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楼市三季考:超470条新政“护市”,一线城市成交修复
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 07:56
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has shown signs of stabilization in 2025, with various policies implemented to support market recovery, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [1][2][7]. Policy Measures - Over 470 policies have been introduced across approximately 200 provinces and cities to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on demand activation, supply optimization, and new development models [2][4]. - Key demand-side policies include adjustments to housing provident fund regulations, home purchase subsidies, and the relaxation of purchase restrictions in core cities [4][5]. Demand Activation - Significant adjustments to housing provident fund policies have been made, including increased loan limits and support for down payments, with around 220 changes reported [4]. - Direct financial incentives for home purchases have been introduced, such as subsidies for families with multiple children [4]. - Major cities have optimized purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy multiple properties outside core areas [4][5]. Supply Control - Local governments are also focusing on controlling supply and reducing inventory, with over 4,600 plots of idle land identified for potential acquisition, covering more than 240 million square meters and totaling over 620 billion yuan [5][6]. - Various regions have initiated projects to acquire existing housing stock, with significant numbers of units being purchased in places like Guangxi and Zhejiang [5]. Market Recovery - The first three quarters of 2025 have seen a recovery in transaction volumes, particularly in first-tier cities, with notable increases in both new and second-hand housing sales following policy changes [7][8]. - Nationally, the transaction volume for second-hand homes in key cities has increased by approximately 9% year-on-year, although this has been accompanied by price reductions [9]. Future Development Trends - The focus on urban renewal and high-quality development is expected to shape the future of the real estate sector, with an emphasis on improving existing housing stock and promoting sustainable living environments [10][11]. - The central government has highlighted the importance of urban renewal initiatives, aiming to transition from rapid growth to quality enhancement in urban development [11][12].
专访社科院倪鹏飞:城市规模存在合理区间,警惕“越大越好”主张
21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道 当前我国城镇化率已突破67%,城镇开发边界内70%以上是存量空间。城镇化从快速增长转向稳定发展,城市发展从大 规模增量扩张转向存量提质增效,城市以及与之息息相关的房地产,下一步应该走向哪里? 今年7月,中央城市工作会议召开,其后《中共中央 国务院关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》(以下简称《意见》)出台,为新阶段的城市工作划定重点。 其中,推动城市群一体化和都市圈同城化发展,增强超大特大城市综合竞争力,激活城市存量资源潜力,系统推进"好房子"和完整社区建设,加快构建房地 产发展新模式等被摆在更加重要的位置。 从实践来看,尽管"一城独大"时代已经过去,但部分城市在发展过程中仍存在集聚压力,面临协同难题,大中小城市协调发展还有很长的路要走。 "事实上,在一定技术等条件下,任何城市规模都有合理区间,超过区间必然导致规模不经济。"近日,中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心主任倪鹏飞在 接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时表示。 倪鹏飞兼任多个城市的政府顾问及智库专家,同时是国务院特殊津贴专家,长期深耕城市与房地产发展经济学,统一发展经济学、竞争力经济学等领域,在 相关学科研究及政策实践层面积累 ...
中国房协代建协会会长耿忠强:代建行业一定是一个充满前景的良性赛道
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-09-15 09:12
Core Viewpoint - The construction agency model is emerging as a new opportunity and mission in the context of a deep adjustment in the real estate industry, helping to transform traditional high-cost models and supporting the industry's de-leveraging and return to housing's residential attributes [1][4]. Group 1: New Development Model - The construction agency model aligns with the new development model emphasized by central government policies, addressing significant changes in supply and demand in the real estate market and promoting stable and healthy market development [2]. - The real estate industry is undergoing three major changes: policy direction shifting from "de-leveraging" to "risk prevention," market demand transitioning from general growth to differentiation, and competition evolving from scale expansion to quality [2]. Group 2: Market Growth and Opportunities - The construction agency model has proven effective over more than 30 years, with companies like Iron Mountain achieving over 40% project returns with less than 5% capital investment [3]. - Over 20 provincial governments in China have introduced management measures for construction agency projects, with project numbers increasing by over 40% annually from 2021 to 2024, and a projected industry penetration rate of 12.5% by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Responsibilities and Industry Trends - New opportunities for the construction agency industry come with increased responsibilities, requiring companies to address broader social issues beyond just development services [4]. - The industry is experiencing a trend of concentration among leading firms, focusing on risk management and profitability, with a consensus on prioritizing quality over quantity [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The construction agency model is seen as a promising sector that meets market demands and aligns with policy directions, while also addressing social missions such as improving living conditions and urban renewal [5]. - The industry is working towards establishing unified standards and evaluation systems to promote sustainable development and orderly competition [5].
