2025 年 12 月 22 日 行业点评报告 中性/维持 11 月销售延续承压，开发投资走弱 2025 年 11 月统计局房地产数据点评 走势比较 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/11/18 25/1/29 25/4/11 25/6/22 25/9/2 25/11/13 子行业评级 | 和运营 | | | --- | --- | | 房 地 产 开 发 房地产服务 | 无评级 无评级 | 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20251114）：常 州新北区两宗宅地成交>>--2025- 11-16 <<太平洋房地产日报（20251113）：宁 波慈溪一宗涉宅地块出让>>--2025- 11-14 <<城投控股 2025 年三季报点评：利 润实现扭亏为赢，待结算资源丰 富>>--2025-11-13 房地产 房地产 证券分析师：徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S119052 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market has experienced a historic decline, with all 70 cities reporting price drops for two consecutive months, marking a significant shift in the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][3][5]. Summary by Category Housing Market Trends - In October, the average new home price in 70 major cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, both showing an expanded decline compared to September [5][9]. - This marks the first time since 2011 that all 70 cities have seen a month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices for two consecutive months [5][11]. City-Specific Performance - Among first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai being the only city to see a slight increase of 0.3% [7]. - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities dropped by 0.9% month-on-month, with a continuous decline observed over the past six months, indicating a more severe downturn compared to second and third-tier cities [7][9]. Economic Implications - Experts express concerns about deflation risks due to the ongoing decline in housing prices, which may negatively impact consumer confidence and spending [11][17]. - The real estate sector's downturn is expected to persist, potentially exacerbating deflationary pressures in the economy [11][18]. Market Segmentation - Despite the overall decline, certain high-quality projects continue to attract buyers, indicating a market segmentation where "good properties" remain in demand [13]. - Some older projects are resorting to significant discounts and promotional offers to attract customers, reflecting the competitive pressure in the market [13]. Policy and Market Response - The National Bureau of Statistics acknowledges the fluctuations in the real estate market but emphasizes that policy effects are still being realized, with ongoing efforts to reduce inventory [15]. - The total unsold commercial housing area decreased to 75.606 million square meters by the end of October, continuing a trend of reduction over the past eight months [15].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization due to various supportive policies implemented by local governments, although challenges remain during the transition from old to new market models [1][2]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Performance - The decline in new residential property sales has narrowed, with sales area and sales revenue down by 6.8% and 9.6% year-on-year respectively from January to October, showing improvement compared to the previous year [1]. - The inventory of unsold properties is decreasing, with the total unsold area at 75,606 million square meters by the end of October, a reduction of 3.22 million square meters from September, marking eight consecutive months of decline [1]. - The financial situation of real estate companies has improved, with the year-on-year decline in funds received by developers narrowing by 9.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Land Market and Sales Data - In October, the land transaction volume decreased significantly, with the area and value of land transactions down by 13% and 20% month-on-month, and by 25% and 33% year-on-year, respectively, marking the highest year-on-year decline this year [2][3]. - The top 100 real estate companies experienced a substantial sales decline of 41.9% in October, with total sales for the first ten months amounting to 28,967.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3% [3]. Group 3: Rental Market and Policy Recommendations - The national rental yield is at 2.37%, with expectations to stabilize between 2.4% and 2.8% by the second quarter of 2026, while first-tier cities show lower yields of 1.8% to 2.2% [3]. - Recommendations for policy adjustments include lowering mortgage rates and enhancing tax incentives for personal housing to stimulate the market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing fluctuations, but the effectiveness of policies is becoming evident, with a narrowing decline in sales and ongoing inventory reduction efforts [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to October, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 9.6%, but the decline has narrowed compared to the same period last year [1][7]. - As of the end of October, the nationwide inventory of unsold commercial housing was 75,606 million square meters, a reduction of 3.22 million square meters from September, marking eight consecutive months of decline [1][6][7]. Group 2: Price Trends - In October, new home prices in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities fell by 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.5% month-on-month, respectively, with six cities, including Shanghai and Hangzhou, experiencing price increases [2][3]. - The second-hand housing market is also adjusting, with prices in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities decreasing by 0.9%, 0.6%, and 0.7% month-on-month, indicating a process of price correction [5]. Group 3: Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment from January to October was 73,563 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.8 percentage points compared to previous values [7][9]. - The funding for real estate companies has seen a reduction in decline, with total funds received amounting to 78,853 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous years [9]. Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The government is actively implementing supportive policies to stimulate housing demand and stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on high-quality development [9]. - The next phase will involve adhering to the central government's directives to construct a new model for real estate development, emphasizing a combination of short-term and long-term strategies [9].