今年以来，各地区各部门加快出台实施各项支持性政策，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，推动房地产 市场止跌回稳。当前房地产市场虽有所波动，但政策成效仍在继续显现。 全国房地产市场交易总量保持基本稳定。住房和城乡建设部数据显示，今年1月至10月，全国新建商品 房和二手房交易总量同比下降1.9%。其中，深圳、武汉、厦门、沈阳、南昌、南宁、贵阳、昆明等城 市新房和二手房网签交易总量同比均保持增长。这意味着今年以来住房成交总量和去年同期相比保持基 本稳定，没有出现明显收缩，各地因城施策采取的止跌回稳举措持续发挥作用。 商品房销售降幅收窄。国家统计局数据显示，今年1月至10月，全国新建商品房销售面积和销售额同比 分别下降6.8%和9.6%，降幅比去年同期分别收窄9个和11.3个百分点，与去年全年相比也有所改善。 商品房去库存持续推进。各地控增量、优存量政策发挥作用，10月末全国商品房待售面积75606万平方 米，比9月末减少322万平方米，今年以来连续8个月减少。 一些地区从供需两端因城施策，取得较好效果。有些地区取消或调减限制性措施，如北京、上海、深圳 调减了住房限购政策，重庆、苏州取消了限售政策；有些地区实施购房补贴，如 ...

Group 1 - The global economy shows significant resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, driven by AI transformation, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [9] - China aims for resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, focusing on self-reliance in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI, while facing challenges such as demand fluctuations and a declining real estate market [12] - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariff impacts, but it can avoid recession, with core CPI inflation projected to drop below 2% by 2026 [15] Group 2 - The Asian economy (excluding Japan) presents mixed growth prospects, with a strong performance in the tech sector but challenges in non-tech sectors due to high tariffs on labor-intensive industries [19] - The Chinese internet sector's focus will remain on AI strategies and competition in the instant retail space, with expectations of reduced competitive intensity in the fourth quarter [22][23] - China is increasingly developing a self-sufficient AI supply chain, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on enhancing operational efficiency through large language models [26] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and real estate market support, with stable performance in the onshore stock market and steel-related commodities [30] - The A-share market's future growth will be driven by policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades, despite high valuations and the need for confirmed improvements in fundamentals [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a focus on selecting quality state-owned enterprise developers in the real estate sector [7][44]. Core Views - The new housing sales volume has seen a significant year-on-year decline, with a drop of 44.2% in the latest week, contrasting with a previous increase of 36.7% [1][14]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for commercial housing has increased, indicating a growing supply relative to demand [3][25]. - Land transaction volumes have decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 80.5% in the latest week [4][32]. - Recent policy changes, such as the increase in housing provident fund loan limits in Nanjing, are aimed at stimulating the market [5][40]. Summary by Sections New Housing Sales and Land Transactions - The total new housing sales volume in 30 major cities reached 1.22 million square meters, down 44.2% year-on-year [1][14]. - In first-tier cities, cumulative new housing sales volumes have shown a narrowing of growth or an expansion of declines, with Beijing down 5.0% and Shanghai down 0.4% [2][17]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities is at 104.2, up from 94.7 year-on-year, indicating a higher supply relative to sales [3][25]. - Land transaction volumes in 100 major cities fell to 698,000 square meters, down 80.5% year-on-year [4][32]. Policy and Market Developments - Nanjing has raised the maximum housing provident fund loan limit from 500,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan per individual, effective until December 31, 2027 [5][40]. - The report notes that the market will likely refocus on the execution of existing supportive policies and the introduction of new measures following the holiday period [7][44]. Stock Performance - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the broader market by 3.2 percentage points [6][42]. - The report highlights specific stocks such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development as key focuses for investment [8][45].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in Shenzhen for the year 2025 Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing a contraction in new housing supply, with a total of 1,811 units sold from August 1 to 26, 2025, which is a reflection of high inventory pressure and traditional seasonal fluctuations [3] - The second-hand housing market shows a year-on-year increase of 16.07%, with 3,619 units sold by August 26, 2025, indicating stabilization supported by policy expectations and demand [4] - The land market in Shenzhen saw three residential land transactions in August, with significant competition among major developers, highlighting the resilience of core assets [5][6][7] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - From August 1 to 26, 2025, Shenzhen's new housing transactions totaled 1,811 units, equating to 18.32 million square meters, with new listings at 1,384 units or 15.00 million square meters [3] - The market is influenced by policy adjustments and economic recovery, with core areas like Nanshan and Futian showing strong sales performance [3] Second-Hand Housing Market - As of August 26, 2025, the second-hand housing market recorded 3,619 transactions, totaling 36.11 million square meters, reflecting a 16.07% increase year-on-year [4] - Despite signs of stabilization, high inventory levels and downward price pressures remain challenges for buyers [4] Land Market - In August, three residential land parcels were sold, with notable transactions including a low-density residential site in Bao'an District sold for 1.215 billion