abc Global Research 2025 年 08 月 18 日 中国经济透视 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，未来仍面临更多挑 战 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，尽管出口增长有所回升 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，低于市场预期。社零同比增速放缓至3.7%，以 旧换新补贴覆盖的消费品同比增速有所放缓。整体固定资产投资同比下 降5.2%，大幅弱于预期，基建和制造业投资均有所下降，部分受极端天气 影响。房地产活动进一步下行，且房价继续环比下跌；工业生产同比增速回 落至5.7%。另一方面，尽管对美出口降幅扩大，但整体出口同比增速回升 至 7.2%。CPI 同比增速小幅回落至0%，而 PPI 继续同比大幅下跌 3.6%。 新增人民币贷款收缩，为二十年来首次出现单月新增贷款收缩，但政府债券 发行强劲继续推动社融信贷同比增速小幅上升至9%。 预计2025年年内仍将面临更多挑战 7月增长走弱可能意味着此前部分对经济有利的支撑因素开始走弱或转向。 如果房地产去库存没有显著进展，我们仍然预计下半年房地产活动下行持 续。由于居民收入增长和消费者信心较弱，政府并未出台大规模新增刺激政 策，且去年9月以来消费品以旧换新补贴启动带来的高基数 ...

2025年以来，与中央部委加快落实专项债收储政策同步推进，地方主管部门发布土地收储计划的速 度逐月加快。据克而瑞研究中心统计显示，截至5月27日，已有171个城市发布收储计划，合计收储金额 达3918亿元，明确涉及收储宅地规模6565公顷。 近日，专项债助力土地收储的进程显著加快。据深交所公告显示，2025年宁波市土地储备专项债券 （一期、二期）5月28日上市交易，发行总额达43.39亿元。此前，浙江省已先后发行多个土地储备专项 债券，资金用途涵盖新增土地储备及闲置土地回收等领域。业内人士分析指出，这一系列动作背后预示 着土地储备专项债券发行已进入加速阶段，也是推动房地产市场持续止跌回稳的一个重要发力点。 和众汇富统计发现，从地域上看，全国31个省区市中，已有23个公示拟使用专项债收购存量土地情 况。其中，广东省公示拟收储总金额超650亿元，居全国第一；河南、福建两省公示金额均超300亿元。 各城市中，郑州市表现突出，拟收储金额达173.5亿元，收储用地面积超500万平方米，均居各城市首 位；西安、惠州拟收储金额超100亿元。 "土地储备专项债是今年拓宽专项债发行使用范围，稳妥化解地方债务风险，推动房地产市场 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market is stabilizing, with operational assets being revalued first [1][3] - The market remains volatile, with both transaction volume and prices declining [4][5] - Policy measures are focused on land acquisition and old housing renovation [48][50] - Recovery is expected to take time, with adjustments nearing the bottom [4][5] Market Overview - In H1 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, showing a narrowing decline of 15.5 percentage points [4][15] - The sales area in 43 monitored cities reached 68.545 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 9.1%, a significant improvement from previous periods [4][29] - The second-hand housing market showed a positive trend, with a sales area of 48.465 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [4][29] Policy Measures - The government is implementing dual strategies of land acquisition and old housing renovation to stabilize the market [48][50] - As of mid-July 2025, the scale of land acquisition exceeded 480 billion yuan, with a steady increase in the issuance of special bonds [56][58] - Policies are aimed at reducing purchase barriers, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [64] Market Outlook - The annual incremental housing demand is estimated at approximately 950 million square meters, with expected sales area in 2025 projected at 900 million square meters [4][5] - The rental yield and risk-free return rates have normalized, providing a foundation for price stabilization [4][5] - Sales area, sales amount, new starts, completions, and investment are expected to decline year-on-year by 7.8%, 7.2%, 11.8%, 10.5%, and 9.8% respectively [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on financially stable and high-quality real estate companies, including China Resources Land (1109.HK) and Longfor Group (0960.HK) for development, and Poly Property (6049.HK) for property management [4][5]

Group 1 - The apparent demand for crude steel in China from January to May is 42.888 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Crude steel consumption in China during the same period is 37.260 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, primarily driven by a 12.7% decrease in real estate crude steel consumption [1] - Crude steel exports from January to May reached 5.628 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, contributing to a 1.7 percentage point increase in crude steel demand [1] Group 2 - The real estate sector's crude steel consumption is expected to maintain negative growth due to ongoing inventory pressure, with new construction and construction area decreasing by 22.8% and 9.2% respectively [2] - The housing inventory sales ratio has remained high, indicating that further inventory reduction is needed, with projections suggesting it will only decrease to 19.5 months by year-end, still above the warning line of 18 months [2] Group 3 - Infrastructure steel consumption support is weakening, with significant project investment declining after a strong start in early 2023, leading to a slowdown in infrastructure-related steel consumption growth [3] - The issuance of long-term special bonds for major projects is planned to be 800 billion yuan for 2025, which is 100 billion yuan more than in 2024, but the support for infrastructure steel consumption may weaken in the second half of the year [3] Group 4 - Manufacturing steel consumption is facing challenges due to insufficient support for equipment upgrades and a slowdown in high-tech manufacturing investment growth [4][5] - The support for "old-for-new" consumption in consumer goods is expected to decrease in the second half of the year, which may further weaken the demand for related crude steel consumption [5] Group 5 - Steel exports are anticipated to be lower in the second half of the year due to anti-dumping measures affecting exports to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a significant reduction in exports to Vietnam [6] - The export of steel billets has increased significantly, raising concerns within the industry, leading to suggestions for export restrictions [6] Group 6 - In a neutral demand scenario, crude steel daily average demand from June to December is expected to decrease by 5.6% compared to May, with an annual demand decline projected at 1.5% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry experienced a significant contraction in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the first half of 2025, with a total of 81 transactions completed, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year, but a notable decline in total transaction value [1][2]. Group 1: M&A Activity Overview - In the first half of 2025, the real estate sector completed 81 M&A transactions, an increase of 2 transactions compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - The total transaction value for 60 disclosed transactions was approximately 29.