道明证券：美元空头仓位拥挤，一季度季节性反弹风险上升 美国银行：美国劳动力市场最差阶段或已过去，12月非农成关键验证 德国商业银行：德国工业产出仅短暂反弹，结构性停滞难改 ·ING分析师指出，市场可能对略显疲软的非农数据表现出较大容忍度，并认为除非数据出现剧烈波 动，否则更具影响力的指标或将是失业率数据。即将公布的美国12月非农就业报告，将有助于消除近期 政府停摆造成的数据迷雾。分析师认为，即便数据公布，其中的细微差别可能仍难以对未来利率前景提 供清晰指引。 ·瑞穗证券策略师指出，日本10年期国债收益率已显著突破2%，当前正处于寻找新均衡水平的过程中。 尽管在2.1%附近可能出现技术性买盘支撑，但整体上行趋势难以逆转，日债收益率中期内料将继续走 高。 ·道明证券分析师称，当前市场做空美元的仓位已趋于拥挤。考虑到美国经济数据在一季度通常呈现季 节性走强，美元可能迎来策略性技术反弹，尤其对欧元、澳元等被过度做空的货币或出现阶段性升值。 ·德国哈雷经济研究所报告显示，2025年全国企业破产数量达17,604起，为2005年以来最高水平。仅2025 年12月就有1519家企业申请破产，较2016年–2019年同期均值 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 超长债周报 年末资金面宽松，超长债继续反弹 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 LPR 利率保持不变，央行四季度例会提到"充 实完善货币政策工具箱，开展国债买卖，关注长期收益率的变化"，A 股大涨，债市继续反弹，超长债小涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃 度小幅下降，交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差缩窄，品 种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 26 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 39BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 11 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经济总量"稳中求进 ...

来源：喜娜AI 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 企业动态方面，汇丰控股宣布对恒生银行私有化方案的拟定对价为155港元/股，计划对价属最终定价， 在任何情况下均不会被提高[5]。据《华尔街日报》报道，SpaceX已安排银行推介会，为可能的首次公 开募股做准备[6]。甲骨文则在第四季度达成1500亿美元的数据中心租赁协议[7]。 政策与地缘政治方面，乌克兰总统顾问透露，乌美双方团队在柏林就和平提案举行的会谈持续逾五小 时，明日将继续进行[8]。美国货币政策预期出现新动向，总统特朗普表示很快将挑选新的美联储主席 人选，新任主席或将倾向于推动利率下调[9]，同时他认为当前通胀已完全得到遏制，但需警惕通缩风 险，称"通缩在很多方面比通胀更糟糕 ...

证券研究报告 2025年12月4日 行业：宏观 承前启后，"质"创未来 ——2026年度宏观展望 分析师：张河生 SAC编号：S0870523100004 目录 SECTION 2 一、内需与地产疲弱，出口有韧性 二、融资需求与物价水平走弱，2026年仍需稳增长 三、从量化、具化指标看十五五规划的可执行性与效果 四、美联储10月如期降息 五、风险提示 摘要 ◆ 核心观点 ◆ 风险提示 ◆ 居民收入、就业预期未改善，经济内生需求弱；稳增长政策低于预期等；中日地缘局势升级； 3 ◆ 内需与地产疲弱，出口有韧性，融资需求与物价水平走弱，2026年仍需稳增长。固定资产投资增速三季度加速下滑 ，消费二、三季度走弱，外贸保持较强韧性，对经济维持正贡献。地产形势走弱，融资需求依旧不佳，单位活期化 意愿提升，通缩风险依然存在。 ◆ 从量化、具化指标看十五五规划的可执行性与效果。中国经济当前存在的一些问题，十五五规划对问题以及解决方 案有相应的描述。居民消费率明显提高，我们认为中国居民消费占比未来5年提升15-20%，那么每年提升3-4%可完 成目标；关于就业的考核，我们认为需重视服务业对就业的重要性。 ◆ 美国通胀未达目标， ...

