从增速对比来看，2025年成交金额降幅仍大于成交面积，这与70城房价走势一致，年内房价持续向合理区间回归。不过从局部市场来看，部分板块房 源租售比已超过存贷款利率，房价呈现点状企稳态势。正如央行在货币执行报告中所指出，利率及比价关系对资源配置具有重要导向作用，充分发挥 货币信贷政策的调节功能，将为房地产发展新模式的构建提供有力支撑。 交易量降幅较上年显著收窄，需求侧持续积蓄企稳动能 01 2025年商品房成交规模降幅较2024年显著收窄， 预计全年销售面积达8.9亿平方米、销售金额8.4万亿元，分别同比下降9%和13% ， 其中销售面积降幅 较上年收窄约4个百分点。 当前房地产行业仍处于止跌回稳的关键周期，考虑到2024年下半年行业交易量基数已大幅抬升，2025年新房交易量同比降幅 收窄的表现符合市场较佳预期。 ☉ 文／克而瑞 summa ry 总结 践行控增量、去库存路线 全面迈入稳市场周期 从行业需求基本面来看，我国城镇人口已达9.4亿人，人均住房面积超40平方米。参考发达国家住房交易更替率及我国一二手房交易结构测算，当前一 手房年均合理需求仍维持在8-9亿平方米。叠加城镇化持续推进、高品质住宅发展带动的 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 2026 年 2 月 联络人 作者 企业评级部 蒋 螣 027-87339288 tjiang@ccxi.com.cn 刘旭冉 027-87339288 xrliu@ccxi.com.cn 黎小琳 027-87339288 xlli@ccxi.com.cn | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 样本企业表现 | 8 | | 结论 | 12 | | 附表 | 13 | 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 房地产行业 中国房地产行业展望，2026 年 2 月 2025 年房地产行业政策力度同比减弱，但全年销售规模降幅收窄， 去库存亦取得一定进展，在商品房销售额尚未完全企稳的背景下， 供求平衡的修复仍面临挑战；2026 年预计行业销售及投资下行压力 仍存但节奏放缓，政策端或将进入常态化实施阶段，待售面积有望 出现拐点性下降，为"十五五"房地产市场触底企稳打下基础，预 计未来短期内头部房企的市场地位稳固，但行业颈部及腰部企业的 排序或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the 2026 real estate work will be on "stabilizing the market, reducing inventory, strengthening guarantees, and promoting updates" as highlighted in various local government reports [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Stabilization - Local governments emphasize stabilizing the real estate market as a primary goal, aligning with central economic directives [2][3]. - Key measures include encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing and improving transaction convenience for existing homes [2][3]. - Specific actions have been initiated in cities like Shanghai, which has started acquiring second-hand homes for rental housing projects [2]. Group 2: Housing Security - Strengthening the supply of affordable housing is crucial for revitalizing inventory and ensuring public welfare [4]. - Policies aim to enhance the rental housing market and provide adequate living conditions for new urban residents, with cities like Beijing and Shanghai planning significant increases in affordable housing supply [4]. Group 3: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal has shifted from large-scale construction to improving existing structures, with a focus on quality and efficiency [5][6]. - Various cities have set ambitious targets for urban renewal projects, including the renovation of old neighborhoods and infrastructure improvements [6][7]. - The integration of diverse stakeholders and innovative financing methods is being explored to support urban renewal initiatives [7]. Group 4: New Development Models - The emphasis on urban renewal is driving the real estate sector towards new development models, focusing on revitalizing existing properties and enhancing functionality [8]. - The market is showing signs of bottoming out after four years of decline, with efforts to stabilize market confidence through inventory management and urban renewal [8]. - Future market stabilization will depend on proactive policy support and addressing the housing needs of young people and new urban residents [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "old for new" housing policy in Shanghai aligns with the core task of "de-stocking" in the real estate sector, providing support for old and dilapidated properties and establishing price anchors [1][8]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand homes for use as rental properties, starting in key districts such as Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui [3]. - The program prioritizes the acquisition of properties that owners are eager to replace, with funds regulated in a "housing ticket" format to ensure proceeds from selling old homes are used to purchase new ones [4]. - The acquisition targets older, smaller properties, specifically those built before 2000, with a total price not exceeding 4 million yuan and a size under 70 square meters [5]. Group 2: Market Context - The urgency for "de-stocking" in China's real estate market is highlighted by a significant inventory of new homes, with a de-stocking cycle projected to reach 28.7 months by the end of 2025, far exceeding reasonable limits [7]. - The "old for new" policy is seen as a critical measure to address this pressing issue [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average total price of eligible properties in Shanghai is 255,000 yuan, with a market average of 367,000 yuan, indicating a significant price gap [11]. - The average negotiation space for eligible properties is 8.3%, compared to the overall market's 7.9%, suggesting a more favorable environment for buyers in the targeted segment [11]. Group 4: Regional Variations - Different cities have adopted the "old for new" policy with varying focuses, with first-tier cities emphasizing urban renewal and second- and third-tier cities concentrating on de-stocking goals and financial incentives [13]. - The operational models for the policy differ across regions, with some areas using a "help sell" model while others involve direct acquisition by state-owned enterprises [14]. Group 5: Challenges and Considerations - Experts have raised concerns about the challenges of acquiring second-hand homes compared to new inventory, noting the complexities of negotiations with individual homeowners [17]. - The sustainability of funding for these acquisitions is questioned, as the rental yield in Shanghai remains below 2%, raising concerns about the financial viability of the program [17]. - The policy's effectiveness relies on transparent processes and fair pricing mechanisms to ensure both buyer and seller interests are met [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "old-for-new" housing policy initiated in Shanghai, which aligns with the core task of "de-stocking" in the real estate sector, aiming to stabilize prices and support the replacement of old and dilapidated housing [2][8]. Summary by Sections Policy Implementation - On February 2, Shanghai launched a program to acquire second-hand houses for use as rental housing, with initial pilot areas in Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui districts [3]. - The process involves homeowners selecting a new home, followed by a third-party evaluation of their old home, allowing for a streamlined transaction [4]. Key Features of the Pilot Program - The program prioritizes homes with strong replacement intentions, with funding regulated in a "housing ticket" format to ensure proceeds from selling old homes are used to purchase new ones [5]. - The focus is on acquiring lower-priced "old and dilapidated" homes, specifically those built before 2000, under 70 square meters, and priced below 4 million yuan [6]. - The program emphasizes acquiring properties in desirable locations, particularly near industrial parks, commercial areas, and transit stations, which are in high demand for rental housing [6]. - The government is the primary buyer of these second-hand homes, with public rental housing companies in each district responsible for the acquisitions [6]. Market Context and Implications - By June 2024, over 70 cities had implemented similar policies, but without significant momentum. The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference reiterated the need for "de-stocking," highlighting the urgency of the situation [7]. - The "old-for-new" policy is seen as a crucial measure to address the high inventory of new homes, with the average de-stocking cycle for new residential properties in 100 cities projected to reach 28.7 months by the end of 2025 [7][8]. Market Data and Trends - Data from the Shanghai housing market indicates that the average transaction price for eligible second-hand homes is significantly lower than the overall market average, with a total average price of 255 million yuan for qualifying homes [9]. - The average negotiation space for these homes is around 8.3%, with a transaction cycle of approximately 126 days, indicating a slower market for these properties [9]. Regional Variations and Other Initiatives - Other cities, such as Nanjing and Hangzhou, have also launched "old-for-new" initiatives, each with specific criteria for the types of homes eligible for the program [10][11]. - Different cities have varying focuses, with first-tier cities emphasizing urban renewal and second- and third-tier cities focusing more on de-stocking and financial incentives [11]. Challenges and Considerations - Experts have raised concerns about the challenges of acquiring second-hand homes compared to new inventory, noting the complexities of negotiations with individual homeowners [14]. - The sustainability of funding for these initiatives is questioned, as the rental yield in Shanghai remains below 2%, raising concerns about the financial viability of government acquisitions [14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of transparent processes and fair pricing in the evaluation of old homes to ensure a balanced outcome for both sellers and buyers [20][21].