大局已定,房地产该如何破局?哪个才是最关键的救市举措?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 06:14
当前房地产市场依然低迷是不争的事实,在多重政策利好作用下,持续下行的幅度在趋缓也是客观现象,所以在这样的关键节点,该如何趁热打铁让房地产 尽快止跌回稳,则成了当前最重要的政策部署。 我虽然特讨厌买涨不买跌的逻辑怪象,但现实中又不得不承认这样的逻辑在左右着市场的走向。也就是说,即使买房自住,其实受买涨不买跌的影响也是巨 大的。这也就不难理解楼市在房价久未止跌的情况下,购房者又多么没办法地保持理性观望了。 现在地方缺钱,开发商缺钱,老百姓也缺钱,即使你有钱,刚需的房子卖不动,那么想改善的人群房子也卖不掉,想买房还是买不了。这种循环就无法形成 闭环,导致很难有解。 房地产作为资金密集型行业,你越是需要钱的时候,就越没人给你钱。"晴天送伞、雨天收伞"的行为更断了你的后路。房地产行业的发展模式本质上就 是"金融驱动型"模式,在房企拿地、开发、销售的全流程,这种"命脉"环节哪一个地方都不能出问题,这种依赖程度远超其他行业。 老百姓也是如此,想买房可能需要几代人的共同努力,杠杆也是加到了没边,但我认为银行降低首付比例并不是最优解,降低房贷利率比降低首付更科学。 因为15%的首付比例已经很低了,在大城市几百万的房子,85%的 ...
政策动态 | 中央发布城市工作会议落实细则,上海外环外限购解绑(8.25-8.31)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-01 03:37
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing efforts by central and local authorities to stabilize the real estate market through policy adjustments and the promotion of high-quality urban development, indicating a shift towards a new real estate model focused on quality rather than quantity [2][4]. Central Policies - The central government has issued guidelines to promote high-quality urban development, marking a transition from rapid urbanization to stable development, and from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing urban areas [2][4]. - The new real estate model aims to increase demand for high-quality housing and support urban renewal initiatives, which include the renovation of old housing and the development of affordable housing [2][4]. Local Policies - In the past week, 13 provinces and cities have announced 15 measures to stabilize the market, with Shanghai's policy adjustments being particularly noteworthy, including the removal of purchase restrictions for non-residents and the optimization of housing loan policies [4][6]. - Shanghai's new measures allow non-residents with one year of social security to purchase homes without restrictions in the outer ring, and single individuals are treated as residents for purchasing limits [4][6]. - Other cities, such as Suzhou, have also made significant policy changes, including the cancellation of a two-year sales restriction on new homes [6][9]. Policy Trends - The frequency of local market stabilization policies has increased, with a notable rise in subsidy-related policies and adjustments to housing fund regulations [9][11]. - The focus on optimizing housing fund policies remains prevalent, with multiple cities adjusting loan limits and providing various subsidies to encourage home purchases [11][13]. - The recent emphasis on high-quality urban development is expected to lead to more related policies in the near future, reflecting a strategic shift in the real estate sector [13][14].
湖北城市更新累计实施项目7800余个 投资额近3500亿元
8月28日,湖北省政府新闻办召开"决胜收官 '十四五'谋篇布局'十五五'"系列新闻发布会,主题为"城市 更新篇"。证券时报记者从发布会现场了解到,截至目前,湖北累计实施城市更新项目7800余个,完成 投资额近3500亿元;开工改造城镇老旧小区1.84万个、惠及居民超过270万户。 (文章来源:证券时报网) 湖北省住建厅党组书记、厅长刘丰雷介绍,湖北加快探索房地产发展新模式,在城市存量更新提质与增 量小区开发建设中探索构建房地产发展新模式,选定10个项目开展省级试点,通过重组地上地下空间、 整合各类支持政策、连接外部服务资源,打造"住、吃、游、购、娱、医、养"全生态服务,重构房地产 商业模式,推动房地产从"建房子、卖房子"向"既建房子卖房子、又造服务卖服务"转变。 城市更新离不开真金白银的支持,中央也明确鼓励金融机构合规参与、强化信贷支持。 国家金融监督管理总局湖北监管局一级巡视员胡继红介绍,湖北金融监管局联合省住建厅组建多部门参 与的城市房地产融资协调机制工作专班,积极推动湖北"白名单"项目扩围增效,打好保交房攻坚战。截 至7月末,全省"白名单"项目855个,授信审批3116.9亿元,累计投放2197.8亿元 ...