yuan, translating to a floor price of approximately 20,364 yuan per square meter [5] - Another significant transaction involved a site in Longhua District sold for 1.789 billion yuan, with a floor price of 35,030 yuan per square meter, indicating a premium of 15.12% [5] - The land market is characterized by a competitive landscape among top developers, with a focus on core asset acquisition and innovative development strategies [7] Sales Performance of Top Real Estate Companies - The top 20 real estate companies in Shenzhen achieved a total sales amount of 114.903 billion yuan from January to August 2025, accounting for 59.11% of the city's total sales [13] - The leading company, Hongrongyuan, reported sales of 16.114 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Shekou with 10.753 billion yuan [14] - The report categorizes companies into three segments based on sales volume, with the top segment (over 10 billion yuan) comprising two companies, while the majority fall into the lower segments [15]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility with the ChiNext index dropping over 2.5% during the session [2] - Major indices closed in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3828.11 (-0.65%), Shenzhen Component at 13209.00 (-1.76%), and the ChiNext at 3151.53 (-2.60%) [1][2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.17%), Environmental Protection (+0.38%), and Public Utilities (+0.35%) [1] - Conversely, the weakest sectors were Computer (-3.26%), Electronics (-2.75%), and Media (-2.65%) [1] Investment Insights - The report highlights a robust performance of the basic pension insurance fund, which has reached an investment operation scale of 2.6 trillion, doubling since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - The average annual investment return of the pension fund stands at 5.15%, indicating effective value preservation and growth [3] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to show a trend of oscillating upward rather than a one-sided increase, with a focus on whether growth policies can effectively translate into improved corporate earnings [4] - Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), Public Utilities, Non-ferrous Metals, and Financials [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate market policies are continuously tightening, creating investment opportunities in building materials. Recent policies from the central bank and local governments aim to support home purchases and improve safety in construction sites, indicating a shift towards a balanced supply-demand dynamic in the real estate market [3][4] - Recommended stocks in the consumer building materials sector include Sankeshu (channel penetration and retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader with optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations with a significant retail business), and Jianlang Wujin. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader with diversified expansion in coatings and waterproof sectors) [3] - The report also notes that the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry, aiming to control cement clinker capacity to around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, which is expected to accelerate the iteration of energy-saving and efficient equipment [3][4] Market Performance - The building materials index increased by 2.41% in the week from June 23 to June 27, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.95%, resulting in a 0.46 percentage point advantage [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index has risen by 0.88%, while the building materials index has decreased by 3.79%, indicating a 4.67 percentage point underperformance [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has increased by 13.29%, while the building materials index has only risen by 7.19%, showing a 6.11 percentage point underperformance [4][13] Cement Sector - As of June 27, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 284.72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.47% month-on-month. The price trends varied by region, with Northeast China seeing a significant drop of 21.95% [6][24] - The clinker inventory ratio reached 69.36%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points from the previous month [6][25] Glass Sector - The report indicates that the spot price of float glass as of June 27, 2025, was 1200.53 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13%. The inventory of float glass decreased by 2.51%, with a total of 59 million weight boxes [6][75] - The average price of photovoltaic glass was 120.70 yuan/weight box, down by 3.44% [6][78] Fiberglass Sector - The report notes that the price of fiberglass remains stable, with various types of fiberglass priced between 3400 to 6600 yuan/ton depending on the type and region [6][3] Consumer Building Materials - The report tracks the prices of key raw materials for consumer building materials, noting slight fluctuations. For instance, the price of asphalt remained stable at 4520 yuan/ton, while the price of acrylic acid increased by 1.87% to 6825 yuan/ton [6][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock", and for coking coal is also "shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran has caused the price of crude oil to rise. Coking coal, as an energy-related variety, indirectly benefits and rises under the narrative of rising energy costs. However, the deterioration of the Middle East situation may also drag down the global economic recovery, so its medium - to - long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear. In China, the social financing performance in May was weaker than