Policy and Market Developments - Nanjing has raised the maximum housing provident fund loan limit from 500,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan per individual, effective until December 31, 2027 [5][40]. - The report notes that the market will likely refocus on the execution of existing supportive policies and the introduction of new measures following the holiday period [7][44]. Stock Performance - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the broader market by 3.2 percentage points [6][42]. - The report highlights specific stocks such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development as key focuses for investment [8][45].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in Shenzhen for the year 2025 Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing a contraction in new housing supply, with a total of 1,811 units sold from August 1 to 26, 2025, which is a reflection of high inventory pressure and traditional seasonal fluctuations [3] - The second-hand housing market shows a year-on-year increase of 16.07%, with 3,619 units sold by August 26, 2025, indicating stabilization supported by policy expectations and demand [4] - The land market in Shenzhen saw three residential land transactions in August, with significant competition among major developers, highlighting the resilience of core assets [5][6][7] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - From August 1 to 26, 2025, Shenzhen's new housing transactions totaled 1,811 units, equating to 18.32 million square meters, with new listings at 1,384 units or 15.00 million square meters [3] - The market is influenced by policy adjustments and economic recovery, with core areas like Nanshan and Futian showing strong sales performance [3] Second-Hand Housing Market - As of August 26, 2025, the second-hand housing market recorded 3,619 transactions, totaling 36.11 million square meters, reflecting a 16.07% increase year-on-year [4] - Despite signs of stabilization, high inventory levels and downward price pressures remain challenges for buyers [4] Land Market - In August, three residential land parcels were sold, with notable transactions including a low-density residential site in Bao'an District sold for 1.215 billion yuan, translating to a floor price of approximately 20,364 yuan per square meter [5] - Another significant transaction involved a site in Longhua District sold for 1.789 billion yuan, with a floor price of 35,030 yuan per square meter, indicating a premium of 15.12% [5] - The land market is characterized by a competitive landscape among top developers, with a focus on core asset acquisition and innovative development strategies [7] Sales Performance of Top Real Estate Companies - The top 20 real estate companies in Shenzhen achieved a total sales amount of 114.903 billion yuan from January to August 2025, accounting for 59.11% of the city's total sales [13] - The leading company, Hongrongyuan, reported sales of 16.114 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Shekou with 10.753 billion yuan [14] - The report categorizes companies into three segments based on sales volume, with the top segment (over 10 billion yuan) comprising two companies, while the majority fall into the lower segments [15]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility with the ChiNext index dropping over 2.5% during the session [2] - Major indices closed in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3828.11 (-0.65%), Shenzhen Component at 13209.00 (-1.76%), and the ChiNext at 3151.53 (-2.60%) [1][2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.17%), Environmental Protection (+0.38%), and Public Utilities (+0.35%) [1] - Conversely, the weakest sectors were Computer (-3.26%), Electronics (-2.75%), and Media (-2.65%) [1] Investment Insights - The report highlights a robust performance of the basic pension insurance fund, which has reached an investment operation scale of 2.6 trillion, doubling since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - The average annual investment return of the pension fund stands at 5.15%, indicating effective value preservation and growth [3] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to show a trend of oscillating upward rather than a one-sided increase, with a focus on whether growth policies can effectively translate into improved corporate earnings [4] - Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), Public Utilities, Non-ferrous Metals, and Financials [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate market policies are continuously tightening, creating investment opportunities in building materials. Recent policies from the central bank and local governments aim to support home purchases and improve safety in construction sites, indicating a shift towards a balanced supply-demand dynamic in the real estate market [3][4] - Recommended stocks in the consumer building materials sector include Sankeshu (channel penetration and retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader with optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations with a significant retail business), and Jianlang Wujin. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader with diversified expansion in coatings and waterproof sectors) [3] - The report also notes that the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry, aiming to control cement clinker capacity to around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, which is expected to accelerate the iteration of energy-saving and efficient equipment [3][4] Market Performance - The building materials index increased by 2.41% in the week from June 23 to June 27, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.95%, resulting in a 0.46 percentage point advantage [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index has risen by 0.88%, while the building materials index has decreased by 3.79%, indicating a 4.67 percentage point underperformance [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has increased by 13.29%, while the building materials index has only risen by 7.19%, showing a 6.11 percentage point underperformance [4][13] Cement Sector - As of June 27, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 284.72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.47% month-on-month. The price trends varied by region, with Northeast China seeing a significant drop of 21.95% [6][24] - The clinker inventory ratio reached 69.36%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points from the previous month [6][25] Glass Sector - The report indicates that the spot price of float glass as of June 27, 2025, was 1200.53 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13%. The inventory of float glass decreased by 2.51%, with a total of 59 million weight boxes [6][75] - The average price of photovoltaic glass was 120.70 yuan/weight box, down by 3.44% [6][78] Fiberglass Sector - The report notes that the price of fiberglass remains stable, with various types of fiberglass priced between 3400 to 6600 yuan/ton depending on the type and region [6][3] Consumer Building Materials - The report tracks the prices of key raw materials for consumer building materials, noting slight fluctuations. For instance, the price of asphalt remained stable at 4520 yuan/ton, while the price of acrylic acid increased by 1.87% to 6825 yuan/ton [6][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock", and for coking coal is also "shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran has caused the price of crude oil to rise. Coking coal, as an energy-related variety, indirectly benefits and rises under the narrative of rising energy costs. However, the deterioration of the Middle East situation may also drag down the global economic recovery, so its medium - to - long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear. In China, the social financing performance in May was weaker than expected, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased. The supply - demand gap further narrowed, which is expected to boost the price level. The State Council executive meeting mentioned promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also policies such as disguised price cuts through housing purchase coupons in some cities. The implementation time of crude steel production restrictions is uncertain, and currently, steel mills have sufficient profits and lack the motivation to cut production. Overall, the economic data in May was weak, but the market reaction was positive after the data was released on the 16th, and the real estate sector rose significantly. In a situation of extremely low valuations, reverse trading increased, and the bottom is gradually taking shape [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices stopped falling, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 868 yuan/ton (+8), and the active contract was reported at 790.5 yuan/ton (+1). The basis was 97.5 yuan/ton (+7), and the September - January spread was - 25 yuan/ton (-7.5) [2] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Mines and coal washing plants started to resume production. The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 61.34% (+3.98), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [2] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory increased, and downstream inventory decreased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 486.04 million tons (+5.31), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 251.47 million tons (+6.41), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons (+3.07), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 669.53 (-21), and the port inventory was 312.02 million tons (-1) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices were weak, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract was reported at 1375 yuan/ton (+9.5). The basis was - 9 yuan/ton (-9.5), and the September - January spread was - 28 yuan/ton (-5.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Supply decreased, and demand remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average pig iron output was 241.61 million tons (-0.19) [3] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventory continued to decrease. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 87.31 million tons (-1.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.84 million tons (-2.96), and the port inventory was 203.09 million tons (-11.06) [3] Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to an increase in the price of crude oil, and coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits. However, the impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal prices in the medium - to - long - term is unclear. Domestically, although the economic data in May was weak, the market reaction was positive, and the bottom is gradually taking shape. For coking coal, the resumption of production in coal washing plants and mines this week confirmed that the previous production cuts were mainly passive due to safety and environmental protection. The coal washing plants have started to reduce inventory, and it is likely that mines will also reduce inventory in the future. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The previous decline has pushed the cost to the limit, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The production capacity of coking enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, and the supply - demand situation of coke has improved marginally [4][5][6]