热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 新浪合作平台光大期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周三，大宗商品涨多跌少，有色金属普遍反弹，前期一贯偏弱的氧化铝出现超跌修复，日内价格最大涨 幅超2%。一方面，昨夜公布的美国3季度GDP大幅增长4.3%，创两年内最快增速，提振需求预期；另一 方面，强劲的数据并未影响未来的降息预期，从特朗普表态来看明年流动性宽松预期仍是在加强。在宏 观情绪继续回暖的背景下，氧化铝更具估值优势，或较易出现反弹走势。 然而，从基本面角度来看，几内亚进口矿供应仍有增量预期，该国铝土矿增加发运叠加大型矿业复产， 给予近远期矿石到港支撑。因新疆交割库利润不再，仓单开始外流，同时进口氧化铝增量，持续给予现 货氧化铝增压，氧化铝现货高升水持续收窄，对盘面走势同样构成压力。随着宏观情绪计价完毕，氧化 铝反弹仍阻力重重，需结合港口库存和现货报价谨慎对待近期上涨态势。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 交易咨询资格：Z0017563 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源 ...

12月19日，和讯投顾陈炜表示，今天市场终于迎来了全面普涨，在昨日行情基础上成功收获三连阳。这 时候大家肯定都在想，市场是不是就此稳了呢？从今天整体情况来看，大家在市场里的体验感相当不 错，市场确实更偏向于稳定了。为啥这么说呢？一方面，宏观层面利好消息不少。大家都知道，老美降 息预期再度抬升，而日本加息落地，且力度低于预期。这么一来，整个市场的宏观环境偏暖。从市场格 局来看，三连阳之后指数重新回到了震荡区间，也就是说指数进入了调整后的震荡阶段。接下来一段时 间，市场没有更大的利空消息，进入利空真空期，大概率会维持震荡节奏，开启新阶段。 这其实是一次市场的再平衡。大家注意，前期涨幅较高的科技股等主线板块，今天表现偏弱，前期炒过 的板块基本维持震荡或滞涨格局。这一点从双创指数走势偏弱就能得到佐证。而权a等权指数今天涨幅 较好，低位个股的普涨表明市场正在进行再度平衡，高位板块暂时停下脚步，低位超跌板块开始向上修 复。市场进入这样的阶段，要想行情从当前位置形成真正的底部或者持续大涨，或许需要有新的主线出 现。目前来看，市场仍处于震荡酝酿过程中。 不过，从今天的市场表现来看，主线性并不清晰。虽说今天主要拉升的是大消费类 ...

十年国债ETF（511260）跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取剩余期限7到10年且在上交所挂牌的国债作为 样本，久期恒定。从过往表现来看，十年国债ETF（511260）成立以来净值屡创新高，历史业绩持续稳 健。根据基金定期报告，截止三季度末，近1年回报率达4.17%，近3年回报率达14.04%，近5年回报率 达23.39%，成立至今累计回报率达35.77%。 值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年-2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金 ...

总结来看，可以关注十年国债ETF（511260）这种中长久期的品种。十年国债ETF（511260）是目前唯 一一只跟踪十年期国债指数的ETF，十年国债在市场上具有基准性的地位，具有较好的配置价值，感兴 趣的投资者可以关注十年国债ETF（511260）。 债券市场，核心观点是利好支撑，中期向好。虽然今天市场出现一定回调，但市场首先有需求层面的支 撑：现实需求层面受到供需错配等多方面因素影响，PPI已连续三十多个月处于负值区间；一系列反内 卷政策，体现了政策制定者的重视方向从量到价的转变。但大家都知道，供给侧改革除了需要对工业产 成品进行一定控价外，认为对需求侧的刺激，尤其是利率层面的托底，也是必不可少的。唯有如此，价 格负反馈螺旋才有望提前结束，否则等待市场自然出清，还需要较为漫长的时间。 第二是政策方面的支持。重磅会议对此有详细部署，这里就不赘述了，其中货币政策要保持流动性充 裕，推动社会融资成本综合下行。大家也能看到，近期市场中，利率债出现了一定波动，但我们认为这 更多是受情绪层面的影响，市场实际上已进入情绪超调阶段，这是受到反内卷系列政策的刺激。今年下 半年以来，股票和商品表现相对较好，相对而言，债券市场 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者帅可聪 北京报道 2025年12月17日，A股三大指数平开高走，午后盘中大幅拉升，上证指数收涨逾1%，创业板指大涨超 3%。全市场逾3600只个股收涨，沐曦股份（688802.SH）上市首日股价暴涨693%。 深证成指创近三个月最大涨幅 12月17日，继前一天大幅下挫后，A股三大指数基本平开。早盘时段，上证指数维持弱势震荡，深证成 指、创业板指表现相对较强。午后，三大指数盘中大幅拉升，最终集体收于全天高位。 截至当天收盘，上证指数涨1.19%，报3870.28点；深证成指涨2.4%，报13224.51点；创业板指涨 3.39%，报3175.91点。此外，沪深300指数涨1.83%，北证50指数微跌0.04%，科创50指数涨2.47%。 其中，上证指数创10月21日以来最大单日涨幅，深证成指创9月11日以来最大涨幅，创业板指创10月24 日以来最大涨幅。 A股沪、深、京三市全天总成交额约1.83万亿元，较前一日放量逾860亿元，为连续第三个交易日成交额 不及2万亿元。 盘面上，31个申万一级行业板块多数上涨，仅农林牧渔、国防军工、煤炭板块下跌，跌幅分别为 0.54% ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 15 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场延续近强远弱格局，市场核心逻辑是现实紧平衡与远期宽松预期的博弈。美 豆维持弱势震荡，中国采购节奏偏慢无法对冲阿根廷关税下调带来的出口挤压效应，南美天气无实质 威胁下，巴西大豆丰产预期继续主导远期贴水结构。国内近月挺价基础仍在，国储拍卖溢价成交印证 区域性供给短缺，油厂开机率回升缓慢支撑基差；但远月疲软根源未解，国储下周继续抛售超 50 万 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing controlled fluctuations around the 3900-point level, indicating a balance maintained by key financial sectors, particularly insurance and brokerage firms, amidst mixed trading signals and external economic factors [1][5][32]. Market Performance - As of Wednesday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) was at 3900.50 points, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29% to 13316.42 points, and the ChiNext Index fell slightly by 0.02% to 3209.00 points [1]. - The SSE showed a narrow trading range of approximately 60 points, with a high of 3936 and a low of 3876, reflecting a typical "doji" candlestick pattern indicating indecision in the market [2][4]. Trading Dynamics - The market's movements are not purely natural but are characterized by a rhythmic push and pull, with selling pressure emerging near the 3930-3950 range and buying support appearing around the 3900 level [3][8]. - The trading behavior suggests that the 3900-point level is a target for market control, with financial heavyweights acting as proxies for index futures to maintain this level [8][12]. Sector Analysis - The insurance and brokerage sectors played a crucial role in the market's performance, with significant movements in stocks like China Ping An and China Life contributing to the index's fluctuations [6][7]. - The real estate sector received a boost from news regarding Vanke's bond extension and rumors of mortgage interest subsidies, which alleviated liquidity concerns and encouraged capital inflow into real estate stocks [9][11]. Investment Sentiment - The market's recovery from the 3876 low to the 3900 level was driven by a chain of events linking news, sector performance, and index movements, rather than a natural emotional recovery [12][13]. - The overall sentiment indicates a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal, with the market remaining in a state of oscillation rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend [15][28]. Future Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to influence market sentiment, with various scenarios projected based on the nature of the rate cut and accompanying guidance [17][19]. - The market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with key support and resistance levels identified around 3870-3880 and 3930-3950, respectively [33].