据悉，浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区的三位副区长在签约仪式上亮出了各自的方案。 每经记者｜包晶晶 每经编辑｜陈梦妤 以过去一年为观察窗口，上海成交的二手房中，同时符合"内环、70平方米以下、总价400万元以内、 2000年以前建成"这些条件的二手房，占比仅6.9%。 2月2日，上海收购二手房用于保障性租赁住房实质性启动，浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区作为首批试点， 与建设银行上海市分行正式签约。 2月3日一早，《每日经济新闻》记者以置换人身份咨询了徐汇区惠众公共租赁住房运营有限公司，其工 作人员表示："正在试点，相关细则目前还没有下达，有出售意愿的话可以留下个人信息，随后将有专 人跟进。" 什么样的二手房优先收？ 具体来看，浦东新区优先聚焦内环内、2000年以前建成、单套建筑面积70平方米以下、总价不超过400 万元、产权清晰的个人二手房源。该方案核心是面向有置换需求的产权人，特别是租售比相对较高，保 租房房源供需矛盾较大，居住配套成熟的重点区域。 静安区的方案主动融入城市更新大局，采取片区式收储为主，零散收购为辅的策略，对成本较低、交通 便捷、居住配套成熟的区域优先运作，集中推进。同时，收购底楼房屋缓和加装电梯分歧，改 ...