碧桂园(02007)上半年累计完成交付房屋约7.4万套
智通财经网· 2025-08-22 14:21
Core Viewpoint - Country Garden (碧桂园) reported a significant loss of approximately RMB 15.1 billion for the half-year period ending June 30, 2024, and anticipates a further loss of between RMB 18.5 billion to RMB 21.5 billion for the half-year period ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to a decline in the scale of real estate project settlements and low gross margins [1] Group 1 - The expected losses are attributed to increased asset impairments in property projects, influenced by changes in the industry, market, and operational environment [1] - The company has maintained stable operations by implementing a strict income and expenditure strategy, efficiently utilizing resources, and establishing a diversified dynamic mechanism to enhance operational management [1] - During the reporting period, the company and its joint ventures delivered approximately 74,000 housing units [1] Group 2 - The company is actively addressing debt risk by engaging with stakeholders to promote overall restructuring of offshore debt, reasonable extension of debt maturities, and moderate reduction of financing costs [1] - The company aims to gradually build a long-term and sustainable healthy capital structure through various proactive debt management measures [1] - The company will continue to focus on operational improvements by orderly adjusting organizational structure and resource allocation to ensure the achievement of strategic goals and accelerate the development of core capabilities suited to the new real estate model [1]
万科企业发布中期业绩 实现收入1053.23亿元 经营效益保持在行业细分领域前列
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 12:38
Core Viewpoint - Vanke Enterprise reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and sales figures, while also facing operational challenges that the company aims to overcome through strategic initiatives [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 105.32 billion yuan and a gross profit of 5.38 billion yuan for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] - Sales amounted to 69.11 billion yuan, with a repayment rate exceeding 100% [1] - The company completed the delivery of over 45,000 housing units and engaged in bulk transactions totaling 6.43 billion yuan across 13 projects [1] - The total income from operational services reached 28.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [1] Financing and Support - Vanke secured new financing and refinancing of 24.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, excluding shareholder loans [1] - The largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, provided liquidity support amounting to 23.88 billion yuan, with favorable loan rates and collateral conditions [1] - The company successfully repaid 24.39 billion yuan in public debt, with no foreign public debt maturing before 2027 [1] Operational Challenges and Strategic Focus - The company acknowledges ongoing operational pressures but is optimistic about recovery due to strong support from stakeholders and its talented workforce [2] - Vanke plans to enhance business operations through strategic focus, management improvements, and technological empowerment [2] - The company aims to optimize its business layout and structure, ensuring a return to a healthy development trajectory while providing quality housing and services [2]
博鳌专家谈|中国房地产市场何去何从?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 12:46
Group 1 - The Boao Real Estate Forum highlights the need for innovation and integration in the real estate sector to achieve high-quality development amidst economic transformation [2] - Fan Gang emphasizes that housing consumption is a significant part of overall consumption and suggests that service consumption, particularly in healthcare and entertainment, will be a new growth point [4][5] - Chen Huai advocates for a balanced development model in real estate, focusing on where to build rather than whether to build, addressing urban structural imbalances [5][7] Group 2 - Hong Hao notes that while there is a perception of insufficient consumption, certain sectors like new consumption in Hong Kong are performing well, indicating a complex consumption landscape [8][10] - Wang Chengwei discusses the potential of new technologies to create new markets and demands, suggesting that innovation can help balance supply and demand in the real estate sector [11][13] - Cai Yun stresses the importance for real estate companies to recognize their advantages and leverage them for market adaptation during economic transitions [15][16] Group 3 - Xia Yifeng outlines the future of the real estate industry as focusing on optimizing existing stock and improving the quality of new developments, with an emphasis on urban renewal beyond just residential properties [16][18]
北京万科拟2541万元底价出售10套商业用房
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-08-14 07:30
在此之前,该公众号还发布过北京天竺悦府项目商业、金域缇香家园商业资产出售等信息。 8月12日,微信公众号"北京万科"发布公告,拟将其持有的北京万科云庐、翡翠西湖项目部分商业 用房对外出售,出售底价为2541万元。 按照公告,万科拟将其持有的北京万科云庐(丰台区云滨街5号院)7套商业用房以及北京翡翠西湖 (丰台区文林北街6号院4号楼)3套商业用房进行对外出售。云庐7套商业用房的产权面积为565.95平方 米,总底价为1979万元,其中1套为便利店、1套菜市场,其余为商服用途。翡翠西湖3套商业用房的产 权面积为513.73平方米,总底价为562万元,其中1套为便利店、1套菜市场以及其他商业用房。10套商 业资产共计底价约2541万元。 按照要求,付款意向金为50万元,销售协议签署后缴纳10%交易保证金,成交后当月付款至30%, 三个月内付款至80%,六个月内全款。 根据万科此前发布的2025年半年度业绩预告,今年上半年,万科录得净亏损至少100亿元。数据显 示,上半年,万科归属于上市公司股东的净利润为预计亏损100亿元至120亿元,扣除非经常性损益后的 净利润为亏损95亿元至115亿元。 万科在公告中表示,公司将 ...