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 58% [1]. - Despite the overall decline, June 2025 saw a strong rebound with 19 transactions completed, a month-on-month increase of 9 transactions, and a total transaction value of 10.6 billion yuan, marking a substantial month-on-month growth of 334.4% [5]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts and Asset Management - Leading real estate companies are accelerating the divestiture of non-core assets while asset management companies (AMCs) and local special bonds are entering the market to provide new solutions for distress and inventory reduction [2]. - Notably, from November 2024 to June 2025, China Resources Land disposed of multiple assets while focusing on residential business, with a total land acquisition amounting to 62.6 billion yuan, predominantly in first and second-tier cities [5]. Group 3: Financial Institutions and Support Mechanisms - Several AMCs have actively participated in distress relief efforts, with institutions like China Cinda and others establishing a 20 billion yuan fund for revitalizing distressed real estate assets [7]. - In addition, special bonds for acquiring existing residential properties have been issued in some cities, with Zhejiang and Sichuan utilizing 2.19 billion yuan for such projects, primarily targeting local state-owned enterprises [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the real estate market in China is showing signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline in both sales volume and sales value compared to previous periods [1][2][3] - In the first half of the year, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 45,851 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The sales value of new commercial housing was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.5%, with the decline narrowing by 19.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The number of cities with rising new residential sales prices increased to 14 in June, with Shanghai and Changsha showing the largest month-on-month increases of 0.4% [1] - The average sales prices of new residential properties in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 1.4%, 3.0%, and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively, but the declines were smaller than in previous months [2] - Real estate companies are progressing in debt reduction, with funds in place for real estate development down 6.2% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed significantly compared to last year [2] Group 3 - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased to 76,948 million square meters by the end of June, marking a reduction of 479 million square meters from the end of May [2] - Core cities are continuing to optimize real estate policies, including adjustments to housing fund loan policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers [3] - It is expected that local governments will actively implement policies to stimulate the real estate market in the second half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing and developing healthily under continuous policy regulation, with a focus on urban renewal, high-quality transformation, and inventory optimization [3][5][14]. Policy and Market Environment - The central and local governments have actively promoted policies to stabilize the real estate market, including financial measures to reduce costs and expand demand [3][5]. - The real estate financial environment remains loose, with a package of financial policies introduced in April aimed at stabilizing demand [3][5]. - Local governments are responding to central policies by increasing the frequency of land repurchase announcements and implementing measures to stimulate consumption [3][5]. Market Performance - The real estate industry is moving towards stabilization, with new home sales area and amount remaining stable year-on-year, and the inventory of unsold properties decreasing for three consecutive months [5][9]. - The land market continues to show a trend of reduced volume but improved quality, with land transaction volume down 8% year-on-year, yet average floor prices have increased [7][9]. - The overall performance of real estate companies has stabilized, with nearly 45% of the top 100 companies reporting year-on-year growth in performance [13]. Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see further efforts to stabilize the market, with urban renewal and land storage policies expected to alleviate inventory pressure [3][5]. - The introduction of new housing standards is expected to lead to a significant influx of new products into the market, which may create challenges related to safety and quality [11]. - The financing environment for real estate companies remains tight, with a significant decline in financing scale, indicating ongoing challenges for companies in managing debt [14].