Core Viewpoint - The exchange rate of USD/CHF is influenced by the safe-haven characteristics of the Swiss franc and the divergent monetary policies of the two central banks, with the current trading around 0.8051 reflecting a slight increase from the previous close [1][2] Economic Indicators - Switzerland's Q3 GDP decreased by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, and industrial output fell by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating economic weakness [1] - The trade surplus in October was 3.2 billion CHF, with a narrowing decline in exports, partially offsetting the pressure from the appreciation of the Swiss franc [1] - The CPI in October showed a year-on-year increase of only 0.1%, raising concerns about deflation risks [1] Central Bank Policies - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a zero interest rate since June, but discussions about reintroducing negative rates are increasing due to economic and deflationary pressures, with expectations for a potential easing signal in December [2] - The Federal Reserve's core PCE in October was 3.4% year-on-year, reinforcing a cautious policy stance, with a reduced probability of a rate cut in December down to 65% [2] Market Dynamics - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing a "weak oscillation after overselling," currently positioned at the upper end of the critical range between 0.8000 and 0.8050 [3] - The market is caught in a dilemma, with the exchange rate lacking a clear trend due to the interplay of Fed policy uncertainty and the safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc [2] Future Focus Areas - Key attention will be on the Federal Reserve's December meeting and Powell's statements, which could influence the USD/CHF exchange rate towards the 0.8150-0.8180 range if a pause in rate cuts is indicated [4] - The SNB's policy direction in December will be crucial; any signal of rate cuts or negative rates could push the exchange rate closer to the 0.8000 mark [4] - Economic data from the U.S. and Switzerland, including core PCE and Q3 GDP details, will directly impact policy expectations [4] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fluctuations in international gold prices may strengthen the Swiss franc if risk aversion increases [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to tight liquidity during the tax period and a sharp decline in the A - share market, the bond market fluctuated narrowly with slightly rising yields, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][3][10]. - As of November 21, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a relatively low historical level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 13BP, at an extremely low historical position. Considering the economic situation and market sentiment, the probability of a bond market rebound is higher, and the spreads are expected to compress [2][3][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - **Ultra - long Bond Review**: Last week, tight tax - period liquidity, a sharp A - share decline led to a narrow - range bond market with slightly rising yields and a small decline in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][10]. - **Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook** - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of November 21, the 30 - 10 spread was 34BP. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth at about 4.2% (down 1.1% from September), and deflation risks remained. The bond market is likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of November 21, the 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 13BP. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the 20 - year CDB bond variety spread is expected to continue compressing [3][12]. - **Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview**: As of October 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion, accounting for 15.0% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (November 17 - 21, 2025), ultra - long bond issuance decreased to 886 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds were 811 billion, and bank sub - bonds were 65 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds were 395 billion, 20 - year were 191 billion, and 30 - year were 300 billion [18]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: This week's announced ultra - long bond issuance plan is 155 billion yuan, mainly including 153.8 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 926.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bonds. The trading activity increased slightly compared to the previous week [28]. - **Yield**: Last week, due to tight liquidity and A - share decline, bond yields rose slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed accordingly [38]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond term spread remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 14% percentile since 2010 [49]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond variety spread narrowed, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread and 20 - year railway - treasury spread decreased by 2BP, at the 11% and 12% percentiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 closed at 115.57 yuan, down 0.51%. Trading volume increased slightly, and open interest decreased slightly [54].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market has experienced a historic decline, with all 70 cities reporting price drops for two consecutive months, marking a significant shift in the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][3][5]. Summary by Category Housing Market Trends - In October, the average new home price in 70 major cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, both showing an expanded decline compared to September [5][9]. - This marks the first time since 2011 that all 70 cities have seen a month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices for two consecutive months [5][11]. City-Specific Performance - Among first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai being the only city to see a slight increase of 0.3% [7]. - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities dropped by 0.9% month-on-month, with a continuous decline observed over the past six months, indicating a more severe downturn compared to second and third-tier cities [7][9]. Economic Implications - Experts express concerns about deflation risks due to the ongoing decline in housing prices, which may negatively impact consumer confidence and spending [11][17]. - The real estate sector's downturn is expected to persist, potentially exacerbating deflationary pressures in the economy [11][18]. Market Segmentation - Despite the overall decline, certain high-quality projects continue to attract buyers, indicating a market segmentation where "good properties" remain in demand [13]. - Some older projects are resorting to significant discounts and promotional offers to attract customers, reflecting the competitive pressure in the market [13]. Policy and Market Response - The National Bureau of Statistics acknowledges the fluctuations in the real estate market but emphasizes that policy effects are still being realized, with ongoing efforts to reduce inventory [15]. - The total unsold commercial housing area decreased to 75.606 million square meters by the end of October, continuing a trend