从供需基本面看，市场已陷入严重失衡。住建部数据显示，全国持有两套及以上房产的家庭占比达 42%，而空置房数量超过 1.2 亿套，足够 3.6 亿人居住。与此同时，每年仍有上千万套新房入市，2025 年商品房待售面积已攀升至 7.6 亿平方米，叠加生育率走低、城市化率达 65% 后的需求放缓，新增购 房动力显著不足。 来源：大伟看楼市 曹德旺对房地产市场的警示，始终植根于 "房子回归居住本质" 的核心判断。这位深耕实业数十年的企 业家早有预判："房子本质上仅是砖块与水泥的组合，难以长期维持增值属性，可能演变为富人之间的 接力游戏"。其观点并非空穴来风，而是基于三重现实考量： 从市场趋势看，泡沫挤压期远未结束。国家统计局数据显示，2025 年上半年新建商品房销售面积与销 售额分别同比下降 3.5% 和 5.5%，百城房价已连续下跌 30 多月，郑州、天津等二线城市房价较峰值跌 幅超 30%，环京区域更是近乎腰斩。曹德旺据此断言，房地产调整需 5 至 6 年才能完成，当前泡沫尚 未完全挤干。 从资产属性看，房产正从 "增值工具" 沦为 "负债包袱"。多套房家庭已普遍面临 "养房成本高、变现 难、债务压力大" 的三重 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a cyclical turning point, requiring a "soft landing" to avoid systemic risks and ensure stable economic development [2][3][4] Market Adjustment - The real estate market is undergoing a profound adjustment, with new residential prices in 70 major cities down 4.7% year-on-year and second-hand home prices down 6.2% [2] - Real estate investment has seen negative growth for eight consecutive quarters, indicating a departure from the previous high-growth era [2] - The current market changes are attributed to multiple factors, including demographic shifts, urbanization evolution, and economic development model transformation [2] Soft Landing Strategy - The concept of "soft landing" emphasizes strategic foresight to achieve a smooth transition in the real estate market, avoiding drastic declines and systemic financial risks [3] - Real estate companies are urged to abandon past extensive growth models in favor of quality and efficiency-focused growth paths [3] Economic Significance - The stability of the real estate market is crucial for the macroeconomy, contributing 22% to GDP and providing over 160 million jobs [4] - A "hard landing" in the real estate market could lead to significant economic repercussions [4] Housing as a Necessity - The emphasis on housing as a necessity rather than a speculative asset reflects both national policy direction and market logic [7] - The demand structure for housing is changing, with improvement and elderly housing needs becoming mainstream [7] Regional Market Divergence - There is a noticeable divergence in the real estate market, with first-tier cities showing signs of price stabilization while third and fourth-tier cities face inventory pressure [8] - Future opportunities in the real estate market will be structural, favoring projects with excellent locations and quality [8] Policy Support - Recent policy measures aim to guide the market towards a "soft landing," including relaxed purchase restrictions and lower down payment ratios [9] Financial Sector Adaptation - Financial institutions are gradually shifting their attitudes, with a 3.1% year-on-year increase in real estate loan balances reported by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [11] Consumer Behavior Shift - Homebuyers are becoming more rational, focusing on housing's residential attributes rather than speculative potential [12] Vanke's Resilience - Vanke Group's "survival first" philosophy has positioned it advantageously during market adjustments, with a sales figure of 287.9 billion yuan and a net debt ratio of 68.3% [13] Urban Development Dynamics - The adjustment in the real estate market will significantly impact urban development, prompting local governments to seek new growth drivers [15] Future Outlook - The real estate industry still holds vast development potential, with new opportunities arising from urban renewal, rural revitalization, and green building initiatives [17] - The industry is expected to return to rationality, focusing on residential needs [17]

Core Insights - The domestic real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, with local developers becoming the main players as top-tier companies retreat from second and third-tier cities [1][3][5] - In Zibo, the real estate market is experiencing a reshuffle, with local firms taking the lead in land acquisition and project development [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Local developers, such as Shandong Jinxiangshu Real Estate Co., are increasingly dominating land acquisition in Zibo, evidenced by the competitive bidding for key plots [2][3] - The sales performance of local firms has improved, with companies like Fangzheng Real Estate and Jinyicheng Real Estate showing significant sales figures, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][6] - The absence of major national developers like Vanke and Country Garden in Zibo's central urban area highlights the diminishing presence of top-tier firms in smaller cities [3][5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has shifted, with local firms leveraging their regional knowledge and reputation to capture market share previously held by larger companies [3][8] - The introduction of innovative building concepts, such as passive housing by Fangzheng Real Estate, reflects a growing trend among local developers to enhance product quality and sustainability [8][9] - The ongoing competition between local and county-level developers is seen as a structural reform in the supply side of the real estate market, leading to increased diversity and options for consumers [9][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus on high-quality residential projects is expected to continue, with local firms aiming to set new standards in design and construction [9][10] - As the market evolves, companies that prioritize understanding consumer needs and refining their products are likely to emerge as leaders in the changing landscape [10]