2026年第4周（1.26-2.1），本周房地产领域中央层面的动向有两方面值得重点关注： 一是监管端出现边际调整， 部分出险房企不再被监管部门要求每 月上报"三条红线"指标； 二是发展产业联动房地产去库存， 本周出台的支持养老产业发展的相关措施、培育服务消费新增长点的工作方案，均提及通过 发展相关产业助力房地产行业去库存。 地方层面， 优化公积金成为本周地方发力重点， 共有8地出台了相关稳市场政策，典型如天津将公积金贷款额度上限从120万元提升至144万元，多孩家 庭首套房可获得最高贷款额度。 多地积极落实中央下调商业用房首付的政策， 将商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例下调至30%，吉林、山东、甘肃、西 藏等省份均明确发文落实这一新规。 | 日期 | 部委/省市 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | １月 28 日 | 监管部门 | 多家房企:目前已不被监管部门要求每月上报"三条红线"指标 | | １月 28 日 | 三部委 | 深化自然资源要素保障支持养老服务改革发展 | | 1月29日 | 国务院 | 鼓励地方结合消化存量房地产,支持旅居项目用地和服务设施建设 | | 1月26日 | ...

2026.01. 30 本文字数：2143，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 马一凡 闲置土地被政府回收、新房被国资集中收购、二手房可以通过地方国企"以旧换新"——2026年刚开 年，房地产去库存就迎来密集实操动作。 从顶层设计走向落地执行，从地方政府专项债加码到市场化手段持续扩围，地方政府正通过多种路径 协同发力，推动房地产库存有序出清，稳定市场预期。 多城土地收储有实质性动作 2026年刚开年，土地收储成为部分地方政府去库存的重要抓手，专项债资金的加速落地为收储提供 了关键支撑。 近期，湖南长沙率先公布具体项目清单。根据长沙市规划和自然资源局网站信息，1月19日，长沙市 规划和自然资源局发布《关于长沙市（本级）2026年第二批拟申报土地储备专项债券收回收购存量 闲置土地的项目公示》。公告显示，经相关部门审议并与土地使用权人协商一致后，拟将开福区长燃 地块等5个项目纳入长沙市（本级）2026年第二批土地储备项目清单，拟通过地方政府专项债券进行 收储，收储总金额达29.71亿元。 在粤港澳大湾区，广东肇庆也加快了土地收储步伐。近日，肇庆市自然资源局公布肇庆市市区2026 年第一批土地储备领域申报地方政 ...

房地产去库存进入"政府主导攻坚与市场出清并存"阶段。 近期，湖南长沙率先公布具体项目清单。根据长沙市规划和自然资源局网站信息，1月19日，长沙市规 划和自然资源局发布《关于长沙市（本级）2026年第二批拟申报土地储备专项债券收回收购存量闲置土 地的项目公示》。公告显示，经相关部门审议并与土地使用权人协商一致后，拟将开福区长燃地块等5 个项目纳入长沙市（本级）2026年第二批土地储备项目清单，拟通过地方政府专项债券进行收储，收储 总金额达29.71亿元。 在粤港澳大湾区，广东肇庆也加快了土地收储步伐。近日，肇庆市自然资源局公布肇庆市市区2026年第 一批土地储备领域申报地方政府专项债券收回收购项目清单，涉及15宗土地，拟收储资金总额达到35亿 元，显示出地方政府主动回收存量土地、调节土地供给节奏的决心。 部分城市的土地储备债券资金正在落地。比如在1月16日深交所披露了《关于2026年宁波市土地储备专 项债券（二期）—2026年宁波市政府专项债券（十期）上市交易的通知》，该期债券为7年期固定利率 附息债，发行规模10.13亿元，票面利率1.8%。 根据中指研究院最新监测数据，2025年，全国已有26个省（自治区、 ...

更多政策解读、城市月报、房企研究报告 ...... 中指云 就在 Q 中指】央行重磅发声，降息落地! - - 央行重磅发声，降息落地! 2、降低商业用房最低首付比例至 30%,降低购房门槛,促进商办去库存 原文:会同金融监管总局将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%,支持推动商办房地产 市场去库存。 《中指解读】此前商业用房（包括商铺、写字楼、酒店、商业综合体等）贷款最低首付比例为 50%,本次央行将首付比例降至 30%,直接降低了购买商业用房的门槛,有助于提升商办市场活跃度。 本次央行加大对商办用房的支持力度，也是支持去库存的具体表现，表明中央及监管部门对商办项 目去库存的重视程度在提升。 本报告数据来自中指数据 CREIS。详情请查询 https://www.cih-index.com 或致电 400-630-1230、010-56319088. 国务院新闻办公室于 2026 年 1 月 15 日举行新闻发布会,请中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长 邹澜,国家外汇局新闻发言人、副局长李斌,中国人民银行货币政策司司长谢光启,中国人民银行 新闻发言人、调查统计司司长闫先东,国家外汇局资本项目管理司司长肖胜介绍 ...