of reduction over the past eight months [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth continued to slow down in October, inflation slightly rebounded, and the growth rate of financial data declined comprehensively. The overall economy still faced pressure. The bond market first rose and then fell, with ultra - long bonds slightly increasing [1][4][10][43]. - The probability of a bond market rebound is higher. The economic stabilization since the fourth quarter of last year mainly came from the central government's leverage increase. Considering the low probability of additional treasury bond issuance in the fourth quarter of this year, the government bond financing growth rate is expected to continue to decline, and the domestic economy will still be under pressure. On the other hand, the central bank resumed treasury bond trading, and investors rushed to get a head - start at the end of the year, with positive investor sentiment [2][3][11][12]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically with the bond market rebound. For the 20 - year China Development Bank bond, the variety spread is expected to continue to compress in the short term [2][3][11][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra - long Bond Review**: The bond market first rose and then fell last week, with ultra - long bonds slightly increasing. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly decreased but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread widened [1][4][10]. - **Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook** - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of November 16, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically with the bond market rebound [2][11]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bond**: As of November 16, the spread between the 20 - year China Development Bank bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 7BP, at a historically low position. The variety spread of the 20 - year China Development Bank bond is expected to continue to compress in the short term [3][12]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion. As of October 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years totaled 239,836 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties [13]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 27.0%, local government bonds 67.5%, policy - based financial bonds 1.9%, government agency bonds 1.7%, commercial bank sub - debt 0.4%, corporate bonds 0.4%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium - term notes 1.0%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0% [13]. - By remaining maturity, bonds with a maturity of 14 - 18 years accounted for 25.2%, 18 - 25 years 29.1%, 25 - 35 years 39.8%, and over 35 years 5.9% [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was large last week (November 10 - 16, 2025), totaling 1,330 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the week before last. By variety, treasury bonds were 270 billion, local government bonds 1,042 billion, and medium - term notes 18 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds were 293 billion, 20 - year bonds 197 billion, and 30 - year bonds 840 billion [19]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 891 billion, including 811 billion in ultra - long local government bonds and 80 billion in ultra - long commercial bank sub - debt [25]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Ultra - long bonds were actively traded last week, with a trading volume of 8,782 billion, accounting for 10.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly decreased. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume decreased by 2,169 billion, and the proportion decreased by 1.9% [28]. - **Yield**: The bond market first rose and then fell last week, with ultra - long bonds slightly increasing. The yields of different types of ultra - long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by - 1BP, - 1BP, - 1BP, and 5BP respectively [43]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 34BP, unchanged from the week before last, at the 14% percentile since 2010 [51]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spreads between the 20 - year China Development Bank bond and treasury bond, and between the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond were 15BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and 3BP compared to the week before last, at the 12% and 14% percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 116.16 yuan, an increase of 0.18%. The total trading volume was 525,600 lots (- 48,236 lots), and the open interest was 179,300 lots (- 1,250 lots). The trading volume slightly decreased, and the open interest slightly decreased compared to the week before last [56].

Core Insights - The global energy market is experiencing volatility due to rapid industry development, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand imbalances [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has risen nearly 15% for 2025, but the underlying fundamentals appear unstable [3][8] - There is a significant divergence between the soaring gold prices and the declining oil prices, reminiscent of the 2008 market conditions [3][8] Commodity Price Trends - Gold is trading around $4,000 per ounce, while oil is at approximately $40 per barrel, indicating a stark contrast in performance [3] - The WTI crude oil is entering a "low-price recovery" phase, which will impact natural gas and gasoline prices, currently around $2 per million BTU and $2 per gallon, respectively [3][8] - The agricultural sector, particularly soybeans, is becoming a focal point, with $11 per bushel for soybeans seen as a critical resistance level for 2026 [4][8] Agricultural Market Outlook - If soybeans can maintain above $11 per bushel, it may signal bullish trends for the grain and energy markets [4] - However, the likelihood of sustained prices above 2025 averages for soybeans, corn, wheat, oil, and natural gas is low due to oversupply concerns [4][8] - Historical patterns suggest that after significant price increases, commodities tend to correct, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [4][7] Market Dynamics and Risks - The overall commodity price increase is primarily driven by the metal sector, with gold's surge diverging from fundamental values [7][8] - The performance of the Bloomberg Commodity Index relative to the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index indicates potential systemic risks if the U.S. stock market experiences a downturn [11]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists report that the Bank of Thailand may require evidence of worsening growth before considering further interest rate cuts, while also highlighting emerging concerns about deflation risks [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy - The latest minutes from the Bank of Thailand's monetary policy committee indicate that policymakers believe further rate cuts should be contingent on actual evidence of deteriorating growth [1] - The committee has begun to pay attention to deflation risks, a topic that was not previously mentioned in recent policy meetings [1] Committee Insights - Barclays notes that among the two members who supported a rate cut in the October meeting, at least one advocated for further easing based on concerns about deflation [1]