expected, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased. The supply - demand gap further narrowed, which is expected to boost the price level. The State Council executive meeting mentioned promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also policies such as disguised price cuts through housing purchase coupons in some cities. The implementation time of crude steel production restrictions is uncertain, and currently, steel mills have sufficient profits and lack the motivation to cut production. Overall, the economic data in May was weak, but the market reaction was positive after the data was released on the 16th, and the real estate sector rose significantly. In a situation of extremely low valuations, reverse trading increased, and the bottom is gradually taking shape [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices stopped falling, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 868 yuan/ton (+8), and the active contract was reported at 790.5 yuan/ton (+1). The basis was 97.5 yuan/ton (+7), and the September - January spread was - 25 yuan/ton (-7.5) [2] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Mines and coal washing plants started to resume production. The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 61.34% (+3.98), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [2] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory increased, and downstream inventory decreased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 486.04 million tons (+5.31), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 251.47 million tons (+6.41), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons (+3.07), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 669.53 (-21), and the port inventory was 312.02 million tons (-1) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices were weak, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract was reported at 1375 yuan/ton (+9.5). The basis was - 9 yuan/ton (-9.5), and the September - January spread was - 28 yuan/ton (-5.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Supply decreased, and demand remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average pig iron output was 241.61 million tons (-0.19) [3] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventory continued to decrease. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 87.31 million tons (-1.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.84 million tons (-2.96), and the port inventory was 203.09 million tons (-11.06) [3] Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to an increase in the price of crude oil, and coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits. However, the impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal prices in the medium - to - long - term is unclear. Domestically, although the economic data in May was weak, the market reaction was positive, and the bottom is gradually taking shape. For coking coal, the resumption of production in coal washing plants and mines this week confirmed that the previous production cuts were mainly passive due to safety and environmental protection. The coal washing plants have started to reduce inventory, and it is likely that mines will also reduce inventory in the future. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The previous decline has pushed the cost to the limit, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The production capacity of coking enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, and the supply - demand situation of coke has improved marginally [4][5][6]

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the real estate market in China, particularly focusing on new and second-hand housing transactions in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In early June 2025, new home transaction volumes in 40 key cities decreased by 36% month-on-month, with significant contraction in first-tier cities [1][3]. - The second-hand housing market remains relatively stable, with absolute transaction volumes still higher than new homes, indicating overall market weakness [1][4]. - In Shanghai, second-hand home transactions showed a declining trend, with April's volume barely maintaining above 20,000 units, dropping further in May [8][9]. Price Trends - The price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have been fluctuating downwards, falling below levels seen before policy changes in February 2025 and September 2024, suggesting potential further price declines in the coming months [1][6][7]. - In Shanghai, the proportion of high-end second-hand homes priced above 11 million yuan decreased from 3.7% in April to 2.63% in May, while the proportion of affordable homes under 3 million yuan increased [11]. Inventory and Supply Issues - Most cities have inventory turnover cycles exceeding 18 months, with insufficient new home supply leading to increased absolute inventory levels [1][23]. - Private enterprises hold less than 20% of the land market, while state-owned enterprises dominate with 80%, indicating a lack of competition and innovation in land acquisition [22]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain stable until the end of 2025, but challenges may arise in 2026 due to limited high-quality land supply and the potential exhaustion of high-end buyers [18][30]. - The government is anticipated to implement further policies to stabilize prices in core cities, with a focus on maintaining market confidence [41]. Policy Impact - Continuous policy support is deemed necessary for stabilizing price expectations in core cities, with recommendations to invest in development stocks during key political meetings [2][31]. - The impact of rumored restrictions on resale has affected