Group 1 - The non-bank financial sector has received favorable policies, contributing to a significant market rebound. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies, indicating a strategic focus on encouraging insurance capital to enter the market. Additionally, the chairman of the China Securities Association emphasized the importance of differentiated regulation and support for high-quality institutions, which has raised expectations for improved profitability among leading securities firms [1] - On Monday, the stock markets experienced a volatile rebound with a noticeable increase in trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and continued to rebound, filling the gap left on November 21, while the Shenzhen Component Index showed stronger performance, closing above all moving averages. The total trading volume for both markets was around 2 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous Friday. The main market focus was on the TMT and military industries, with technology stocks and small-cap stocks performing particularly well [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a process of rebound after a rapid adjustment. Following a quick decline in late November, the index found support above the low point from early October and has gradually stabilized and rebounded. As of Monday, the downward gap from November 21 has been successfully filled, and future attention should be paid to changes in fundamental expectations [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3924 points, up 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.6% [1] - The total market turnover was approximately 2.05 trillion, showing an increase compared to the previous period [1] Key Focus Areas - The market's rise was primarily driven by gains in non-bank financials and technology stocks, supported by insurance funds adjusting risk factors to release more investable capital [2] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, indicating a favorable policy environment [2] - Despite the A-share market's increase, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2%, suggesting weak foreign capital inflow and limited signs of savings migration [2] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap from November 21 and closed slightly above the 20-day moving average, indicating that the technical rebound target has been achieved [2] - Future movements may require consolidation rather than a sustained upward trend, with attention on the potential for a "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve [2] External Market Conditions - Overnight, U.S. stock markets saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.45% and the Nasdaq down 0.14% [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.16%, indicating a shift in bond market sentiment [3] - The A50 index and Hang Seng futures showed minor declines, reflecting a stable external environment [3] Investment Strategy - The strategy leans towards a rotational approach, focusing on sectors such as industrial machinery, satellite internet, and semiconductor equipment materials, which are seen as key areas for investment [3] - Continuous monitoring of external policy changes, including potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, is essential for guiding investment decisions [3]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：佛山市金属材料行业协会） 钢之家不锈2025年12月5日 17:24安徽 钢之家不锈钢 行情简报 每天为您总结不锈钢市场情况 导读：今日不锈钢期货主力合约2601收盘价为12500元/吨，上涨75元/吨；沪镍主力合约收盘价117790 元/吨，上涨30元/吨。今日不锈钢期货价格小幅上涨，市场信心有所提振，临近周末，多数商家调价意 愿不强，市场价格稳中偏强运行。 一、市场概述 5日，国内主要市场不锈钢价格稳定为主。今日不锈钢期货价格小幅上涨，市场信心有所提振，临近周 末，多数商家调价意愿不强，市场价格稳中偏强运行。 钢厂指导价 | 钢厂 | 材质 | 规格 | 价格 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 太钢 | 304/2B | 2. Omm | 15850 | 1 | | 太钢 | 304/No. 1 | 3.0-12mm | 14900 | - | | 太钢 | 430/2B | 2. Omm | 10100 | - | | 张浦 | 304/2B | 2. Omm | 13300 | = 8 | | 东方特钢 | 304/No. 1 | ...