Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "high rebound and stabilization" pattern, with spot gold struggling to break the key resistance level of $3,760 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,749.05 per ounce, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day [2]. Group 1: Support Factors - Central bank liquidity release provides a buffer, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 600 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth and indirectly lowering the cost of holding gold [3]. - The trend of central banks in emerging markets continuing to purchase gold is expected to lead to over 1,000 tons of gold bought globally in 2024, with this trend persisting into 2025, providing fundamental support for gold prices [3]. - The physical consumption market is showing resilience, with leading domestic gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising prices to 1,098 yuan per gram and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram respectively, indicating strong consumer demand despite high gold prices [4]. Group 2: Pressuring Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals are causing market fluctuations, with mixed expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts in November, leading to a short-term stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, which suppresses upward movement in gold prices [5]. - Technical resistance is significant at the $3,760 per ounce level, which coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level since gold's rise from $3,300, compounded by selling pressure from previously trapped positions [6]. - The low level of 550,000 open contracts in COMEX gold indicates that institutional funds are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding breaking through key price levels, lacking the momentum to push gold prices higher [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillation pattern due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors [7].

首先，美国介入中东局势，A 股表现出韧性。周末，以色列和伊朗的军事冲突有所升级，美国参与 了对伊朗的空袭行动，正式加入了地区战局。这意味着未来中东局势将进一步复杂多变。然而，周一的 亚太股市却普遍低开高走，日韩股市最终微跌，而 A 股和港股市场双双收红，这说明国内市场仍具备 一定韧性，短期箱体波动的特征尚未改变。目前来看，国内政策动向是投资者短期关注的焦点以及行情 运行的主要线索。 但均在年内高点附近遇到较强技术阻力，产生回落。本周一沪指低开后在 60 天均线上方便展开了快速 反弹，这提示我们目前 60 天均线附近的支撑力度仍然较强。当然，年内高点附近的技术压力同样不 小。 其次，两市低开高走，成交略增。周一，两市低开后，逐级向上反弹，沪指收盘于全天高点附近， 并收回五天均线。深圳成指的盘中反弹被五天均线压制，反弹力度弱于沪市。两市量能为 1.1 万亿元左 右，总体较温和。微观结构上，全天个股涨多跌少，涨停股票数量较多。当天市场热点主要集中在 TMT 和上游能源行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅领先。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 从市场运行节奏 ...

Group 1 - The external and internal environment has improved, leading to a market rebound as international trade conflicts have not escalated and negotiations with the US have begun [1] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut to support the real economy, encouraging market sentiment and slightly shifting the focus upward [1] - The market has entered an earnings vacuum period after the annual and quarterly reports have been disclosed, with thematic investments becoming more active [1] Group 2 - The two markets experienced a volatile rebound with increased trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index has continuously risen and filled the gap from April 7 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed a catch-up characteristic but has not yet filled the upper gap, indicating a mixed performance [1] - Market hotspots last week were mainly concentrated in the military and high-end manufacturing sectors, with a general upward trend across various investment styles [1]