2025年秋天，全国楼市又一次站到了风口浪尖上。这一次，不是"房价冲天"，而是"挂牌爆表"：二手房 在售量突破750万套，创下历史纪录。 与此同时，70个大中城市里有68个房价下跌。一边是卖不出去的房子在堆着，一边是买不起也不想买的 年轻人在观望着。 问题是——这波下跌，是"刮骨疗伤"，还是"病入膏肓"？未来三年，是继续向下，还是悄悄筑底？咱们 得把这盘棋的局势看清楚，才能知道该不该出手。 北京、上海、深圳这些一线城市也不再坚不可摧，部分区域二手房价格比2022年最高点掉了三四成。深 圳某些地段甚至跌了超过40%。这不是"价格松动"，而是"地基松动"。 二手房市场更是冷如冰窖。挂牌量虽然冲上750万套的天花板，但成交量却持续低迷。挂牌多、成交 少，意味着什么？房主想卖，买家不敢买，"有价无市"的僵局越拉越长。 这种局面背后，是购房者对未来的不确定感——收入增长慢、就业不稳、政策预期模糊，大家宁愿观 望，也不愿轻举妄动。 城市之间的差距也在迅速拉大。一线城市核心区还算稳得住，像北京西城的学区房，还能扛住价格；但 只要出了环线，价格立马跳水。 三四线城市更是惨烈，部分地方新房价格跌到了3000元一平米以下，几乎回 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a cyclical turning point, requiring a "soft landing" to avoid systemic risks and ensure stable economic development [2][3][4] Market Adjustment - The real estate market is undergoing a profound adjustment, with new residential prices in 70 major cities down 4.7% year-on-year and second-hand home prices down 6.2% [2] - Real estate investment has seen negative growth for eight consecutive quarters, indicating a departure from the previous high-growth era [2] - The current market changes are attributed to multiple factors, including demographic shifts, urbanization evolution, and economic development model transformation [2] Soft Landing Strategy - The concept of "soft landing" emphasizes strategic foresight to achieve a smooth transition in the real estate market, avoiding drastic declines and systemic financial risks [3] - Real estate companies are urged to abandon past extensive growth models in favor of quality and efficiency-focused growth paths [3] Economic Significance - The stability of the real estate market is crucial for the macroeconomy, contributing 22% to GDP and providing over 160 million jobs [4] - A "hard landing" in the real estate market could lead to significant economic repercussions [4] Housing as a Necessity - The emphasis on housing as a necessity rather than a speculative asset reflects both national policy direction and market logic [7] - The demand structure for housing is changing, with improvement and elderly housing needs becoming mainstream [7] Regional Market Divergence - There is a noticeable divergence in the real estate market, with first-tier cities showing signs of price stabilization while third and fourth-tier cities face inventory pressure [8] - Future opportunities in the real estate market will be structural, favoring projects with excellent locations and quality [8] Policy Support - Recent policy measures aim to guide the market towards a "soft landing," including relaxed purchase restrictions and lower down payment ratios [9] Financial Sector Adaptation - Financial institutions are gradually shifting their attitudes, with a 3.1% year-on-year increase in real estate loan balances reported by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [11] Consumer Behavior Shift - Homebuyers are becoming more rational, focusing on housing's residential attributes rather than speculative potential [12] Vanke's Resilience - Vanke Group's "survival first" philosophy has positioned it advantageously during market adjustments, with a sales figure of 287.9 billion yuan and a net debt ratio of 68.3% [13] Urban Development Dynamics - The adjustment in the real estate market will significantly impact urban development, prompting local governments to seek new growth drivers [15] Future Outlook - The real estate industry still holds vast development potential, with new opportunities arising from urban renewal, rural revitalization, and green building initiatives [17] - The industry is expected to return to rationality, focusing on residential needs [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience and challenges of the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for proactive policies to address potential downturns and maintain stability [2][13]. Group 1: Real Estate Market - The real estate market has likely passed its most dangerous phase, with a soft landing expected, despite concerns about its impact on the macro economy [3][5]. - The contribution of real estate to GDP has significantly decreased, projected to be around 13 trillion yuan, or 9.6% of GDP in 2024, down from approximately 14.5% in previous years [3]. - The "gray rhino" effect, particularly regarding debt repayment issues faced by companies like Vanke, has not worsened as anticipated, with liquidity issues being managed through asset disposal rather than relying solely on sales [4][5]. Group 2: Export Challenges - Exports are expected to face challenges in the second half, but fears of a drastic decline may underestimate China's export resilience and overestimate the "export rush" effect [6][7]. - The "export rush" phenomenon contributed an estimated 3-10 percentage points to the 7.2% year-on-year export growth in the first half, but its overall impact may be less significant than previously thought [6]. - The potential for a "cliff-like" drop in exports is unlikely, as negotiations regarding tariffs and trade with the U.S. have shown some signs of resolution, and there is growth potential in exports to regions like Latin America and ASEAN [7]. Group 3: Consumption Policies - Expanding consumption is a strategic focus, with ongoing policies expected to support a trend towards increased consumer spending [8][10]. - The "old-for-new" policy has shown positive results, driving sales of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan and boosting retail sales growth by nearly 2 percentage points [9]. - The remaining fiscal funds for consumption policies are projected to leverage around 1.1 trillion yuan in sales, with a broader range of policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending capacity and addressing supply constraints [9][10]. Group 4: Price Effects and Economic Stability - Addressing low price effects is a core focus of current policies, with attention on macro debt rates, profit margins, and cost trends [11]. - Despite some improvements in technology and industry upgrades, profit levels have not improved sufficiently, leading to concerns about the "involution" issue affecting pricing [11]. - The negative growth of the GDP deflator index highlights the need for macro policy responses to prevent accelerated economic contraction [11][12].