market sentiment, leading to some developers offering discounts on existing properties [32]. Regional Differences - The performance of the real estate market varies significantly across different regions, with core urban areas showing more resilience compared to suburban regions [12][25]. - The price dynamics in Shanghai's inner and outer rings reflect a disparity, with inner ring prices continuing to rise while outer ring prices remain stagnant [15]. Transaction Volume and Market Dynamics - The transaction volume for second-hand homes is expected to face challenges due to various factors, including limited quality supply and economic uncertainties [33]. - The overall trend in the second-hand market shows a gradual increase in transaction volume, driven by a growing inventory base and suppressed new home supply [34]. Conclusion - The real estate market in China is currently characterized by a mix of stability and underlying challenges, with significant reliance on government policies to navigate through the complexities of supply, demand, and pricing dynamics [30][41].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Insights - The company actively responds to policies regarding special bonds for purchasing real estate, collaborating closely with local governments on land storage matters [3] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with new home sales in key cities experiencing year-on-year growth in Q4 last year and Q1 this year [3] - In March, the company successfully acquired approximately 27 acres of land in a core area of Chongqing, enhancing its resource portfolio [3] Group 2: Market Value Management - The company emphasizes market value management, implementing measures such as share buybacks and stakeholder engagement to boost market confidence [5] - A structured management mechanism for market value, including a "Market Value Management System" and "Valuation Enhancement Plan," has been established [5] - Future efforts will focus on transparent operations and enhancing business quality to reflect true corporate value in the capital market [5] Group 3: Debt Management - The company primarily relies on medium to long-term bank loans for its existing debt and adheres to a strict "631" risk management principle to ensure timely debt repayment [5] Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Business Development - The cultural and tourism sector is a core business area, with the company responding to national policies aimed at boosting consumption through various initiatives [6] - The company is innovating its operational strategies, focusing on enhancing existing projects and developing new products to capture market opportunities [6] - The company plans to upgrade existing theme parks and hotels, aiming to improve competitiveness and attract a broader customer base [6] Group 5: Asset Optimization Strategies - The company employs various asset optimization methods, including regulatory adjustments, inventory acquisition, and customized sales strategies [7] - A long-term mechanism for asset revitalization has been established, involving regular reporting and leadership oversight to ensure project progress [7]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds mostly increased, with an overall change range of 0 BP to 8 BP during the period from May 5 to May 11 [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased on a month-on-month basis, with corporate bonds showing zero issuance while other varieties saw an increase in issuance amounts [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with corporate bonds showing negative net financing while other varieties showed positive net financing [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with all varieties seeing an increase in transaction amounts [2] - The yield of credit bonds decreased across the board, with a relatively larger decline in the short end [2] - The credit spread showed differentiation among various types of bonds, with short-term spreads widening and medium to long-term spreads narrowing overall [2] - The report suggests that despite market fluctuations, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and future yields are expected to enter a downward channel [2] Industry Research - Metals - The steel industry is under significant profit pressure, with a projected year-on-year decline of 131.74% in net profit for 2024, while Q1 2025 shows a substantial recovery with a year-on-year increase of 549.88% [5] - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see a year-on-year net profit growth of 1.77% in 2024, with a significant increase of 68.55% in Q1 2025 [6] - The precious metals sector performed well, with a year-on-year net profit increase of 40.68% in 2024 and 44.88% in Q1 2025, supported by geopolitical factors and central bank gold purchases [6][11] - The report highlights the strategic value reassessment of medium and heavy rare earths due to export control policies, leading to price increases in the overseas market [8][11] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on high-quality state-owned enterprises and bonds with strong guarantees, as well as considering opportunities in undervalued real estate bonds [3][5] Industry Research - Light Industry & Textiles - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the light industry gaining 3.02% and textiles gaining 3.47% during the period from May 5 to May 9 [12][13] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, with a significant increase in contract liabilities and cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 [14] - The easing of US-China tariff risks is expected to benefit export-oriented companies, improving export data and capacity utilization [13][14]