韩国央行已将2024年通胀预期由2.0%上调至2.1%，并将2025年通胀预期调整为2.0%。这一调整表明， 尽管核心通胀略有缓和，但中期价格压力仍被评估为略高于此前判断。 数据显示，推动通胀的主要因素包括食品和非酒精饮料价格同比上涨4.7%、交通成本上升3.2%、餐饮 住宿价格上涨2.9%，以及住房和公用事业成本上涨1.2%。官方指出，韩元贬值推高进口成本，叠加政 府于10月部分取消燃油税补贴，共同导致燃料及相关支出上涨。 分析人士指出，稳定的通胀读数叠加楼市持续过热，使韩国央行在货币政策路径上趋于谨慎。在全球主 要经济体货币政策分化加剧的背景下，韩国若推迟降息时点，可能对跨境资本流动及区域金融市场情绪 产生外溢效应。 与此同时，房地产市场热度不减。据韩国房地产委员会数据，截至11月24日，首尔公寓价格已连续43周 上涨。这一趋势引发韩国央行对金融失衡风险的持续警惕。 韩国11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，与10月涨幅持平，略高于市场此前预期的2.3%中位 值。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI同比上涨2.0%，较10月的2.2%有所回落。整体与核心 通胀率目前均维持在韩国央行设定的2 ...

Core Insights - A recently auctioned foreclosed property in the popular Bojingting community of Ningbo's Eastern New Town has garnered significant attention due to its unique location and high demand [1][3] - The property, with a total area of 134.28 square meters, was appraised at 6.3 million yuan, with a starting bid set at 4.41 million yuan [1][3] Auction Details - The auction attracted nearly 30,000 online viewers and 8 registered bidders, leading to 49 rounds of bidding within the first 9 minutes [3] - The final transaction price was 6.016 million yuan, approximately 44,800 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 36.4% premium over the starting price [3][5] Market Comparison - Despite the high premium, the final price is still lower compared to previous years, with a similar property selling for 7.525 million yuan in August 2023 and another larger unit fetching 24.495 million yuan earlier this year [5] - The competitive nature of foreclosed properties in popular neighborhoods like Bojingting indicates sustained market interest and investor confidence in Ningbo's Eastern New Town real estate sector [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, with expectations of declining new housing supply in July and a mixed performance across different city tiers [4][5][9]. Core Insights - In July, new housing supply is expected to decrease by 32% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year, reaching a low point for the year, with significant reductions in supply from major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5][9]. - The supply structure is shifting towards improvement-oriented products, with 40% of new supply targeting first-time buyers, 45% for upgrades, and 15% for high-end products [11][12]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 29%, reflecting a 15 percentage point decrease month-on-month but a slight increase year-on-year [16][18]. Summary by Sections Supply Overview - In July, the total new housing supply across 28 key cities is estimated at 5.13 million square meters, marking a 32% decrease from the previous month and a 29% decline year-on-year [5][11]. - First-tier cities, particularly Beijing, are expected to maintain higher supply levels, while other cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing significant reductions [7][9]. City Tier Analysis - Over 80% of second-tier cities are expected to see a decline in supply, with notable drops in cities like Qingdao and Changchun [9][10]. - Third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle, with a 10% month-on-month decrease and a 37% year-on-year decline in supply [9][10]. Supply Structure - The supply structure is increasingly focused on improvement needs, with nearly 70% of cities prioritizing main urban areas for new housing projects [11][13]. - Cities like Kunming and Wuxi have a high proportion of first-time buyer products, while cities like Beijing and Chengdu are focusing more on improvement-oriented offerings [12][13]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continued low level of new home transactions, with potential for a slight recovery due to low year-on-year comparisons [16]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with core areas maintaining high demand while peripheral projects face challenges [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [5]. Core Insights - The market heat is gradually recovering, influenced by the Spring Festival and the 924 policy, with a notable year-on-year sales increase of 6.7% in February, despite a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [1]. - The sales thresholds for the top 10 real estate companies have significantly increased, indicating a more competitive landscape [2]. - Central state-owned enterprises continue to outperform private firms in terms of sales growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2% for central enterprises compared to a decline of 23.5% for private enterprises [3]. - Signs of stabilization in the housing market are emerging, particularly in key cities where resource reserves are abundant, suggesting potential for valuation recovery for companies in these areas [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In February, the sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 5.4% month-on-month but increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales amount for January-February showing a slight decline of 1.4% year-on-year [1]. - The KMI index for new and second-hand housing transactions in 50 cities indicates a recovery, with week-on-week increases of 6.7% and 12.6%, respectively [1]. Company Performance - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 real estate companies reached 128 billion, 51 billion, 34 billion, 16 billion, and 6 billion respectively, with the top 10 showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - Among the top 50 companies, 19 reported year-on-year sales growth, with six companies achieving over 50% growth [3]. Future Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for companies with substantial resource reserves in key cities, recommending specific companies such as Chengdu Investment Holdings and China Merchants Shekou [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery and stable cash flow for property management companies as the market stabilizes [4].