Core Viewpoint - The land market in China is experiencing a "reduction in quantity and improvement in quality," reflecting a shift in the real estate development stage, with a focus on "de-stocking" due to declining new housing sales and high levels of existing land supply [2][3][4]. Group 1: Land Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume of operating land in 300 cities decreased by 8% year-on-year, reaching a historical low of 2.5 billion square meters [7][11]. - Despite the reduction in land supply, the average premium rate for land auctions increased to 9.2%, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a shift towards higher quality land offerings [8][10]. - Major cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou saw land auction premium rates exceeding 50%, with Chengdu reaching as high as 75% for certain plots [8]. Group 2: Role of Local Governments and Investment Entities - Local governments are controlling land supply while enhancing the quality of land offered, which is seen as a key strategy to reduce real estate inventory [4][25]. - State-owned enterprises and local investment companies are playing a significant role in land acquisition, with local government platforms frequently participating in land auctions [9][10]. - From 2021 to 2024, local investment companies maintained a land acquisition share of over 50%, peaking at 64% in 2024 [10]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Dynamics - The narrow inventory of unsold residential properties decreased to 4.63 billion square meters by the end of May 2025, reflecting a downward trend [11]. - The broad inventory, which includes unsold properties and undeveloped land, remains a concern, with many projects not progressing to construction [12][13]. - The development capabilities of local investment companies are often insufficient, leading to a slow pace of project initiation [14][15]. Group 4: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - Recent government meetings emphasized the need to optimize existing policies to stabilize the real estate market and address issues related to idle land [19][20]. - As of April 2025, 24,000 plots of idle land covering 90,800 hectares have been included in a management list for proper disposal [21]. - The use of special bonds for land recovery has been reintroduced, with over 3,700 plots identified for potential recovery, amounting to approximately 470 billion yuan [24].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a stabilization phase in the first half of 2025, supported by a series of government policies aimed at boosting demand and managing risks [2][3][4]. Policy Measures - Approximately 170 provinces and cities have introduced over 340 policies in the first half of 2025, maintaining a high frequency of policy implementation [2][4]. - Key policy areas include inventory reduction, demand expansion, new models, and risk mitigation, with a focus on supporting housing demand through various measures such as lowering mortgage rates and promoting urban renewal [4][5]. - The central government has consistently emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with significant policy announcements made in March, April, and June [3][4]. Market Performance - The first half of 2025 saw a notable performance in core cities, with new residential sales in Beijing and Shanghai increasing by approximately 4%, while Guangzhou experienced a 16% increase and Shenzhen saw over 30% growth [7]. - In Shenzhen, a total of 51,104 residential units were signed in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [7]. - The sales performance of major real estate companies indicates that 47.8% of their sales came from second-tier cities, while first-tier cities contributed 40% of sales, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [8]. Price Trends - The average price of new homes in 100 cities increased by 0.97% from January to May 2025, indicating a structural price increase driven by improved housing quality [9]. - The second-hand housing market has shown a decline in prices, with a cumulative drop of 2.88% from January to May 2025, as the market continues to adjust [11]. Future Outlook - The overall sales volume in the real estate market is expected to remain under pressure, with an estimated total of 900 million square meters of new residential sales for the year [10][11]. - The market is likely to continue experiencing a divergence in performance across different cities and projects, influenced by policy measures, supply-demand dynamics, and urban effects [10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing a "reduction in quantity and improvement in quality" as it accelerates inventory reduction, with a focus on optimizing existing policies to stabilize the market [1][7][11] Land Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume of operating land in 300 cities decreased by 8% year-on-year, with an average premium rate of 9.2%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2] - Major cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou have seen land auction premium rates exceeding 50%, indicating a strong demand for quality land despite overall reduced supply [2][3] Inventory Reduction Efforts - The State Council has emphasized the need to assess existing land and ongoing projects to further optimize policies aimed at reducing inventory and stabilizing the real estate market [7][8] - As of May 2025, the narrow inventory of residential properties in 100 cities was 4.63 billion square meters, showing a downward trend, while the broad inventory remains a concern due to many undeveloped land parcels [5][6] Role of Local Government and State-owned Enterprises - Local governments are controlling land supply while enhancing quality, with state-owned enterprises playing a significant role in land acquisition, particularly in second and third-tier cities [3][11] - The proportion of land acquired by local investment platforms has remained above 50% from 2021 to 2024, peaking at 64% in 2024 [3] Policy Measures for Land Utilization - The Ministry of Natural Resources has introduced measures to address challenges related to idle land, including policies for reasonable adjustments and support for enterprises facing financial difficulties [8][10] - The use of special bonds for land storage has been reintroduced, allowing local governments to recover idle land effectively [10][11]