（原标题：香港二手房价格微跌 呈磨底企稳迹象） 10月3日，中原地产在官网发布最新数据，于9月22日至28日当周，衡量香港二手房价格的中原城市领先 指数按周下跌0.2%，至139.94。 2025年，香港仅将印花税政策调整为楼价400万港元及以下住宅单位的印花税从6万港元降至100港元,政 策力度弱于2023-2024年的全面"撤辣"措施。尽管如此,2025年上半年内地买家占比提升至17.74%(2020年 仅5.90%),为市场注入新增需求。 香港经济回暖，带来收入预期改善,叠加阶段性宽松利率环境(如HIBOR短期下降),支撑楼市初步止跌。 2025年1-8月私人住宅房价指数仅微跌0.24%,显示价格磨底后企稳迹象。 中原城市领先指数显示,香港二手房价格在2025年二季度延续企稳迹象,中小型单位(100平方米以下)价格 环比上涨0.2%,大型单位(100平方米及以上)环比下跌2.7%。同比跌幅收窄至-3.8%(中小型)和-5.8%(大型), 较2024年四季度的同比跌幅有所改善。 2025年新房成交中,新界低价盘(如十四鄉、屯門、将軍澳)热度较高,成交量占比达50%,而中心城区库存 压力仍存。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market is expected to remain under pressure for at least two more years, with a stabilization in first-tier cities not anticipated until mid-2026 [1][3][5]. Market Conditions - UBS analyst Lin Zhenhong revised his earlier optimistic forecast from early 2026 to mid-2026 due to disappointing second-quarter data [5]. - Inventory turnover in first-tier cities increased from 14 months in March to 20.7 months by June, indicating a significant backlog of unsold properties [5]. - Recent data from CRIC shows that new home sales in 30 key cities fell to 823 million square meters, a month-on-month drop of 29% and a year-on-year decrease of 20% [6]. Sales Performance - First-tier cities experienced substantial declines in sales: - Beijing: 300,000 square meters, down 41% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [6]. - Shanghai: 360,000 square meters, down 35% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year [6]. - Guangzhou: 500,000 square meters, down 37% month-on-month and 25% year-on-year [6]. - Shenzhen: 230,000 square meters, down 30% month-on-month and 35% year-on-year [7]. Developer Strategies - Developers are implementing aggressive strategies to stimulate sales, such as Guangzhou's state-owned enterprise offering a "price guarantee" for buyers [8]. - This tactic aims to address consumer concerns about falling prices, but it is viewed as a short-term measure rather than a sustainable solution for market stabilization [8]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of a market rebound by 2025 is considered very low, with the need for significant policy changes and economic recovery to support a turnaround [9][10]. - Key factors for recovery include the effectiveness of policy adjustments and the overall economic environment, particularly consumer confidence and employment stability [10]. Market Sentiment - Despite the current challenges, there are signs of market self-adjustment, with total new home inventory decreasing compared to last year [11]. - A cautious optimism is advised, as the market is expected to eventually return to rationality, although this may take until 2026 or later [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the central bank indicates a shift in focus towards stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing the revitalization of existing properties and land, rather than merely preventing further decline [1][4]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Stabilization - The central bank's new statement highlights the need to "consolidate the stability of the real estate market," suggesting a recognition of positive trends in the sector [4][5]. - There is a notable increase in the acquisition of idle land, with 26 provinces and cities announcing projects covering 4,259 plots, amounting to approximately 477.65 billion yuan [6][7]. - The land acquisition efforts are seen as a way to clean up the market, reducing excess inventory and creating a healthier market environment [7]. Group 2: Land Auction and Price Trends - Data from the China Index Academy shows that the average floor price for residential land in 300 cities rose to 4,852 yuan per square meter from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [8]. - Major cities are experiencing significant increases in land transaction values, with Hangzhou's land sales reaching 119.88 billion yuan by June 11, 2025, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [9]. - The rising land prices are contributing to an upward trend in new home prices, with many cities seeing continuous price increases [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The stabilization of the real estate market is characterized by a reduction in new home inventory and an increase in the supply of quality land, which is expected to enhance overall new home prices [11][12]. - The second-hand housing market is primarily focused on maintaining transaction volumes, although prices are currently in a state of price-volume trade-off [12]. - The recovery in the real estate market is largely structural and concentrated in major cities, with a significant shift in supply-demand dynamics [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent favorable policies in the real estate market, including interest rate cuts and increased housing demand, have led to a stabilization of the market, particularly in Guangzhou, where high-quality residential projects are experiencing significant sales success [1][29]. Group 1: Market Trends - The People's Bank of China announced a 10 basis point reduction in both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) on May 20, contributing to a more optimistic outlook for the real estate market [1]. - During the "May Day" holiday, Guangzhou's real estate market saw a 30% increase in the number of visits to residential projects and a 73% increase in sales [1]. - The luxury real estate market in Guangzhou is showing signs of recovery, with a total of 510 high-end properties sold in the first four months of 2025, averaging 127 sales per month at a price of approximately 69,000 yuan per square meter [29][30]. Group 2: Company Performance - Poly Developments' "Tian" series projects have dominated the luxury market in Guangzhou, with significant sales figures, including nearly 10 billion yuan in sales for the Poly Zhujiang Tianyue project and 33 billion yuan for the Poly Tianyao project within just two days [3][7]. - Poly Developments has consistently ranked first in Guangzhou for land acquisition and sales volume, showcasing its strong market presence and brand reputation [5][6]. - The company's focus on high-quality product design and customer-centric services has contributed to its success in the competitive luxury real estate market [6][9]. Group 3: Product Features - The "Tian" series projects are strategically located in high-demand areas such as Zhujiang New Town and Pazhou, benefiting from unique geographical advantages and comprehensive amenities [9][20]. - Poly's projects emphasize high-quality materials and innovative designs, such as the use of luxury stones and unique architectural features, enhancing the overall living experience for residents [20][23]. - The company is committed to providing a holistic living experience, integrating customer feedback into product design and service delivery, which is reflected in the high demand for its properties [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [5]. Core Insights - The market heat is gradually recovering, influenced by the Spring Festival and the 924 policy, with a notable year-on-year sales increase of 6.7% in February, despite a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [1]. - The sales thresholds for the top 10 real estate companies have significantly increased, indicating a more competitive landscape [2]. - Central state-owned enterprises continue to outperform private firms in terms of sales growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2% for central enterprises compared to a decline of 23.5% for private enterprises [3]. - Signs of stabilization in the housing market are emerging, particularly in key cities where resource reserves are abundant, suggesting potential for valuation recovery for companies in these areas [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In February, the sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 5.4% month-on-month but increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales amount for January-February showing a slight decline of 1.4% year-on-year [1]. - The KMI index for new and second-hand housing transactions in 50 cities indicates a recovery, with week-on-week increases of 6.7% and 12.6%, respectively [1]. Company Performance - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 real estate companies reached 128 billion, 51 billion, 34 billion, 16 billion, and 6 billion respectively, with the top 10 showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - Among the top 50 companies, 19 reported year-on-year sales growth, with six companies achieving over 50% growth [3]. Future Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for companies with substantial resource reserves in key cities, recommending specific companies such as Chengdu Investment Holdings and China Merchants Shekou [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery and stable cash flow for property management companies as the market stabilizes [4].